2023 NFL MVP race, odds: 49ers’ Brock Purdy new favorite, Dak Prescott falls

National Football League

Updated Dec. 18, 2023 2:11 p.m. ET

The back-and-forth battle atop the NFL MVP oddsboard continued this weekend, with all three contenders seeing their odds of winning the award change drastically.

Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy‘s odds changed considerably, while another quarterback — Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson — has taken over the second spot.

Once the dust settled Sunday, San Francisco’s Purdy passed Dallas‘ Prescott and now sits as the clear-cut favorite to win the award at -200. Jackson is now No. 2 on the board at +450. Prescott saw his odds change the most, dropping to third at +700.

Prior to Sunday’s 45-29 win over the Arizona Cardinals, Purdy was second at +200. He was at +2900 in early November.

In Sunday’s Week 15 matchup against Arizona, the Niners QB was 16-for-25 passing (64%) for 242 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 135.3 passer rating.

Prescott, on the other hand, struggled in the 31-10 loss at the Buffalo Bills and saw his MVP odds fall to third, moving from +160 to +700.

“Maybe Cowboys fans don’t wanna hear this,” NFL Insider Dave Helman said on Monday’s NFL on FOX Podcast, “I think this puts an end to the MVP candidacy of Dak Prescott.”

Prescott was 21-for-34 passing (61.8%) for 134 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, three sacks and a 57.7 passer rating against Buffalo.

Here are the top candidates for NFL MVP:*

Brock Purdy, 49ers: -200 (bet $10 to win $15 total)

Lamar Jackson, Ravens: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)

Dak Prescott, Cowboys: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)

Josh Allen, Bills: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)

Jalen Hurts, Eagles: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)

* odds as of 12/18/2023

Did Brock Purdy lock up the MVP award after 49ers’ victory over Cardinals?

Regarding Purdy, Helman also noted that there is a difference between the most valuable and the most talented player.

“I think the detractors would probably say, ‘Look, Brock Purdy is not the best quarterback in the NFL. He’s not better than Mahomes, he’s not better than Josh Allen,'” Helman said. “So I don’t think Brock Purdy has to be the best quarterback in the league to be that valuable to his team. … But if he pulls this off, he is a deserving winner.”

FOX Sports NFC West Writer Eric D. Williams said Purdy shouldn’t be penalized for being in the huddle with talented players such as running back Christian McCaffrey, receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle and tackle Trent Williams.

“He continues to perform like an MVP-type quarterback. … The numbers warrant it,” Williams said. “I forget who said it, but they went back in time and talked about Peyton Manning having Edge [Edgerrin James] and [Marvin] Harrison and all the weapons that he had back when he was an MVP.

“Why should we penalize Purdy for going out there and making plays with all the playmakers that are surrounding him? He still has to go out there and make the throws. And he’s doing that on a consistent level.”

The Bills shock Dak’s Cowboys with huge blowout 31-10 win

Purdy can add to his MVP résumé with a strong performance against Jackson and the Ravens on Christmas.

“The whole league’s going to be watching,” Helman said. “If Brock Purdy goes into that game and plays well, this is starting to feel like a legitimate possibility.”

Williams pointed out that many quarterbacks with stronger arms and blazing times in the 40-yard dash ended up being busts in the NFL. Purdy was “Mr. Irrelevant” as the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.

“Give the dude his flowers,” urged Williams. “He’s a good quarterback. He’s a very good quarterback, and it’s not just the receivers that are helping him accumulate those stats. He’s making big-boy throws.”

Jackson, however, is still making his case to win league MVP and can improve his odds with a stellar performance against the 49ers. After the Ravens’ 23-7 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday night, his MVP odds shortened to +450 from +550.

Jackson, the 2019 NFL MVP, was at +900 heading into Week 14.

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