2023 NFL Power Rankings: Which teams have the best shot at Super Bowl?

National Football League

Updated Jan. 16, 2024 9:45 a.m. ET

The field shrinks. Eight teams remain, and six teams ride off into the offseason sunset to lick their wounds and plot for 2024.

Turns out, it’s easier to rank the league this way!

Last week, I sorted through the 14 playoff teams, and I’m at it again today — with the added caveat that six teams have joined the ranks of the eliminated. This week, we’ll sort through the final four while offering a postmortem for the division-round losers.

Eight teams remain, seven games are left to play. Let’s go.

NFL Power Rankings

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) no change

The only blemish on the Ravens’ otherwise sterling reputation is a 2-5 playoff record in the decade since they won Super Bowl XLVII. Their mark with Lamar Jackson starting is just 1-3. Wins might not be a quarterback stat, but we can assume Jackson will catch some serious heat if his MVP campaign is derailed by the upstart Texans.

2. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) no change

I’m a big fan of the narrative flip heading into the Niners’ postseason debut. Typically, it’s been the Packers playing with high expectations when they face San Francisco in the playoffs, only to have a 13-win season ruined. This time around, Green Bay is the underdog trying to spoil San Francisco’s run. How will this team handle the weight of expectations this time around?

3. Buffalo Bills (12-6) no change

I thought the Bills managed to sleepwalk through a solid portion of their win against Pittsburgh and it still never felt like the outcome was in doubt. Josh Allen gives them a chance to win the whole thing if he continues to play like he did Monday, but Buffalo has to be pretty uneasy about the continued injuries on defense.

Josh Allen, Bills cruise past Mason Rudolph, Steelers

4. Detroit Lions (13-5) +2

Having watched the scene at Ford Field after Sunday’s emotional win, I feel legitimately guilty for picking the Rams to win. I can tell you all about the talent on the Lions’ roster, but honestly, the things that strike me most are the confidence Dan Campbell coaches with and the belief that instills in his team. That can provide a dangerous edge in a stressful playoff setting.

Playoff Rankings: Jared Goff help Lions Rise; Cowboys & Eagles fall

5. Kansas City Chiefs (12-6) +4

On one hand, the Chiefs’ dominant win against Miami was never in doubt. They’re one of the final eight teams playing, and they have the best quarterback in the world. But if we’re going to hold them to the standard they’ve set these last five years, they were still frustrated quite a bit by an injury-depleted Dolphins defense. I still worry about consistency with Kansas City, while still considering them a very legitimate threat.

6. Houston Texans (11-7) +4

There are two young teams still in play with two amazing first-year starters at quarterback. I’m going to give the nod to the Texans over the Packers, mainly because I trust DeMeco Ryans and his young defense more than Green Bay’s — which is wild to type. Having watched C.J. Stroud play that game against the league’s best defense, you can’t rule out Houston pulling off another shocker.

7. Green Bay Packers (10-8) +4

An equally impressive performance, as the youngest roster in football went on the road and demolished a so-called Super Bowl contender. Whatever happens from here, the season is an unmitigated success because Jordan Love looks like a top-10 NFL quarterback. Having said all of that, I don’t completely trust the Packers’ defense to repeat Sunday’s performance when they go up against San Francisco.

Did Jordan Love just change the Packers’ playoff ceiling?

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8) +4

Baker Mayfield plays better with a chip on his shoulder anyway, right? Surely he won’t mind the Buccaneers bringing up the rear. When things are clicking, this is a really fun team. The trick for the Bucs will be repeating Monday’s performance, because there have been far too many weeks when Tampa Bay has come off a big game and struggled to find the end zone.

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9. Los Angeles Rams (10-8) -2

Of the six teams that lost on wildcard weekend, the Rams are the only one that can head into the offseason with their head held high. They weren’t supposed to be here, for starters. And both Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua showed out in front of the entire league. It’s disappointing for the ride to end, but 2023 was a very encouraging season.

