2024 College Football Week 5 predictions, best bets by Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica

chonprasit

College Football

Published Sep. 26, 2024 11:25 a.m. ET

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Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

College football Week 5 is here!

Just like last year, we are going to do weekly picks posts and have a gambling show.

As always, I look forward to sharing my best football bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you all throughout the season.

So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games, I’ve got you covered.

Let’s have some fun and, hopefully, make some money.

Here are my favorite wagers for Week 5.

Record

Last Week: 1-5

Season: 9-14

(All times ET)

Saturday, Sept. 28

Minnesota @ No. 12 Michigan (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)

The Gophers gave up 272 on the ground last week vs. Iowa. So, of course, I’ll take them and the points at Michigan, which threw for 32 yards, ran for 290 and got a non-offensive score in the upset of USC. We still aren’t sure if Colston Loveland will play for the Wolverines, and without him, the passing game will continue to be anemic and archaic.

PICK: Minnesota (+9.5) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points, or win outright

Maryland @ Indiana (noon, BTN)

I think Indiana is good. Like legit being-9-0-when-they-host-Michigan good. IU’s +165 scoring margin is bested by only Ole Miss, Tennessee, Miami and Texas. But the Terps represent the best offensive challenge for IU this season behind the QB-WR tandem of Billy Edwards Jr. and Tai Felton. This will not be an easy one for the Hoosiers.

PICK: Maryland (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points, or win outright

Nebraska @ Purdue (noon, Peacock)

I hate myself for this, but anytime you can grab 10 at home with a team that’s allowed 104 points the last two weeks, I have to do it.

PICK: Purdue (+10) to lose by fewer than 10 points, or win outright

Colorado at UCF: CFB Week 5 Super Six

No. 18 Iowa State @ Houston (7 p.m., FS1)

The Cyclones put up their best offensive performance of the young season last week, running and passing for over 230 each in a 52-7 rout of Arkansas State. This was the same Arkansas State that lost 28-18 at Michigan the week before. Still, Houston’s defense hasn’t been terrible this year, and off a shutout loss at Cincinnati, I’d expect this Willie Fritz team to put up a bit more of a fight.

PICK: Houston (+14.5) to lose by fewer than 14.5 points, or win outright

No. 19 Illinois @ No. 9 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)

My tour of the Big Ten ends in State College, where the Nittany Lions are a bigger-than-expected favorite over 4-0 Illinois. This is one of those classic games that James Franklin will cover. He’s 17-0-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2000 when favored between seven and 24 points. But on the field, I think they can have success throwing the ball and forcing the Illini to play from behind — something they really haven’t had to do this year. Nebraska had opportunities to get a stop and get up multiple scores on the Fighting Illini but just couldn’t do it. I think the talent level at Penn State is much better than that of Nebraska and expect the Nittany Lions to win by three touchdowns.

PICK: Penn State (-18) to win by more than 18 points

No. 8 Oregon @ UCLA (11 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

There’s a lot to like here with the Ducks. Oregon is coming off an idle week since playing its best game of the year against Oregon State. In addition, if Oregon gets up big, Dante Moore will see time. This means the playbook will likely remain open and Moore would likely want to put points up on his former team. UCLA played well enough last week at LSU, but this gauntlet of a schedule continues for the Bruins, and it likely will not end positively this week.

PICK: Oregon team total Over 39.5 points scored

CFB Week 5 Best Bets: Oregon vs. UCLA, Rutgers vs. Washington & more

UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE

Northern Illinois +230

UL Lafayette +140

North Carolina +125

Maryland +230

Auburn +130

Louisville +205

Minnesota +265

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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