2024 College football odds: Big Ten projected win totals, best bets
With the new conference realignments set to begin in the 2024-25 college football season, the Big Ten will have a completely different look to it.
The Big Ten Conference will add four teams for the upcoming season: UCLA, Oregon, USC and Washington. This will be the first season with 18 teams in the conference and no divisional format.
The two teams that will meet in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship will be decided by conference winning percentage and tiebreakers, with all 18 teams competing for the two spots.
One Big Ten newcomer, Oregon, is tied for the highest projected win total at 10.5 with Ohio State and Penn State.
With Bo Nix headed to the NFL, the Ducks brought in transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel from Oklahoma.
Gabriel led the Sooners to a 10-2 record, as he threw for 3,660 yards and 30 touchdowns. Gabriel and standout wide receiver Tez Johnson, who returns for the Ducks, will look to make some major noise in Oregon’s first season in the Big Ten.
Will that be enough to beat the Buckeyes, who return 16 starters, nine of whom return on the defensive side of the ball? The Buckeyes also acquired quarterback Will Howard from Kansas State and star running back Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss via the transfer portal.
Let’s check out the latest projected win total odds via DraftKings Sportsbook for each team in the Big 10.
Ohio State
Over 10.5: -150 (bet $10 to win $16.67 total)
Under 10.5: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Oregon
Over 10.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Under 10.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Penn State
Over 10.5: +140 (bet $10 to win $24 total)
Under 10.5: -165 (bet $10 to win $16.06 total)
Michigan
Over 9: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
Under 9: -135 (bet $10 to win $17.41 total)
Iowa
Over 8: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Under 8: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Nebraska
Over 7.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Under 7.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
USC
Over 7: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
Under 7: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Wisconsin
Over 7: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Under 7: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Washington
Over 6.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Under 6.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Maryland
Over 6.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Under 6.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
Illinois
Over 5.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Under 5.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Indiana
Over 5.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Under 5.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
UCLA
Over 5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
Under 5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Minnesota
Over 5: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
Under 5: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Michigan State
Over 5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Under 5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Purdue
Over 4.5: +130 (bet $10 to win $23 total)
Under 4.5: -150 (bet $10 to win $16.67 total)
Northwestern
Over 4.5: -135 (bet $10 to win $17.41 total)
Under 4.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
FOX Sports gambling analyst Geoff Schwartz gives his predictions and best bets for the Big Ten.
UCLA Over/Under 5.5 wins
UCLA’s future is brighter now than it was at this point last season, with Deshaun Foster taking over for Chip Kelly. Foster is a UCLA alum who understands the difficulties of winning in Westwood. He’s already injected energy and passion into the program that will help recruit better players to the program.
However, that’s not going to help them win six games in 2024.
Foster took over the program after Kelly took the Ohio State’s offensive coordinator job in early February. Kelly departed UCLA after securing a 2024 recruiting class and after the portal window closed. So Foster is mostly stuck with players he did not recruit himself or add to the roster in the preferred winter portal window.
The UCLA roster was gutted by the draft and the portal. UCLA’s defense was fantastic in 2023, but it lost its defensive coordinator before Kelly departed. UCLA’s top pass rushers went to the NFL, and while it did retain Jay Toia, there’s not much experience or talent upfront. UCLA lost its inside linebacker and four of its top five secondary players from last season.
And unfortunately for Foster, UCLA just hasn’t added that talent back quite yet.
On offense, UCLA does return Ethan Garbers at quarterback and T.J. Harden at running back. Those are two reliable players who new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy can work with. UCLA is a tad shallow for receiving options, and it does return three of five offensive linemen. Its offense projects to be average if not slightly above. But with the Bruins defense having to be completely repaired, I believe the offense will struggle to score the points needed to keep up.
UCLA’s schedule is tough in 2024. An opening weekend trip to Hawaii, and two games later, the Bruins are at LSU. They have Oregon, Penn State and Iowa as conference opponents, and outside of hosting Indiana in Week 2, the Bruins will not be a favorite in any other game.
PICK: UCLA under 5.5 wins
Rutgers Over/Under 6 wins
Rutgers went 6-6 last season, adding a seventh win in its bowl game against Miami, and I’m wagering on Rutgers having a better season in 2024 for two reasons.
The first is its roster. Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano was able to retain the core of his roster to return for their final seasons of college football. Rutgers running back Kyle Monangai led the league in rushing, and he will return for one final year. Rutgers will see four offensive lineman start again this season, plus its leading receiver. It’s fair to question the passing attack, as it finished 12th out of 14 Big Ten teams. However, Rutgers added Athan Kaliakmanis from Minnesota, who started 12 games for the Gophers last season.
The Scarlet Knights defense finished 2023 ranked 19th in overall defensive SP+. It was fantastic at limiting explosive plays, and it was first in tackle success rate. Rutgers returns eight of its 11 starters from last season, including its leading pass rusher and interception leader.
The defense will be just as good this season.
The second reason Rutgers will win over six games is their schedule. It has no Ohio State or Oregon, the two best teams in the Big Ten. Rutgers also misses Michigan and Penn State, it will not play the four best teams in the conference and three of those four teams accounted for half of its six losses last season.
PICK: Rutgers over 6 wins
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