10. Miami Dolphins (11-7) -2

The Dolphins have a lot of difficult questions to answer this offseason. They were successful and occasionally spectacular in the regular season, but that doesn’t change the disappointment of letting a strong division lead slip through your fingers, then appearing non-competitive in frigid Kansas City.

Were the Dolphins frauds all along?

11. Cleveland Browns (11-7) -7

We don’t even need to harp on the Browns’ saga at quarterback this season, because that wasn’t the culprit in that blowout loss. I’m still scratching my head at how easy the Texans made it look against a defense that dominated throughout the season. I thought Cleveland’s defense was good enough to drag them on a deep run, and instead, I wound up wondering if they missed the flight to Houston.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-8) +1

I have so much respect for the way they’re always in the conversation, but it’s time for the Steelers to start looking for a way off this mediocrity merry-go-round. Being good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to be seen as a threat is no fun when you’ve won six Super Bowls. With all of that said, they still found a way to keep it close into the fourth quarter, which is more than a lot of wild-card losers can say.

13. Dallas Cowboys (12-6) -8

I’m 100% positive Dallas has a better roster than several teams ranked above them, but why should anyone care about that when said talent consistently fails to perform? There are no excuses left to make for a team that had everything in front of it and no-showed so thoroughly in every facet of Sunday’s loss to Green Bay. The only thing the Cowboys have going for them is getting to watch their division rivals join them in the disappointment.

What went wrong for Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys’ in shocking loss to Packers?

14. Philadelphia Eagles (11-7) no change

I quite simply cannot wait to read the stories that leak out of Philadelphia about how this whole mess transpired. From 10-1 and atop the league to 11-7 and out of the playoffs, it’s hard to remember many collapses more epic than this. Fortunately for the Eagles, the core of a good roster is still in place. The problem is that those guys have been there this whole time, and there were still no answers. What changes are in store? And how surprising will they be?

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15. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) no change

The Seahawks’ decisions this year, from signing Dre’Mont Jones to trading for Leonard Williams, suggest they thought they were a lot closer than they wound up being. Where do they go from here? Re-tool around the same core, or take a bigger swing? Interesting choices lie ahead for a team that isn’t bad, but also doesn’t look close to true contention.

16. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) +2

I’m so impressed by the job Shane Steichen did with this team. To have them one game away from the playoffs, with a roster the average fan would hardly recognize, was truly inspiring stuff. As much as it might sting to miss out on the playoffs, they’ll have Anthony Richardson back for 2024, with a chance to beef up the talent around him.

17. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) +2

As of this writing, we don’t know what’s going to happen with the head-coaching vacancy. The Raiders would have to interview outside candidates before they could officially hire Antonio Pierce, anyway. But seeing the way this group responded to Pierce’s leadership, and the way they finished the season, I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets the gig for the long term.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) -4

I’m well aware of how dinged up Trevor Lawrence was by the end of the season. I sympathize. But it doesn’t change the fact that the Jaguars are the biggest disappointment of 2023. From 8-3 and chasing the No. 1 seed to 9-8 and out of the playoffs is an objective failure, no matter what contributed to the decline. There’s plenty of soul-searching to do in Jacksonville this offseason.

19. New Orleans Saints (9-8) +2

If we’re being honest, it was probably best for the Saints to go out on the high note of humiliating the Falcons in the season finale, rather than forcing fans to watch them in a playoff game. This team was aggressively mediocre, and they’re pretty firmly tied to their quarterback and much of their roster. I have no idea what they do next.

20. Chicago Bears (7-10) -3

After a surging finish to the season, a lot of the Bears’ – and Justin Fields’ – issues popped back up at Lambeau Field. Once he decides what to do about his head coach, GM Ryan Poles has a long offseason to consider his options. Personally, it just feels far too logical to reset the financial clock and draft a new quarterback.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) +3

Joe Burrow was lost for the year in a game that dropped the Bengals to 5-5, all the way back on Nov. 16. Plenty of time to pack it in and start planning postseason vacations. Credit to Cincinnati for rallying to a 4-3 record without him. It might not count for much, but it left an impression.

