11 things we learned in NFL Week 15: Dominant Dolphins, Jets turmoil, career revivals
What have we learned thus far in Week 7? FOX Sports’ staff of NFL writers joined forces to deliver insight and analysis from around the league.
In this weekly story, we’ll tell you what we noticed, what we heard and what to keep an eye on next.
1. He gets overshadowed by Tyreek Hill, but Jaylen Waddle is a No. 1 receiver
When Indianapolis Cots receiver Marvin Harrison got hurt in 2007, another playmaker stepped up for a career-best season. Reggie Wayne had long been productive. But he’d never produced quite like he did when Harrison exited the Colts’ starting lineup.
After waiting in the wings, Wayne spent the ensuing years as the team’s WR1. And he proved he was capable — all along — of being the alpha in the offense.
Something similar is happening for the Dolphins with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It doesn’t seem like Hill is dealing with a long-term injury. But in his absence on Sunday, Waddle showed the NFL why he can be every bit of a WR1 for Miami. He finished the day with eight catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. He did a lot of that work in the first half, recording six catches for 118 yards and a 60-yard touchdown.
The lack of production in the second half was due, in large part, to the team focusing on their rushing attack. New York was never really a threat to score as Miami won 30-0. In the second half, the Dolphins threw nine times and ran 15 times. It was a dominant win over the Jets, who — by the way — were touted to have one of the best CB tandems in the league, with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.
While they’ve had good seasons, they had a bad day trying to keep track of Waddle. Even when he wasn’t putting up big numbers, he was putting up game-changing plays. He made a 25-yard catch, for example, on fourth down that extended the Dolphins’ drive.
The Jets came into this game looking for an upset, particularly with quarterback Aaron Rodgers thinking about making a speedy return from his Achilles injury. New York could have given him a reason to come back. Given how incomplete the Dolphins offense has looked without Tyreek over the last two years, the Jets probably thought they had a shot.
Not so much.
Waddle helped put Miami into an early hole. And the Dolphins defense made sure the Jets remained hopeless for the entire game. —Henry McKenna
2. 49ers cruise, but their run defense is still an issue
The San Francisco 49ers did what they were supposed to do in a 45-29 victory on the road against the fledgling Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.
The victory clinched a second straight NFC West division title for the 49ers and pushed their record to 11-3 on the year. It’s the first time the 49ers have won the division in back-to-back seasons since the 2011 and 2012 campaigns.
Playing in his hometown with fans chanting his name in the stands, quarterback Brock Purdy continued his push for MVP honors, finishing 16-of-25 for 242 passing yards, with four touchdowns and no interceptions. It’s the third time Purdy has thrown for four touchdowns and no interceptions this season. No one else has done it more than once.
Purdy’s competition for top player in the league? His teammate Christian McCaffrey, who totaled 187 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. McCaffrey’s 20 total touchdowns rank second in franchise history to Jerry Rice (23 in 1987).
When asked about his MVP candidacy, Purdy lobbied for his teammate.
“I think Christian should be MVP,” Purdy said after the game. “I really do believe that. He does everything for us, runs the ball well. He catches it. He does everything. And so, in my eyes, that’s an MVP.”
While they are rolling, the 49ers have shown a weak spot that keeps popping up throughout the year — defending the run. The 49ers allowed 234 rushing yards to the Cardinals.
During the team’s three-game losing streak earlier this season, San Francisco gave up an average of 123 rushing yards a contest and 256 yards after contact in the running game during that stretch.
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said his defense missed a lot of tackles, contributing to Arizona’s big day running the football.
“We definitely didn’t play the run good enough today, which I think was pretty obvious,” Shanahan told reporters after the game. “But we came here with one thing on our mind, and that was to get a win. And that’s what we got done. And now we’ve got to make sure to clean that stuff up.”
San Francisco will face some teams that lean on the running game in the postseason, including the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has three weeks to get things right before the postseason. —Eric D. Williams
3. Cowboys‘ road, running woes stand in the way of serious contention
The Cowboys are 3-4 on the road this season, with their wins coming against the lowly Giants (5-9), Panthers (2-12), and Chargers (5-9). Their losses include that early-season nightmare against the woeful Arizona Cardinals, which was bad enough. But now it includes losses to three Super Bowl contenders — at San Francisco, at Philadelphia and at Buffalo by an average score of 34-14.
That’s pretty significant, considering the Cowboys (10-4) are very unlikely to win the NFC East, thanks to the Eagles’ soft remaining schedule. That means their road to the Super Bowl will almost certainly be entirely on the road, where they’ve consistently been at their worst.
