2023 NFL odds: Best Week 13 predictions, including Jets, Titans to cover

National Football League

Published Nov. 28, 2023 11:22 a.m. ET

Week 12 in the NFL was all about favorites covering.

The Cowboys and 49ers both won and covered on Thanksgiving Thursday. Then the Dolphins followed suit in the first ever Black Friday NFL game. The trend of favorites covering then continued into Sunday. The Chiefs, Steelers, Titans, Jaguars, Broncos and Rams all decided to win and cover, too.

But here’s the real question — does this trend continue this week? I’m not counting on it.

To find out what I do predict will happen in Week 13, let’s jump into my early best bets for this week’s slate of games.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

If Mike Vrabel is a home underdog against a backup quarterback, that’s a wager I will always make. Vrabel’s Titans are 12-5 against the spread (ATS) as home underdogs (per FOX Sports Research).

The Colts are coming into town after a home win against the Bucs, where backup quarterback Garnder Minshew completed 24 of 41 passes for 251 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. That performance was above his season averages, and most weeks, he’s followed up a good performance with a poor one. And that’s why he’s a backup. He’s not consistent enough to be the starter.

The Colts’ rushing attack will face a Titans defense that ranks sixth in yards per rush this season. If Jonathan Taylor can’t get going, the Titans defense will do work on Minshew.

No, the Tennessee offense isn’t very good. Therefore, I have to rely on a low-scoring game with Titans quarterback Will Levis making enough plays to help his team cover the game.

I have faith in Vrabel as an underdog.

PICK: Titans (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

Panthers fire Head Coach Frank Reich

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

I know there’s a popular theory that you wager on teams that just lost their head coach, but I think the Panthers are so bad it doesn’t matter.

The Panthers fired Frank Reich on Monday morning and handed the offense back to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. They also fired the quarterback coach and running backs coach. Thomas Brown was given the offense a few weeks back, but his unit performed so poorly that Reich got the play calling back. I’m unsure if it matters who’s calling plays since Bryce Young has no weapons to throw to, and he’s working behind a poor offensive line. The Panthers offense ranks 30th in DVOA and 29th in points per game. A new coach doesn’t fix these issues.

While the Bucs are not good, they are better at every position on the field than the Panthers. They have a league-average defense, which should be perfectly fine to shut down the Panthers offense. The Bucs offense behind Baker Mayfield is in the bottom third of the league, but the Panthers defense ranks 29th in DVOA. The Panthers have only covered a single game this season, and they just flat-out stink.

So, I’m going to continue to fade them.

PICK: Buccaneers (-5) to win by more than 5 points

How impressive is Cowboys three-game win streak?

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

I’m going to hate myself for this, but the Jets are the right side here.

Even though the Falcons are 25th in DVOA, they lead their crummy NFC South division. Atlanta beat the Panthers, the Packers by a point, the Texans by two, Tampa Bay by three and the Saints at home by nine after a late score. The Falcons have lost to the Cardinals, Titans and Commanders. Desmond Ridder is back in at quarterback, and he’s a turnover machine.

I’m going to wager on the fourth-ranked Jets defense to force turnovers to give their offense a short field. The Jets offense can’t throw the ball at all, but their rushing attack is fifth in yards per attempt. The Falcons’ run defense is a middle-of-the-road unit, so I think the Jets can generate some offense in this game.

In the end, I’m just fading Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith as road favorites. Just gross.

PICK: Jets (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.