2024 College football Week 1 predictions, best bets by Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica

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College Football

Published Aug. 29, 2024 10:28 a.m. ET

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Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

College football Week 1 is finally here, and you know I’ve been counting down the days.

Just like last year, we are going to do weekly picks posts and have a gambling show. Hope you’re as excited about this season as we are.

As always, I look forward to sharing my best football bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you all throughout the season.

So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games, I’ve got you covered.

Let’s have some fun and, hopefully, make some money.

Here are my favorite wagers for Week 1.

(All times ET)

Friday, Aug. 30

Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State (7 p.m., Big Ten Network)

Jonathan Smith has a rebuild in store at Michigan State and I can’t see the Spartans putting up a big number here, even with his former Oregon State quarterback Aidan Chiles joining him in East Lansing.

Tom Herman’s Owls struggled last year, but they do have some new offensive talent to work with this year and that, along with the role of a two-TD underdog, makes FAU an attractive ‘dog.

PICK: Florida Atlantic (+14) to lose by fewer than 14 points or win outright

Saturday, Aug. 31

Penn State @ West Virginia (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)

There’s been one-way action on the ‘dog here, and that’s the type of game I love to hop in on the other side.

The Nittany Lions will still have one of the best defenses in the country. While I’m not convinced Drew Allar will be the QB some thought he could be, the RB duo of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton — along with that defense — should be enough to get out of Morgantown with a double-digit win against a team that went 0-3 against teams that finished last year ranked.

PICK: Penn State (-8) to win by more than 8 points

Miami (Ohio) @ Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BIG10)

This is a tough opener for Northwestern at its converted practice facility, which is now its temporary home stadium. The Wildcats overachieved mightily last year, as they were underdogs 10 times and won a remarkable five of them outright. That likely means the talent level isn’t that much better than Miami Ohio (if at all), which won the MAC last year and brought oft-injured quarterback Brett Gabbert back.

There will likely not be a ton of possessions here and points will be at a premium. I’ll grab the three.

PICK: Miami (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright

CFB Preview: Heisman Trophy odds and best bets

Sam Houston @ Rice (7 p.m., ESPN+)

Rice is a team I played to go over its season win total and to win the AAC. Mike Bloomgren has been given time to build this team and program and this is the year we could see the Owls take another step forward. Quarterback E.J. Warner is in from Temple and his presence — along with the returning players on offense — could make the Owls a very dangerous offense in the AAC.

Sam Houston had a tough transition to the FBS last year, and I don’t expect that team to be much better this season.

PICK: Rice (-10) to win by more than 10 points

Sunday, Sept. 1

USC vs. LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC)

I may hate myself even more than I already do at halftime, but two new DCs — D’Anton Lynn at SC and Blake Baker at LSU — get to face offenses led by the guys replacing two Heisman winners.

All the talk has been about how bad these defenses were a year ago and how these two coaches were brought in to fix them. I’ll have faith that the combination of new schemes and new QBs on both sides leads to a lower than expected scoring game.

PICK: Under 64.5 points scored by both teams combined

UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE:

Miami (OH) +130

Florida +125

Stanford +290

Florida Atlantic +450

Coastal Carolina +130

CFB Week 1: Gambling Group Chat previews Penn State vs. WVU, LSU vs. USC and more!

BEAR BYTES

All times ET, Saturday, Aug. 31

Penn State @ West Virginia (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Since 2000, James Franklin is 20-6-1 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite of at least seven points. If you narrow it down to games in which Penn State was favored between seven and 24 points, Franklin is 16-0-1 ATS in that spot.

West Virginia went 0-3 last year against teams that finished ranked (-25.3 PPG, all by at least two touchdowns). The Mountaineers lost 38-15 to Penn State, 48-34 to Oklahoma State and 59-20 to Oklahoma. All three finished in the top 15. WVU went 9-1 against unranked teams.

Clemson vs. Georgia (noon, ABC)

Clemson hasn’t been this big of a ‘dog since 2012 when the Tigers lost 49-37 to Florida State as a 14.5-point underdog.

Notre Dame @ Texas A&M (7:30 p.m., ABC)

Since 2000, Texas A&M is 3-10 at Kyle Field when the Aggies are ranked and hosting a top-10 team. That spans five different coaches (R.C. Slocum 0-2, Dennis Franchione 0-1, Mike Sherman 1-1, Kevin Sumlin 1-4 and Jimbo Fisher 1-2).

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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