“Honestly, it’s just unacceptable at this point,” said Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons. “There’s no excuse for it. It’s mind-boggling.”
McCarthy added: “It’s part of my message. There’s just too big of a gap in our road games. We’ve got to be much better on the road.”
It’s always something. And it happens so often, to be honest, the letdown might even be the expectation now.
No one would’ve been surprised if the Cowboys had lost to a desperate and resurgent Bills team in Buffalo The Bills are legitimately good — far better than their now 8-6 record. This always figured to be quite a fight.
Except it wasn’t a fight. It was a mauling. The Bills outgained the Cowboys 351-195 — and keep in mind that 80 of those yards came on a garbage-time touchdown drive for Dallas. The Bills held the ball for more than 35 minutes because the Cowboys defense couldn’t do anything about that. Prescott (21 of 34 for 134 yards and an interception) didn’t have 100 yards passing until midway through the fourth quarter. His MVP train was completely derailed.
Even if the faithful understandably lose faith, it still isn’t over for the Cowboys. Far from it. They are still as talented as they were a week ago. They’re still capable of making their long-awaited run to the Super Bowl. They’re even good enough to win big games on the road, even though they’ve yet to show it.
But this game was a reminder of how much can still go wrong for the Cowboys. And it was a reminder of why many expect that it will. —Ralph Vacchiano
4. Could this be the final straw for Robert Saleh, Joe Douglas or both?
Aaron Rodgers just needed a reason to play next Sunday. The New York Jets didn’t give him one. The broadcast caught Rodgers shaking his head in clear disgust while watching his team lose to the Miami Dolphins.
Later in the game, receiver Garrett Wilson spoke passionately to Rodgers on the sideline — apparently frustrated with what was happening (or not happening) for New York on Sunday. Coach Robert Saleh, meanwhile, was standing and then pacing nearby. And he looked a lot like the GIF of an in-despair Ben Affleck, staring blankly into space. (Cue the music: “Hello, darkness, my old friend.”)
From start to finish, the Jets were a sad sight in Week 15. New York looked like a team that was not in the control of its leadership, Saleh and Joe Douglas. They lost, 30-0, against the Dolphins. New York never even threatened to score.
Even leading up to the game, the Jets didn’t seem to have command. Wilson, who left the game with a concussion, was reported a few weeks ago to prefer not to return to the QB1 role despite the team hoping to replace Tim Boyle with Wilson. Ultimately, Wilson did take back his starting job. His reluctance, however, was more than a little ridiculous.
That’s embarrassing for Wilson. It’s also embarrassing for Saleh and Douglas.
Much like Wilson, Saleh has put together some really good games, but has mostly played really bad ones this year on the way to a 5-9 record.
The product has been bad enough to where you have to wonder: What do the Jets do now?
There was an outside chance Rodgers could be rejoining this team for a playoff push. Doctors cleared the quarterback to return to game action after he suffered an achilles injury in Week 1. But there really isn’t anything for him to come back to. This offense is a mess, largely due to a really bad offensive line. The defense, which had been such a selling point for Saleh’s resume, looks unimpressive. The team doesn’t have room for running back Breece Hall, whose blocking consistently fails him, and receiver Garrett Wilson, who has no other playmakers in his passing offense (which leads to defenses keying wholly on the WR1).
There is a scenario where Saleh and/or Douglas keep their jobs. After all, they didn’t get a fair shake after losing Rodgers. And if this team was built to win for Rodgers in 2023, then it would make some sense to let the whole operation ride into 2024, even if it looked ugly this year, at times.
That ignores the team’s potential without Rodgers. They shouldn’t be this bad or this inconsistent. If New York’s time is limited with Rodgers (who could retire at any moment), then the Jets can’t afford to get their coach and GM jobs wrong for 2024. It’s fair to wonder if the team’s embarrassing defeat might lead to a clearing of house for Saleh, Douglas or both. —McKenna
5. The Lions got right — and established their postseason formula
The Lions not only needed a win on Saturday, after dropping two of their last three, but needed a convincing win. They got it over the Denver Broncos and it had a lot to do with one man: center Frank Ragnow. On The Athletic Football Show, Nate Tice offered this stat: on snaps with Ragnow on the field the Lions would rank second in the league in EPA per play. Without him on the field? They’d rank 27th. Success for the Lions hinges mostly on the health of their offensive line, even with their pass-defense issues. They were able to stop a red-hot Broncos team and strengthen their grip on the NFC North in large part because Ragnow came back and the offensive line is healthier than it has been recently.
