2023-24 NBA MVP odds: Injured Joel Embiid dropped from oddsboard
The chances of Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid repeating as NBA MVP are all but done as he is scheduled to have surgery on his injured left knee.
Embiid likely won’t meet the league’s new requirement of playing a minimum of 20 minutes in 65 of the 82 regular-season games to be eligible for the major awards.
He is expected to miss substantial time after the surgery to rehab.
The NBA’s leading scorer this season (35.3 points per game) has played in 34 of Philadelphia’s 48 games. He must play in 21 of the 76ers’ 34 remaining games to be eligible for MVP.
As a result, Embiid has been dropped from the odds list for MVP at sportsbooks.
Let’s take a look at the latest MVP odds.
ODDS TO WIN 2023-24 NBA MVP:*
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets: -150 (bet $10 to win $16.67 total)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder: +230 (bet $10 to win $33 total)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Luka Dončić, Mavericks: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Jalen Brunson, Knicks: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Jayson Tatum, Celtics: +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)
Kawhi Leonard, Clippers: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total
* = odds as of 2/4/2024
[Related: Sixers’ Joel Embiid to have knee surgery]
Former NBA player Matt Barnes, appearing on “All Facts No Brakes” with Keyshawn Johnson, said players sitting out because of “load management” was the impetus for the 65-game requirement.
“We had got to a point where guys were just sitting out. And that’s never good,” said Barnes, who won an NBA title in his final season with the Golden State Warriors in 2017. “But then you implement this rule, and now it’s hurting potential awards and careers. … He has a bad knee. Bad knees don’t heal in two or three games off or two or three weeks.
“This rule is tough, to put that 65 cap on it. I feel like the NBA had to do something because I feel like load management got out of hand, and it was hurting the game.”
Denver’s Jokić is the heavy favorite to win his third MVP award (2020-21, 2021-22) as his odds dropped to -150 from +160. He has an NBA-best 15 triple-doubles this season.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s odds moved to +230 after being at +300 last week as he’s scored 31 or more points in nine straight games.
FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre weighed in on the MVP award before the season started (Editor’s Note: Expert’s MVP pick made in July):
Only three players stand out to me early as possibly actionable MVP bets to make for the upcoming season.
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Having advanced to the conference finals in four of the last six years, the Celtics are one of my favorites to win the title, and Tatum is the primary reason. I’m buying the trade of Marcus Smart as a win for the Celtics and Tatum. It will enable the 25-year-old to be the true leader of this team, something Smart has been since entering the league.
Tatum’s points, rebounds and assists have all gone up each year he’s been in the league, and his 30-8-4 were all career highs last year. A first-team All-NBA player each of the last two seasons, I expect him to win the MVP — and an NBA title.
PICK: Jayson Tatum (+800 at time of pick) to win MVP
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
The two-time MVP is coming off an NBA title, Finals MVP, and the unofficial title of best player in the NBA. He’s the favorite for a third MVP, largely on the heels of an insane playoff run where he averaged 30-12-9 over 20 games and also hit a staggering 46% of 3-pointers. So why not bet on him?
You can’t quantify his desire now that he already has a title and his trophy case has everything. Knowing he’s done it all, will we see him pull back in the regular season to save himself for the postseason? We saw that late last season, and it worked. Either way, he’s the best player in the game, so worth a sprinkle.
PICK: Nikola Jokić (+430 at time of pick) to win MVP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
If I’m looking for a super sleeper to win the MVP next year, it has to be SGA. Having just turned 25, he is coming off an excellent season in which he averaged a career-high 31 points and was first-team All-NBA.
Before you scoff, remember the Sacramento Kings improved by 18 wins last year, and the Thunder might be a breakout candidate, as they look to build on the play-in appearance last year while adding Chet Holmgren to the starting lineup.
PICK: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+1700 at time of pick) to win MVP
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