22. Denver Broncos (8-9) -6

In Year 1 of the Sean Payton Era, we learned that not even he could make the Russell Wilson situation work. In Year 2, the Broncos are going to be paying Wilson a lot of money to (presumably) not play football for them, while still trying to be competitive in their own right. Consider me curious to see how Payton pulls off this juggling act.

23. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) no change

Has any team more drastically changed your opinion from August to January than the Cardinals? Their roster and first-year head coach were largely seen as jokes before the season. Despite that, they were competitive during a 1-8 start, and they went 3-5 once Kyler Murray returned from injury. With two first-round picks in the upcoming draft — one of them fourth overall — Arizona has a legitimate chance to make some noise in 2024.

24. Minnesota Vikings (7-10) +1

Similar to the Bengals, the Vikings deserve a lot of credit for simply keeping it together. Kirk Cousins went down before Halloween, and Minnesota still managed to keep its playoff hopes alive until Week 18. Unlike the Bengals, there’s not as much to build on. Cousins is both injured and headed for free agency, and now we wait to see just how drastically things are going to change in Minneapolis.

25. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) -3

The optimistic outlook is that the Falcons are a quarterback away from being a pretty damn good team. The pessimistic outlook is that we knew this in April, and Atlanta did nothing to fortify the game’s most important position. How will a new coaching staff, armed with the No. 8 overall pick, address it in 2024?

Issue with Saints players going rogue against Falcons?

26. New York Giants (6-11) +1

Brian Daboll remains, but there’s going to be massive turnover below him — most notably, the resignation of defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. I think the Giants found a lot of useful pieces this season, but I’m not going to feel differently about their big-picture prospects until I see the vision at quarterback.

27. New York Jets (7-10) +1

Call it a mulligan. I thought the Jets handled everything that happened after Aaron Rodgers’ injury about as poorly as possible. But the bottom line is that they still only got four snaps out of their QB1. Looks like they’re running it back with everyone, including Rodgers, for 2024. And if you thought the pressure was crazy heading into this season, you haven’t seen anything yet.

The New York Jets have sold their soul to Aaron Rodgers

28. Tennessee Titans (6-11) +2

There’s a surprise coaching change most years, and maybe this season’s is Tennessee. As of right now, nothing has happened regarding Mike Vrabel, but there’s a lot of smoke indicating change could be on the horizon. With Will Levis looking like a legit player at times this year, I think this is a fairly attractive job if it comes open.

29. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) no change

The Chargers have a lot of retooling to do — particularly on defense. But this is also the only job opening that has a bonafide superstar at quarterback, not to mention a top-five draft pick. This is the most appealing job opening in the NFL for 2024.

30. Washington Commanders (4-13) +1

We don’t know yet how good of an owner Josh Harris will be, but it’s got to be exciting for long-suffering fans that Washington is going in a new direction under someone who isn’t Dan Snyder. The Commanders will have a new GM, a new coaching staff and the ability to draft a franchise-changing quarterback. As long as Harris doesn’t mess it up, maybe the future in Washington is finally looking bright.

31. New England Patriots (4-13) -4

Again, as of this writing, there’s no coaching news coming out of Foxborough. But with this much smoke indicating that Bill Belichick is on his way out, it feels inevitable. Try not to let this disastrous final season cloud your judgment of just how special this run really was.

Jay Glazer on Jim Harbaugh’s NFL future, Bill Belichick & Antonio Pierce rumors

32. Carolina Panthers (2-15) no change

Few situations in recent history have felt so bleak. The NFL’s biggest selling point is that every year, all 32 franchises have hope. Where’s the hope here? The Panthers need a new coaching staff, and their owner hasn’t given much cause for optimism that he can pull off a great hire. On top of that, their No. 1 overall pick at quarterback didn’t look like a guy who can elevate a poor roster — and that’s exactly what they’ll have, because their No. 1 overall pick for 2024 belongs to Chicago. The Panthers are bad, and the easy guess is they’ll be bad a while longer.

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.