Quarterback Jared Goff threw for five touchdowns, matching a single-game career high. Three of those touchdowns went to rookie star tight end Sam LaPorta. Detroit rediscovered its run game, and more specifically, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, who had two touchdowns on the day including the first receiving touchdown of his career. Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 185 rushing yards and further exposed Denver’s run defense woes. Detroit got back to being the ‘fun Lions’ under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. The fun Lions who can outscore anyone.
Those are the Lions who need to show up in the postseason, which means their offensive-line health is paramount. Detroit could also be getting reinforcements defensively. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson is due to return for the first time since Week 2. Edge rusher James Houston has a chance to be back by the end of the month. That should be enough to reinstate that early-season confidence in the Lions once again — just in time for the playoffs. —Carmen Vitali
6. Baker Mayfield had his best game ever when the Bucs needed it most
The NFL’s best quarterbacks will tell you there is no such thing as a perfect day. Even if they completed every pass they threw, they wouldn’t all be touchdowns, so the pursuit of perfection is a theoretical one.
There is a reasonable barometer, though: 158.3.
That is the highest attainable NFL passer rating, an arcane statistic whose calculations combine completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdowns and interceptions per attempt. The Bucs pulled off a 34-20 win at the Packers on Sunday, and Mayfield went 22-for-28 for 381 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.
It was the first 158.3 of his six-year NFL career, and more impressively, it was the first 158.3 ever by an opposing quarterback at Lambeau Field — and just the second ever in that stadium, joining one Aaron Rodgers game in 2019. His yards per attempt mark Sunday was 13.6, a single yard short of the best mark by any quarterback this season, set by the 49ers’ Brock Purdy last week.
Of all places for Mayfield to pull off a perfect rating, Lambeau is an unlikely choice. Sunday was his third straight December playing there, and Green Bay hadn’t lost at home in December since 2018, winning their last nine such games. On Christmas Day 2021, he threw four interceptions in a loss for the Browns; on Dec. 19 last year, he was sacked five times in a loss for the Rams. He went there Sunday with a Bucs team that had won twice in its last 16 games at Lambeau, going back to 1990.
Mayfield won with some unlikely touchdown targets as well. His first, to Mike Evans, was their 11th touchdown this season, and his next, to running back Rachaad White, was their second in as many games. But his third was to tight end Ko Kieft, his first catch of the season and second touchdown of his career, and his last was to receiver David Moore, just signed to the 53-man roster this week and his first touchdown since 2020. He had played for his last four teams without so much as a catch before last week.
The win, combined with the Falcons‘ loss to the Panthers, dramatically increased the Bucs’ chances of making the playoffs for a fourth straight season, and of winning a third straight division title. Tampa Bay is only 7-7, but that’s a game better than the Bucs were a year ago with 45-year-old Tom Brady. The legend threw for 25 touchdowns against nine interceptions in his final NFL season, but Mayfield — playing on a one-year, $4 million contract — is in position to finish with better numbers, with 24 touchdowns against eight interceptions with three games left to play.
Tampa Bay has two other games left, but if the Bucs can simply win at home against the Saints on Dec. 31, they’ll have a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs by the New York Times’ playoff simulator, and that probability only drops to 92 percent if they lose their other games to the Jaguars and Panthers.
This year’s Bucs are largely paying the bill for three years of Brady, with $79 million of cap space devoted to “dead money,” from contracts not related to this season, and another $12 million for players on injured reserve who never took a snap this season. That’s $91 million — about 40 percent of the salary cap — for players not playing this year, and the Bucs are still in first place.
Mayfield’s perfect passer rating came at the perfect time Sunday, and while the Bucs are far from perfect, they’ve certainly overachieved, like Mayfield, to get to where they are. —Greg Auman
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7. How are these Colts winning so many more games than last year’s team?
The Colts’ success is surprising to a lot of people.
With a first-year coach, without Anthony Richardson for most of the year, with Jonathan Taylor in and out of the line up, with right tackle Braden Smith in and out of the lineup, a six-game suspension for one of their best defensive players (defensive tackle Grover Stewart returned Dec. 10) and persistent cornerback issues, Indianapolis controls its destiny in the AFC postseason race with three weeks left in the regular season.
The team currently holds the seventh and final playoff spot in the conference. At 8-6, it’s in a three-way tie atop the AFC South with Jacksonville and Houston.
The way the Colts have won has not been pretty. And their means of doing so has varied from week to week. But the pass rush has been a consistent strength. The Colts are third in the NFL with 46 sacks — four players have at least six (DeForest Buckner, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Samson Ebukam) — and eighth with a 39.6% pressure rate, according to Next Gen Stats.
Indianapolis has won five of its last six games. In those five victories, the team has 25 sacks, which ties a league high since Week 9. The Colts’ ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks has had a direct correlation on their ability to generate turnovers. Indianapolis is tied for second in the NFL with 24 takeaways.
More than anything, the Colts’ shocking success is a testament to Shane Steichen, who should be one of the frontrunners for NFL Coach of the Year. Indianapolis has the eighth-ranked scoring offense (24.6 points per game) despite up-and-down play from Gardner Minshew and Taylor being out seven games and counting.
The Colts lost leading receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and leading rusher Zack Moss in the second quarter of Saturday’s game against the Steelers to a concussion and arm injury, respectively. But they didn’t blink, getting big performances from backup running backs Trey Sermon (88 rushing yards, 5.2 yards per carry) and Tyler Goodson (69 rushing yards, 6.3 yards per carry) and receiver D.J. Montgomery (48 receiving yards, touchdown) to overcome a 13-0 deficit to score 30 unanswered points en route to a victory over a fellow playoff hopeful. That starts with coaching. — Ben Arthur
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Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. This isn’t the same old Giants offensive line — it’s much, much worse
The New Orleans Saints hit pause on the fun and heartwarming Tommy DeVito story on Sunday, sacking him seven times and mocking him with his Italian finger celebration as they basically ended the Giants’ longshot playoff hopes. DeVito had no time or room to operate. He threw for just 177 yards — 70 of which came on the final, meaningless drive of the game.
But don’t blame the hometown hero for this latest Giants mess. This game was a reminder that their offensive issues aren’t any quarterback’s fault.
Their problems start where they have for the last decade — up front with a terrible offensive line. And right now, that line is remarkably a bigger problem than it’s ever been. The Giants have surrendered an astonishing 76 sacks in 14 games this season. That’s already tied for the third-most in NFL history. The only solace for them is that the NFL record — 104 by the 1986 Philadelphia Eagles — is probably out of reach.
Probably.
How has it gotten this bad? It’s true the Giants have been hit by an incredible injury wave up front forcing them to start players like Justin Pugh, who famously joined “straight off the couch” in October and Tyre Phillips, who they had cut at the end of training camp and brought back midseason.
But their problems run deeper than that. Young players like rookie center John Michael Schmitz and right tackle Evan Neal, a 2022 first-round pick, haven’t developed and veterans like Mark Glowinski, now benched one year after signing a three-year, $20 million contract, have regressed.
That probably will cost offensive line coach Bobby Johnson his job after the season, when Daboll is expected to make several changes to his staff. It also has to be the focus of GM Joe Schoen’s offseason plan — especially in free agency, where the Giants could have a significant amount of cap room to spend.
No hole on his roster is bigger than the one up front. The Giants have used three mobile quarterbacks this season and couldn’t protect any of them. Daniel Jones (30 sacks), Tyrod Taylor (10 sacks), and DeVito (35 sacks) all took an unnecessary beating. Even over the last five years, when the Giants’ line was generally regarded as the NFL’s worst, they “only” gave up an average of 45.4 sacks per season and never more than 50.
“It’s not just on the offensive line,” DeVito said on Sunday. “(It’s) kind of a different scenario every time.”
Actually, it is the same scenario playing on an endless loop that’s getting harder and harder to watch. Schoen has to find a way to fix it this offseason before it gets worse — if it’s even possible for their line to regress further. —Vacchiano
9. With each successful start, Jake Browning is solidifying his future
The Bengals backup, thrust into a starting role after Joe Burrow’s season-ending wrist injury, has gone 3-1 in the last four games, completing 73 percent of his passes and throwing seven touchdowns against three interceptions. It’s still a small sample, but his quarterback rating of 107.1 is second-best in the NFL, behind only the 49ers’ Brock Purdy.
Browning is 27, but because he spent four years only on the Vikings and Bengals practice squad before this season, his NFL clock is just starting. That makes him an incredibly inexpensive option at an expensive position — this offseason and next, he’s what the NFL calls an “exclusive-rights free agent,” which means his team can retain him just by offering him a league-minimum, zero-bonus, non-guaranteed contract.
It means whatever NFL team has him can keep him for two more years and less than $2 million, and even then, in spring 2026, they can give him a “first-round tender” — likely about $7 million — to cover them such that if another team wanted to give him an offer sheet, they’d have to give up a first-round pick to get him.
Three years and $9 million is an amazing bargain for a starting quarterback, and because the Bengals have committed $275 million to Burrow to be their starter, it puts Cincinnati in a unique place. Do they recognize that Burrow has missed 16 games in four seasons and keep Browning around as a premier backup? Or do they trade him for a package of draft picks that allow them to address other positions and then sign a top-tier backup quarterback, knowing those only cost $6 million or so?
With so many NFL teams unsure of their quarterback futures, Browning would offer less of a risk than just using a high draft pick on a rookie and seeing how that prospect works out. You can argue eight NFL teams have uncertainty at the position, without a heavy investment in a long-term contract or a high draft pick, and not all of those will be able to draft someone high enough to find an answer there. Free agents like Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew and Ryan Tannehill would be a solution, but will require a much larger financial commitment than Browning.
Cincinnati is 8-6 and would be a wild card right now, thanks to going 3-1 with a backup quarterback. But if there’s a key to staying in contention with a quarterback on a massive contract, it’s in finding ways to fill the rest of your roster cheaply, and trading Browning would give them more draft picks to help do that. Whether it’s staying in Cincinnati or getting a shot at starting with another team, Browning has set himself up for an interesting offseason. —Auman
10. Bears building a strong defense under Eberflus
Chicago just can’t help itself. Defense will always be king in the Windy City. Even when it looks like they’ve drafted a next-generation dual-threat quarterback. Even when the first couple of offseasons under a new general manager focus heavily on putting offensive linemen and weapons around said quarterback. Even when Chicago is trying to make offensive ‘fetch’ happen like North Shore High’s own Gretchen Weiners, it is never going to happen.
The Bears are synonymous with defense.
And there is quite a defense brewing under the direction of head coach Matt Eberflus. Even though the Bears are out of the playoff race and dropped their ninth game of the season in Cleveland, the defense is still showing signs of improvement. Eberflus has always championed takeaways and over the last few weeks, that’s where Chicago has excelled. Against the Browns, they recorded three interceptions, one of which came on a pick six by linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. The Bears defense has 14 takeaways in the last three games. Chicago now ranks second in the league in interceptions with 15, just two behind the 49ers.
The addition of edge rusher Montez Sweat has already paid dividends for the Bears on all levels of the defense. Sweat himself has contributed to what was an anemic pass rush with six sacks as a Bear. That gives him 12.5 on the year — his first season into double digits. Chicago had four total sacks on Browns quarterback Joe Flacco.
If the defense continues to play like this through the end of the season, Eberflus may not only keep his job but be warranted in retaining it — even among Bears fans. —Vitali
11. Is Eagles matchup the Seahawks’ last chance to stay in playoff conversation?
The Seattle Seahawks are running out of lifelines in the team’s chase to make the postseason for a second straight year.
Losers of four straight games for the first time during the Pete Carroll era in Seattle, the 6-7 Seahawks desperately need a win at home in a nationally televised contest Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles to stay in the playoff hunt.
Carroll is hopeful that starting quarterback Geno Smith can return from a groin injury that forced him to miss last week’s loss against San Francisco. Smith was a limited participant in practice this week and is listed a questionable for the game.
While the offense has scuffled, averaging 20 points a game over the four-game losing streak, Carroll’s inability to get his trademark defense to play with any consistency has been at the heart of Seattle’s struggles.
Carroll’s blueprint for winning in Seattle has been an emphasis on a bruising running game and physical defense. However, the Seahawks are No. 28 in the league in rushing, averaging just 92 rushing yards a contest.
And a defense that’s paying three safeties — Quandre Diggs, Julian Love and Jamal Adams — a combined $31.4 million this season is allowing 244 passing yards a contest, No. 26 in the NFL, and has just nine interceptions on the year.
Carroll knows he needs to get back to the basic tenets of his core philosophy to have success during the final four games, or it will be time to Seattle to turn its attention to the 2024 season – which could mean significant changes for the organization.
“We have to fight our way out of this thing,” Carroll said. “We can still get better, and there’s areas that we are working on and parts of our game that we hope we can improve and take better advantage of guys.
“This is still a wide-open opportunity. I don’t know how the other guys are looking at it, but I’m looking at it like it’s playoff time all the way down the stretch here. Every game is going to make a difference, as they always do, but it’s even more amplified now.” —Williams
This story was compiled by:
AFC South reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
NFC South reporter Greg Auman (@gregauman)
AFC East reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFC West reporter Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams)
NFC East reporter Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)
NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV)
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