2023 NFL MVP odds: Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa new co-favorite to win award
The NFL MVP oddsboard has undergone a facelift now that Week 1 is in the books.
And names that bettors have on their radars are Miami’sTua Tagovailoa and Buffalo’sJosh Allen — but for different reasons.
In the Dolphins’ gutsy 36-34 win over the Chargers, Tua threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns. His odds to win MVP shortened from +2200 down to +800. Allen, after getting sacked five times in the Bills’ 22-16 loss to the Jets, saw his odds lengthen from +850 to +1100.
Let’s take a closer look.
2023 NFL MVP ODDS*
Tua Tagovailoa: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Patrick Mahomes: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Trevor Lawrence: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Justin Herbert: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Joe Burrow: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Jalen Hurts: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Josh Allen: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Dak Prescott: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Lamar Jackson: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Brock Purdy: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Derek Carr: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
* odds as of 9/13/2023
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Many people speculated that this year’s NFL MVP race would be a battle between AFC quarterback royalty, putting the Bills’ signal-caller up against Patrick Mahomes (+600) or Joe Burrow (+800) for the MVP crown.
However, Tagovailoa’s electric performance in Los Angeles last week propelled his standing on the oddsboard, as he now sits beside Mahomes. Tagovailoa is also the favorite to lead the league in passing. In that market, he opened at +2000 and those odds have now shortened to +500 after his Week 1 outing.
Another player whose MVP odds lengthened after the opening week is Justin Fields. Before the season kicked off, bettors were heavily backing Fields to take the award. In fact, the Chicago Bears QB had more MVP bets than Mahomes, Allen and Herbert combined.
Now, his odds to win the trophy have lengthened from +1500 to +6000.
Here are insights from our FOX Sports NFL AnalystGeoff Schwartz on who to throw money down on for MVP (Editor’s Note: Odds updated, but picks made before Week 1):
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+900)
Burrow has everything you’d want in an MVP favorite.
Not only is he a fantastic quarterback, but he competes with a flare and passion that grabs the eyeballs of MVP voters. We saw this happen in 2021 when Burrow — instead of Dak Prescott — won Comeback Player of the Year.
The Bengals’ QB consistently posts accuracy numbers that are some of the league’s best. And Cincy has improved at the offensive line position and arguably has the best wide receiver room in the NFL. Last year, the Bengals changed their offense to feature plays and schemes that work best for Burrow, so I expect their offense to be slightly better this season.
The Bengals have a chance to be the top seed in the AFC, bolstering the chances for Burrow to win this award.
PICK: Joe Burrow +900 to win NFL MVP (bet $10 to win $100 total)
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Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (+900)
Hurts was the leader for the MVP award last season before injuring his shoulder late. He was outstanding in 2022, throwing for 3,701 yards while rushing for another 760 yards in just 15 starts. Hurts also had 37 total touchdowns and was the focal point of the high-powered Eagles offense.
Philly’s offense returns nearly everyone from its NFC championship roster, including the best offensive line in football. Even though the team has a new offensive coordinator after Shane Steichen’s departure to Indianapolis, I still expect the Eagles offense to keep the train rolling.
Hurts’ ability to create plays and generate MVP-caliber highlights will capture voters’ attention. And the Eagles are on track to return to the Super Bowl this season, which will also help his candidacy.
At 9-1 odds, this bet is definitely worth a sprinkle.
PICK: Jalen Hurts +900 to win NFL MVP (bet $10 to win $100 total)
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