2024 College Football odds: Fade Colorado in Week 2; Michigan to cover

College Football

Published Sep. 4, 2024 3:41 p.m. ET

Week 2 of the college football season is here.

Last week was all about seeing which teams needed to shake off the rust. This week will be about watching teams show a little bit more of their true identities.

Can Colorado get a win at Nebraska, or will the Cornhuskers handle business at home?

Will the Wolverines manage to cover the spread against a solid Texas squad?

Let’s dive into my best bets for Week 2.

(All times ET)

Saturday, Sept. 7

Texas -7.5 @ Michigan (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)

This number is a massive overreaction to Week 1, and I’m going to fade the public with Michigan plus the good number.

This number opened around Texas -3.5 and was immediately steamed to 6 and 6.5 and now to 7.5. Michigan beat Fresno State 30-10 on Saturday night. The Wolverines defense was predictably outstanding, and their offense looked like a squad replacing 4,200 offensive line snaps, a quarterback drafted in the first round and other highly drafted skill players. However, Michigan’s offense didn’t stink as badly as people seem to believe, and we know the biggest improvement in college football comes between Weeks 1 and 2.

UM’s offense should be better this weekend.

Texas looked like a juggernaut in its 52-0 win against Colorado State. The Longhorns appeared to have no drop off from last season, despite high-profile roster losses at receiver and on defense. They were successful on offense, grinding out yards and producing six explosive plays in the game.

The Texas defense didn’t allow any points, but it also did not sack the quarterback. Also, the Horns didn’t have the best run stuff rate, which was expected after losing two excellent interior defensive tackles.

I believe this helps Michigan stay in the game. The Wolverines should be able to play ball control on the Texas defense to grind out yards of their own, while the Michigan defense keeps the Longhorns offense in front of them.

I see this being a lower scoring game, which favors Michigan to cover the spread.

PICK: Michigan (+7.5) to lose by 7 points or fewer, or win outright

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Akron @ Rutgers -23 (noon, Big Ten Network)

This line is way too light, and I’m on Rutgers here.

The Scarlet Knights started slowly but dominated Howard 44-7 in their first contest. They were able to clear nearly seven yards a play and their best offensive player — running back Kyle Monangai — had 125 yards and four explosive runs. The Rutgers defense played well, forced turnovers and improved throughout the game.

Akron went to Ohio State, and while the Zips battled to keep it close early on, it ended up being a big win for the Buckeyes. Now Akron goes back on the road to face a physical program in Rutgers.

Just a tough spot for Akron.

I could see this score being 38-0 for Rutgers. I will take the Scarlet Knights to cover.

PICK: Rutgers (-23) to win by more than 23 points

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San Jose State @ Air Force -6.5 (7 p.m., CBSSN)

Air Force returns just 28% of its production from 2023. It ranks as the fifth-worst returning production percentage in the last 10 years. All the teams with about equal returning production in the previous 10 seasons saw massive regression in play on the field, and we already saw that with Air Force in Week 1.

The Falcons played Merrimack last weekend and scored only 21 points, while generating just two explosive plays. We’re talking 231 yards to Merrimack’s 210.

Not great.

San Jose State started slow against Sac State last weekend but eventually out distanced the Hornets to win 42-24.

SJSU has the benefit of its head coach knowing the Air Force offense because he ran the same offense at Navy. Ken Niumatalolo is Navy’s all-time winningest coach, and he can best prepare his squad to face the Air Force option attack.

I like San Jose State to win and cover this game.

PICK: San Jose State (+6.5) to lose by 6 points or fewer, or win outright

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Colorado @ Nebraska -7.5 (7:30 p.m., NBC)

I’ve been looking at this game since the schedules for both teams were announced in the spring.

This is a tough matchup for the Buffaloes, and nothing I saw from them in Week 1 has changed my mind.

Colorado is a top-heavy squad with elite talent at quarterback, wide receiver and the best all-around talent in the sport in Travis Hunter. The rest of the team is just dudes, and this specific matchup does not bode well for the Buffaloes. I saw nothing in Week 1 during their game against North Dakota State that makes me believe they’ve improved much since 2023.

The defense allowed 450 yards and NDSU’s offense averaged 6.5 yards per play. Colorado had no desire to run the ball, and while its pressure rate improved from last season, and it appears freshman left tackle Jordan Seaton is a legit talent, there was too much leakage in pass protection and not enough push in the run game.

As I wrote last weekend, when I gave out Nebraska to cover against UTEP, this Cornhuskers team is loaded with returning talent in important positions — like on the offensive and defensive lines. Head coach Matt Rhule has seen massive improvement in his teams from Year 1 to 2. And my hunch about true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola upgrading the offense instantly was proven correct.

Nebraska had a 43% success rate on offense, which might seem low, but actually puts the Cornhuskers at average for an opening week. That is with a quarterback making his first college start. The offense will improve in the second week. The defense, as expected, was outstanding. UTEP had negative efficiency on offense and only gained 25% of total yards available.

Colorado is coming to Lincoln with five new offensive linemen, including a true freshman left tackle. All are playing their first road game together in a hostile atmosphere. This will be a difficult task for these five to communicate and execute together in this environment for the first time against the disruptive Nebraska defensive line. Without the ability to run the ball consistently, the Nebraska defense will be able to sit back in coverage and disrupt the Buffs passing game.

NDSU was able to move the ball when it needed against Colorado, and Nebraska’s offense should be able to do the same. Just a bad matchup for a good Nebraska offense.

Give me the Cornhuskers to cover.

PICK: Nebraska (-7.5) to win by 8 points or more

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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