2023 NFL wild-card odds, predictions, best bets by Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica
“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
For those new to this space, if you are looking for some wagers to get in on the NFL action, I have you covered. Nothing makes football better than having a few bucks on the games weekly.
Last week, we finished 1-2, but we’re still up on the season. Let’s get a hot streak going in the playoffs.
Here are my best bets for this week’s card.
(All times ET)
Last Week: 1-2 (Season: 34-28-3)
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (4:30 p.m. Jan. 14, FOX and FOX Sports app)
I was a little surprised that this number dropped from 7.5 to 7. I thought that Dallas would get more support here and expected this number to move to 8 — if it moved at all.
At 7, I still do like Dallas. At the end of the regular season, it wasn’t like the Packers were facing these great offenses. But this weekend in Dallas, Green Bay will be facing Dak Prescott,CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard in an offense that has been nearly unstoppable at home this year.
I do agree that there is a lot of pressure on coach Mike McCarthy to beat his former team. If Dallas were to lose this game, that would surprise me. That said, I do think the Cowboys keep up their winning and scoring ways at home.
If you like the Dallas team total Over instead of laying the 7, I can accept that, too.
PICK: Cowboys (-7) to win by more than 7 points
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:15 p.m. Jan. 15, ESPN)
Are we at the point where we get to say that the Eagles might not be very good? This is a tired, old team with a bunch of injuries.
We’re seeing what we’ve seen in the past with teams that go to the Super Bowl. The next year, they have a long, grueling season, and it ultimately catches up with them.
I don’t think Tampa is great by any means. But the Bucs are at home, and they’re getting a field goal. I do think if Baker Mayfield is somewhat capable of throwing the football and isn’t completely injured, the Tampa offense could put up a bunch of points in this game. I’m willing to take my chances that the Eagles are not the team that we thought they were. Early in the year, they were winning a bunch of close games, but this is a team that could have been 5-5 after 10 games. And they might not have been as good as their record indicated.
PICK: Bucs (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
Best Prop Bets
San Francisco to win the NFC: -125
Brock Purdy to have the most passing yards in the playoffs: +550
Playing the 49ers to win the NFC is a really smart bet. In essence, all you’re really saying is that you think they’re going to win the divisional round game at home, and then the Niners are probably going to be around a touchdown favorite in the NFC Championship game at home.
So you can easily buy back on the underdog on the moneyline and lock yourself in a profit because the underdog will certainly be a lot bigger than the +125 that you’re laying right here on the Niners to win the NFC.
Brock Purdy to be the leading passer in terms of yardage in the playoffs is a good bet as well. I expect the Niners to get to the Super Bowl, so that means three games. I think there’s a chance they end up playing an Eagles defense — which is just terrible right now — and I think Purdy can light them up. Purdy has already had a big game against the Cowboys this year.
If you look at some of these bad weather games in Super Wild Card weekend, some of these quarterbacks aren’t going to be able to throw for a ton of yards.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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