2024 MLB odds: Paul Skenes extends his lead in the NL; Gil hits wall
We’re two weeks shy of the midpoint of the MLB season, and the Rookie of the Year betting board is starting to level off.
Shota Imanaga began the season on fire. He only gave up five runs in his first nine career starts, causing him to shoot up the NL ROY oddsboard, where he was the favorite for over a month.
However, after a few rocky starts for Imanaga, the odds have significantly changed.
The surging Paul Skenes is now the current favorite to win NL ROY.
Coming into the majors, expectations were high for Skenes, as he was the No. 1 pick of the 2023 MLB Draft.
After being called up on May 11, the dynamic right-hander has started nine games for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Over those starts, Skenes has shined with a 4-0 record, 2.06 ERA and 70 strikeouts.
Before his debut, Skenes’ NL ROY odds sat at +2500. Now he is the odds-on favorite to win the award at -270.
Let’s take a look at the ROY betting board in the National League at DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 2.
2024 NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR ODDS:
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates: -270 (bet $10 to win $13.70 total)
Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Joey Ortiz, Milwaukee Brewers: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
FOX Sports MLB writer Rowan Kavnar raved about Skenes remarkable career start in his latest Rookie Power Rankings, where the neophyte took the top spot.
“Skenes hasn’t logged the innings of other pitchers on this list, but it’s clear through nine starts he is already one of the most formidable arms in the sport,” he wrote.
RELATED: How many strikeouts can Paul Skenes tally?
“He has gone at least six innings while surrendering one or no runs in each of his past four starts, and he leads all qualified rookie starters in ERA, WHIP, strikeout percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratio. “
Although Merrill is within striking distance, another solid month from Skenes could end this race.
Now, lets take a look at the ROY odds in the AL as of July 2.
2024 AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR ODDS:
Luis Gil, New York Yankees: +180 (bet $10 to win $28 total)
Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers: +260 (bet $10 to win $36 total)
Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total
Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
It’s been an impressive rookie campaign for Gil thus far, and he is currently tied for the fifth-most wins in the majors. However, he has recently gone cold, only striking out six batters while giving up 16 earned runs in his last three starts.
Although he still remains the favorite, his odds to win the AL ROY have lengthened to +180 from -115 over the past week.
In his rankings, Kavnar speculated that Gil may be suffering from fatigue.
“The first thought is that he might be getting tired,” Kavnar theorized.
“The 26-year-old threw a total of 25.5 innings the previous two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and has never thrown more than 96 innings in a professional season — a number he is fast approaching — though he insists he is not fatigued (for whatever it’s worth, he has maintained his fastball velocity) and that it’s more of a mechanical issue.”
Meanwhile, Wyatt Langford has recently moved up boards, shortening all the way to +250 from +1400 in the last two weeks. Kansas City’s exceptional left fielder had a torrid June, batting .309 with 30 hits, three homers, 22 RBIs and 11 runs scored in 26 games.
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