2023 NFL Power Rankings: Who are the top Super Bowl contenders?

National Football League

Updated Jan. 9, 2024 11:21 a.m. ET

One last time for the 2023 regular season, let’s stack it up.

We’ll split this week’s power rankings into two categories now that we know the league’s haves and have-nots. Surprise: the 14 playoff teams will occupy the top 14 spots. Behind them, we’ll also provide a post-mortem assessment of teams 15-32 as they move into the long offseason.

Let’s get into it.

NFL Power Rankings

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) no change

Baltimore ended the season getting swept by Pittsburgh, but that loss came because they were good enough to sit their starters in Week 18. Even with the throwaway loss, they have the best record and best resume in the league heading into the playoffs.

2. San Francisco 49ers (12-5) no change

It’s surprising to look up and realize the Niners finished with “only” 12 wins, but that’s the benefit of locking up the No. 1 seed a week early. As entertaining as the NFC playoff field looks right now, it’s easy to pick San Francisco as the team to beat, with home-field advantage secured.

3. Buffalo Bills (11-6) +1

After some serious adversity, the Bills end the season atop the division and riding a five-game win streak. Their only loss after Thanksgiving came on the road in Philadelphia, in overtime. I can’t say enough about the way this defense has rallied, and if Josh Allen can limit the turnovers, these guys can beat anyone.

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4. Cleveland Browns (11-6) -1

I didn’t drop the Browns because of their nothingburger loss to Cincinnati. That was irrelevant. It’s merely an acknowledgment of Buffalo’s accomplishment to come from behind and steal the division. Traveling to Houston will be tough, but Cleveland’s combination of dominant defense and explosive passing makes them a scary wild-card team.

5. Dallas Cowboys (12-5) +1

Left for dead a few weeks ago, the Cowboys are now primed to enjoy their best playoff seeding since Dak Prescott’s rookie year. If this team can’t break the 28-year NFC Championship Game draught, with the prospect of playing at least two home games in the playoffs, I’m just not sure when it’ll happen.

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6. Detroit Lions (12-5) +1

You’re not going to hear a word of criticism from me about Dan Campbell playing his starters in Week 18. That’s the culture he built in Detroit, and the Lions still had achievable goals. Hopefully, Sam LaPorta’s injury won’t end his season, but I’m going to guess it’ll be tough to play this weekend. And the Rams, led by former Lion Matthew Stafford, present a heck of a challenge.

7. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) +1

I know all the stars were sitting, but it’s still remarkable that the Rams’ backups went on the road and achieved a 10-win season for a team that was an afterthought in September. The Goff/Stafford Revenge Bowl is going to be the most hyped storyline of wildcard weekend, but let’s make sure we celebrate what an impressive season this was for L.A., regardless of the result.

8. Miami Dolphins (11-6) -3

If I’m searching for a positive, it’s that the Dolphins will be a much tougher out if Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are available this weekend. But it doesn’t change the disappointment of letting a strong division lead slip through your fingers, nor does it change the fact that Miami now must beat the defending champs on the road in Arctic temperatures.

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9. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) no change

Week 18 didn’t count, because the Chiefs played the backups, but it’s still been about a month since Kansas City looked like a contender. Can they turn it on? Fortunately for them, the playoffs lend themselves to grimy, defensive football — a style this team is well-equipped to play.

10. Houston Texans (10-7) no change

Ever since Saturday night, I’ve been thinking about where I’d rank C.J. Stroud on a list of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. I don’t have an answer yet, but the fact that it’s even a conversation is pretty incredible. Stroud should give the Texans a chance against any team they play in the postseason. But even if the ride is a short one, the future in Houston looks very bright, thanks to arguably the NFL’s brightest young star.

11. Green Bay Packers (9-8) no change

It wasn’t always pretty, but it’s so damn fun how this young team came together and developed into a formidable playoff opponent. Much like Houston with Stroud, the Packers’ actual playoff results take a back seat to the excitement of finding an answer at quarterback. Considering this is his first season as a starter, Jordan Love certainly looks like a QB you can build a contender around.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) +1

No need to relive that awful game in Charlotte, but it achieved the desired result. In a year when many assumed the Bucs would fight for the No. 1 overall pick, they’ll host a playoff game – and they’ve got a good shot to win it. Now, the big question is whether they’ll re-sign Baker Mayfield, and at what price?

13. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) +7

It’s one thing to avoid a losing season, but in 2023, Mike Tomlin posted double-digit wins. And that came despite an offense that was so bad it necessitated firing the offensive coordinator mid-season, not to mention uncertainty at quarterback. I doubt the Steelers have a deep playoff run in their bag, but then again, I’d never have believed they’d make it this far in the first place.

14. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) -2

It speaks to the Eagles’ early success that they sit comfortably as the NFC’s No. 5 seed despite finishing the season an eye-popping 1-5. But that’s irrelevant now. Have you seen anything from Philly that gives you hope they can pull out of this nosedive? Especially if Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are dinged up? According to Las Vegas, they’re road favorites in Tampa on Monday night, but I don’t know if I feel that way.

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15. Seattle Seahawks (9-8) no change

The Seahawks’ decisions this year, from signing Dre’Mont Jones to trading for Leonard Williams, suggest they thought they were a lot closer than they wound up being. Where do they go from here? Re-tool around the same core, or take a bigger swing? Interesting choices lie ahead for a team that isn’t bad, but also doesn’t look close to true contention.

16. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) +2

I’m so impressed by the job Shane Steichen did with this team. To have them one game away from the playoffs, with a roster the average fan would hardly recognize, was truly inspiring stuff. As much as it might sting to miss out on the playoffs, they’ll have Anthony Richardson back for 2024, with a chance to beef up the talent around him.

17. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) +2

As of this writing, we don’t know what’s going to happen with the head-coaching vacancy. The Raiders would have to interview outside candidates before they could officially hire Antonio Pierce, anyway. But seeing the way this group responded to Pierce’s leadership, and the way they finished the season, I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets the gig for the long term.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) -4

I’m well aware of how dinged up Trevor Lawrence was by the end of the season. I sympathize. But it doesn’t change the fact that the Jaguars are the biggest disappointment of 2023. From 8-3 and chasing the No. 1 seed to 9-8 and out of the playoffs is an objective failure, no matter what contributed to the decline. There’s plenty of soul-searching to do in Jacksonville this offseason.

19. New Orleans Saints (9-8) +2

If we’re being honest, it was probably best for the Saints to go out on the high note of humiliating the Falcons in the season finale, rather than forcing fans to watch them in a playoff game. This team was aggressively mediocre, and they’re pretty firmly tied to their quarterback and much of their roster. I have no idea what they do next.

20. Chicago Bears (7-10) -3

After a surging finish to the season, a lot of the Bears’ – and Justin Fields’ – issues popped back up at Lambeau Field. Once he decides what to do about his head coach, GM Ryan Poles has a long offseason to consider his options. Personally, it just feels far too logical to reset the financial clock and draft a new quarterback.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) +3

Joe Burrow was lost for the year in a game that dropped the Bengals to 5-5, all the way back on Nov. 16. Plenty of time to pack it in and start planning postseason vacations. Credit to Cincinnati for rallying to a 4-3 record without him. It might not count for much, but it left an impression.

22. Denver Broncos (8-9) -6

In Year 1 of the Sean Payton Era, we learned that not even he could make the Russell Wilson situation work. In Year 2, the Broncos are going to be paying Wilson a lot of money to (presumably) not play football for them, while still trying to be competitive in their own right. Consider me curious to see how Payton pulls off this juggling act.

23. Arizona Cardinals (4-13) no change

Has any team more drastically changed your opinion from August to January than the Cardinals? Their roster and first-year head coach were largely seen as jokes before the season. Despite that, they were competitive during a 1-8 start, and they went 3-5 once Kyler Murray returned from injury. With two first-round picks in the upcoming draft — one of them fourth overall — Arizona has a legitimate chance to make some noise in 2024.

24. Minnesota Vikings (7-10) +1

Similar to the Bengals, the Vikings deserve a lot of credit for simply keeping it together. Kirk Cousins went down before Halloween, and Minnesota still managed to keep its playoff hopes alive until Week 18. Unlike the Bengals, there’s not as much to build on. Cousins is both injured and headed for free agency, and now we wait to see just how drastically things are going to change in Minneapolis.

25. Atlanta Falcons (7-10) -3

The optimistic outlook is that the Falcons are a quarterback away from being a pretty damn good team. The pessimistic outlook is that we knew this in April, and Atlanta did nothing to fortify the game’s most important position. How will a new coaching staff, armed with the No. 8 overall pick, address it in 2024?

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26. New York Giants (6-11) +1

Brian Daboll remains, but there’s going to be massive turnover below him — most notably, the resignation of defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. I think the Giants found a lot of useful pieces this season, but I’m not going to feel differently about their big-picture prospects until I see the vision at quarterback.

27. New York Jets (7-10) +1

Call it a mulligan. I thought the Jets handled everything that happened after Aaron Rodgers’ injury about as poorly as possible. But the bottom line is that they still only got four snaps out of their QB1. Looks like they’re running it back with everyone, including Rodgers, for 2024. And if you thought the pressure was crazy heading into this season, you haven’t seen anything yet.

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28. Tennessee Titans (6-11) +2

There’s a surprise coaching change most years, and maybe this season’s is Tennessee. As of right now, nothing has happened regarding Mike Vrabel, but there’s a lot of smoke indicating change could be on the horizon. With Will Levis looking like a legit player at times this year, I think this is a fairly attractive job if it comes open.

29. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12) no change

The Chargers have a lot of retooling to do — particularly on defense. But this is also the only job opening that has a bonafide superstar at quarterback, not to mention a top-five draft pick. This is the most appealing job opening in the NFL for 2024.

30. Washington Commanders (4-13) +1

We don’t know yet how good of an owner Josh Harris will be, but it’s got to be exciting for long-suffering fans that Washington is going in a new direction under someone who isn’t Dan Snyder. The Commanders will have a new GM, a new coaching staff and the ability to draft a franchise-changing quarterback. As long as Harris doesn’t mess it up, maybe the future in Washington is finally looking bright.

31. New England Patriots (4-13) -4

Again, as of this writing, there’s no coaching news coming out of Foxborough. But with this much smoke indicating that Bill Belichick is on his way out, it feels inevitable. Try not to let this disastrous final season cloud your judgment of just how special this run really was.

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32. Carolina Panthers (2-15) no change

Few situations in recent history have felt so bleak. The NFL’s biggest selling point is that every year, all 32 franchises have hope. Where’s the hope here? The Panthers need a new coaching staff, and their owner hasn’t given much cause for optimism that he can pull off a great hire. On top of that, their No. 1 overall pick at quarterback didn’t look like a guy who can elevate a poor roster — and that’s exactly what they’ll have, because their No. 1 overall pick for 2024 belongs to Chicago. The Panthers are bad, and the easy guess is they’ll be bad a while longer.

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.