2024 NCAA Tournament projections: Arizona makes big jump, St. John’s on the bubble

College Basketball

Updated Feb. 13, 2024 1:28 p.m. ET

As we inch closer to the month of March, the madness throughout college basketball is at an all-time high, with four teams ranked inside the top 10 dropping games this past week.

FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy is here to help fans sort through the madness. He released his updated NCAA Tournament projections on Tuesday morning, with plenty of big changes at the top.

UConn (East), Houston (South) and Purdue (Midwest) remain No. 1 seeds, while Arizona (West) makes a jump up to the top line. The Wildcats have won five in a row and seven of their last eight heading into a matchup against in-state rival Arizona State on Saturday.

Tennessee, Marquette and Kansas remain on the 2-line and are now joined by North Carolina. The Tar Heels suffered a loss to unranked Clemson at home this past week, and followed that up with a narrow victory over Miami.

Sitting on the 3-line is Baylor, Duke, Alabama and Iowa State, while Auburn, South Carolina, Creighton and Illinois make up the No. 4 seeds in DeCourcy’s latest projections.

As for teams on the bubble, DeCourcy has Butler, Gonzaga, Cincinnati and Providence as his last four teams in the tournament. Wake Forest, Seton Hall, St. John’s and Utah are the first four teams out, while Colorado, Memphis, Villanova and Kansas State are the next four out.

The Big 12 has the most representatives in DeCourcy’s compilation with 10 teams, with the SEC second at nine teams. The Big Ten and Mountain West each have six teams in the tournament, according to DeCourcy’s latest projections, while the Big East has five. The ACC has four teams, and the Pac-12 and WCC have two teams represented.

Here are the complete brackets from DeCourcy: