2023-24 NBA MVP race: Joel Embiid passes Nikola Jokic for top spot

National Basketball Association

Updated Jan. 9, 2024 7:33 p.m. ET

The names in the top two spots of FOX Sports’ latest NBA MVP rankings are the same. It’s the order that has changed.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic posted four triple-doubles and did not miss a game while helping the Nuggets to close within one game of the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder. But that was not enough to hold off his closest competitor, Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid, who had a torrid month of December despite missing five games, averaging 40 points, 12 1/2 rebounds and five assists while shooting 60 percent from the field and 42 percent from three-point range. All of that was worth an 8-2 record in the games he played, thanks to a plus-22.8 point differential when he was on the floor.

Granted, the Sixers‘ schedule was considerably softer than the Nuggets and Embiid had the ball in his hands a great deal more than Jokic — 41.6% to 27 percent in usage rate — which is going to produce a gaudier stat line. But Embiid’s defense — a season-best 100 rating — was as stingy as his offense was productive.

There was considerable jockeying lower on the ladder as well. It will be a challenge for anyone to intrude on the two-man race that is currently Embiid and Jokic, but two candidates have already pushed their way past the third member of the race the last few years, the Milwaukee Bucks‘ Giannis Antetokounmpo: the Dallas Mavericks‘ Luka Doncic and the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

By leading the Thunder to an 11-4 December, Gilgeous-Alexander remains at No. 3. His statistics for the month — 32 points, 5 1/2 rebounds, 6 1/2 assists — are not as impressive, but anyone watching Oklahoma City understands he is the engine that has transformed that team from lottery-bound to darkhorse title contention. G-A and the Thunder also faced a tougher slate of opponents than Jokic or Embiid, eight of the 15 being playoff teams at present. The Sixers played five playoff teams and a pair of bottom dwellers, the Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons, twice each. The Nuggets played six current playoff-worthy teams.

Doncic has increased his value — and staying power in the MVP race — by doing less, leapfrogging both Antetokounmpo and the Indiana Pacers‘ Tyrese Haliburton on the ladder. His usage rate is the lowest it has been since his rookie year, but the Mavericks have been a better team for it. Like Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander, incorporating his teammates is part of his value this season. Doncic, a perennial preseason MVP favorite, has never even been a threat to win it this late in the season, thanks to a combination of injury, inefficiency and the Mavs struggling to stay above .500. This year he’s shooting a career high from three-point range (38.3) and nearly a third of his makes are assisted, the highest since his rookie year when he was sharing playmaking duties with Jalen Brunson and JJ Barea. Translation: He’s taking fewer three-pointers off the dribble and being more of a catch-and-shoot, drive-and-kick recipient. Yet his assists have gone up and, per 36 minutes, his turnovers have gone down.

The only other significant changes to the rankings: Orlando’s Paolo Banchero cracking the top 10 for the first time and Anthony Davis continuing his see-saw battle with teammate LeBron James, knocking him off the list after James did the same to him in November.

NBA MVP ladder

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, “Rebound,” on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and “Yao: A Life In Two Worlds.” He also has a daily podcast, “On The Ball with Ric Bucher.” Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.

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