2024 NCAA Tournament projections: Duke makes big jump; Oregon on the bubble

College Basketball

Updated Feb. 20, 2024 1:47 p.m. ET

We are officially 26 days away from Selection Sunday, which means it’s time for FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy to release his updated NCAA Tournament projections.

DeCourcy’s latest projections feature several changes at the top, including a big jump from a pair of blue bloods.

UConn (East), Houston (South), Purdue (Midwest) and Arizona (West) remain on the top line, despite the Boilermakers falling to unranked Ohio State this past weekend.

Tennessee, Marquette and Kansas remain on the 2-line and are now joined by North Carolina. The Tar Heels defeated Virginia Tech on Saturday and have an upcoming matchup at Virginia (4 p.m. ET Saturday), which will have major implications in the ACC race.

Iowa State, Alabama, Baylor are listed as No. 3 seeds, while Duke made a jump up to the 3-line after winning its fourth straight game, a road win over Florida State this past Saturday.

Meanwhile, Auburn, Illinois, Creighton and San Diego State make up the No. 4 seeds in DeCourcy’s latest projections.

As for teams on the bubble, DeCourcy has Ole Miss, Butler, Nevada and Texas A&M as his last four teams in the tournament. Wake Forest, Villanova, Cincinnati and Utah are listed as his first four out, while Pittsburgh, Drake, Colorado and Oregon are the next four out.

The Big 12 and SEC are tied for the most representatives in DeCourcy’s compilation with nine teams apiece. The Big Ten, Mountain West and Big East all have six teams in the tournament, according to DeCourcy’s latest projections, while the ACC has four teams, and the Pac-12 and WCC each have two teams represented.

Here are the complete brackets from DeCourcy: