2024-25 College Football Playoff: Joel Klatt’s takeaways from first rankings

College Football

Published Nov. 7, 2024 12:01 p.m. ET

Finally, the first College Football Playoff ranking of the 12-team era is here.

The first rankings were released on Tuesday night. To no surprise, Oregon came in at No. 1. Here’s a full look at the rankings and the bracket.

One thing I want to hit on before my main takeaways: Is Ohio State better off with the No. 5 seed than Oregon getting the No. 1 seed or Miami (Fla.) getting the No. 3 seed? Ohio State would get to play a home game against Boise State before taking on BYU in a neutral-site game. Meanwhile, Oregon would have to play Tennessee or Indiana in a neutral-site game, while Miami would face Texas or Alabama in a neutral-site game. That’s a terrible spot to be in if you’re the Hurricanes. If you’re Ohio State, you’d have to think that’s an easier path.

As for the rankings itself, I’m not as bent out of shape over the top 25 as I have been in recent years. That’s mostly because it’s a 12-team field, and maybe you felt the same way as the reveal went along on Tuesday. It’s setting the table for what we’re about to see for the next month and paving the path for each contender.

Still, I have some quibbles over the rankings. So, let’s go through my top takeaways.

No. 8 Indiana, No. 9 BYU ranked too low

There’s only one conclusion I have when I see where Indiana and BYU are ranked: brand bias. There’s no other conclusion.

I’m a big believer in the eye test. I’ve called games for both teams and watched all their tape. Indiana is far better than what the committee ranked it. To be fair, I ranked BYU lower than the committee did in my most recent top 10, placing the Cougars at No. 10. But I’m unapologetic about the eye test and the film.

The inconsistency, though, is that Indiana would be far higher than what it was ranked on Tuesday. You’re telling us the eye test matters based on where Texas, Penn State and Tennessee were ranked. Indiana passes the eye test more than some of those teams.

What other team has the type of performance résumé that Indiana has? The Hoosiers have beaten every team they have played by at least 14 points. Their average margin of victory is 32.9 points. They have the No. 2 scoring offense in the country and the No. 7 scoring defense in the country. This is an excellent team, and if they had another logo on the side of their helmet, they would be ranked higher.

Now, I get the strength of schedule argument with Indiana. The Hoosiers rank 103rd in that metric with their best wins being over Nebraska and Washington. But if we’re just going with the résumé test, then BYU would be ranked higher than ninth. BYU has two top-20 wins, beating SMU and Kansas State. Its strength of record is fourth in the nation and its strength of schedule is 61st.

Indiana and BYU are getting screwed based on brand bias because at least one of them should be ranked higher if you’re going by either eye test or pure résumé. Let’s do a quick thought exercise from last year to reinforce this. We had two teams that were major brands who we thought highly of from the beginning of the year, something that Indiana and BYU didn’t have. Those two major brands had a similar résumé to Indiana, but were ranked in the top three of the first CFP poll.

I’m talking about Michigan and Georgia. At this point last year, Michigan was 8-0 with the 111th strength of schedule and a 34.8 average point differential. Yet, the Wolverines were ranked third in the first CFP poll. Georgia was 8-0 with a strength of schedule that ranked 100th and an average margin of victory of 25.8 points. That’s roughly a touchdown less than Indiana’s average margin of victory.

So, the committee has shown that if you have the right logo, you won’t be penalized as long as you’re taking care of business. But that privilege isn’t extended to Indiana.

Wide receivers Darius Lassiter (No. 5) along with Chase Roberts (No. 2) and Jojo Phillips (No. 13) have helped BYU get off to a 9-0 start. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)

Miami (Fla.) ranked too high at No. 4

If Indiana and BYU were ranked too low, then I think Miami was placed too high. The Hurricanes’ best wins are over Louisville and Duke, while their strength of schedule ranks 46th, which is higher than Indiana and BYU’s. But Miami isn’t controlling games like those other two teams. It has given up at least 31 points in at least four of its past five games.

In fact, we’ve seen Miami play some really close games against teams that it should have beaten by much more. You could argue that the difference between Miami winning and losing its games against Virginia Tech and Cal was due to officiating errors.

I love Cam Ward, but that isn’t enough to make up for Miami’s lack of control over some of the games it’s played recently. Miami’s also likely going to win the ACC, so it’ll likely end up with a top-four seed regardless.

But by the eye test, Miami doesn’t look like Indiana and BYU. If the committee was going to overlook Michigan and Georgia’s résumés last year, then we know what’s going on with Miami. It’s a brand school.

Miami (Fla.) QB Cam Ward is second in the nation in passing yards (3,146) and leads the nation in passing touchdowns (29). (Photo by Leonardo Fernandez/Getty Images)

The first rankings still matter

When I’ve reacted to the first release of the CFP poll in other seasons, I’ll get comments from people saying, “Well, it really doesn’t matter. It’ll all play itself out.”

The rankings still matter, especially this year. The rankings set the groundwork for what will happen in the next month. I can see the top five, six or even seven teams in the first top 25 get the benefit of the doubt, even if they lose a game, because they are already getting the benefit of the doubt. That’s why it was important for teams like Indiana or BYU to have a higher ranking than where each came in, because neither really has any margin for error.

Miami, meanwhile, is probably fine now because it’s at No. 4. The Hurricanes might not have to even win the ACC Championship Game in order to make the CFP. If SMU upsets Miami in the ACC title game or Colorado wins the Big 12 Championship Game over BYU, that’s one fewer at-large spot than previously accounted for a team like Indiana to get.

Indiana might have to win that Ohio State game later in November in order to make the CFP, even if it goes 11-1. If Indiana wins that game, it’s sitting in the driver’s seat. If it doesn’t, it might leave itself open to a lot of questions from the committee, which I don’t like for Indiana.

Indiana and BYU are ranked too low in first CFP rankings

Does Notre Dame control its own destiny?

Notre Dame was ranked 10th in the first CFP poll, putting it in the 12-team field as the second-lowest ranked at-large team. But it might not control its own destiny. At 7-1, ND’s best wins are over Louisville, Navy and Texas A&M, with the last helping the Fighting Irish a lot. But its strength of schedule is 75th, and its loss to Northern Illinois was terrible.

Notre Dame also has very little left on its schedule, at least from a résumé standpoint. It has games against an Army team that’s barely in the top 25, along with games against USC and Florida State teams that have completely fallen off the map. It also plays Virginia.

So, Notre Dame should win all four of those games, putting it at 11-1. But what happens if Alabama beats LSU? The Crimson Tide would almost certainly pass the Fighting Irish. If LSU beats Alabama, I think the Tigers would pass Notre Dame, too. If Texas A&M beats Texas later in the year, I think the Aggies would pass Notre Dame. If Miami or BYU goes 12-0 but loses the conference championship game, both those teams would have an argument for an at-large spot over ND.

Notre Dame’s best path is if it can be compared directly to Texas A&M. Even then, I still don’t think Notre Dame controls its own destiny despite currently holding a spot in the bracket. I just don’t trust the spot where Notre Dame’s at based on the remaining games that others around it still have to play.

Safety Xavier Watts has helped power Notre Dame’s defense with three interceptions this season. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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