2024 NFC Championship odds: Three reasons to bet on Lions against 49ers

National Football League

Published Jan. 25, 2024 3:56 p.m. ET

It’s conference championship week in the NFL, and on Sunday, the Detroit Lions square off against the San Francisco 49ers on FOX and the FOX Sports app.

On one side, you have the underdog Lions, who are in the midst of one of their best seasons since the AFL-NFL merger. They had 12 wins in the regular season, which is tied for most wins in franchise history. They made the playoffs for only the fourth time this century and won their first playoff game in over 30 years. This marks the second time they have been in the NFC title game.

On the other hand, you have the 49ers, who are no strangers to success. They have five Super Bowl wins (tied for second-most), seven conference championships and 22 division titles. In fact, this appearance marks the 19th time San Francisco has played for the NFC crown and the fourth time they’ve been here in five seasons.

Should you back the Lions to beat the mighty Goliath that is the 49ers?

FOX Sports betting analyst Geoff Schwartz thinks so and offers up three reasons why.

1. Lions offensive line

Offensive lines can often be judged by their weakest link and these Lions don’t have any.

This group is one of the best in the NFL, starting with their unshakable guards. Their left tackle, Taylor Decker, has been rock solid for eight seasons. And right tackle Penei Sewell (first-team) and center Frank Ragnow (second-team) both got All Pro nods this year.

The Lions can win this game with their run blocking, as they are 10th in rushing EPA and fifth in yards per rush. The 49ers defense is 26th against the run and has been gashed by the Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers in the last month.

Running the ball will help the Lions with two things: wearing down the 49ers defense and keeping the ball away from the 49ers offense.

Detriot’s Jared Goff completed 75% of his passes without pressure and only 52.8% when pressured. That’s the largest drop of any quarterback this season. Keeping Goff upright and pressure-free will be a key component to winning.

The 49ers pass rush is not what it’s been in the past, so the Lions line should be able to get the job done.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions: Who has the edge?

2. Deebo Samuel’s injury

Niners quarterback Brock Purdy played four games this season without wide receiver Deebo Samuel (or he played less than 10 snaps) and the results were not good.

Purdy’s completion percentage dropped 10% and his passer rating fell 40 points without Samuel. Furthermore, Purdy went from less than 0.5 interceptions per game with Samuel to 1.25 interceptions per game without him.

And the results were evident on the scoreboard, as San Francisco averaged 32 points with Deebo and only 18 when he was out.

It’s safe to say the 49ers are a different team without their star wideout on the field.

It’s worth pointing out that the Lions defense is not good against the pass. It ranks 31st in yards per attempt, 27th in pass touchdowns and 23rd in sacks.

However, the Lions can focus their attention on the other Niners receiving options in Samuel’s absence, if he indeed misses the game.

I believe Samuel not being able to play will be a huge factor in the Lions winning.

Who are the 49ers without Deebo Samuel?

3. Biting Knee Caps

Dan Campbell’s infamous introductory press conference included him discussing the idea of “biting knee caps.” At the time, we laughed at this reference and many mocked Campbell for being overly aggressive with his description of how he wanted his team to play.

Three years later, Campbell is having the last laugh, with his Lions squad playing exactly how he envisioned: tough, physical and aggressive.

According to the FTNFantasy aggressiveness index, the Lions head coach is tops in aggressiveness rank. He goes for it on fourth down more often than not when the numbers point to success.

On the other hand, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan routinely turns down fourth down chances, kicks too many field goals in the red zone and loves to coach conservatively. We have seen too many instances of Shanahan getting tight when he needs to keep the foot on the pedal.

The Lions entering this game with that aggressive mindset gives them a mental edge over the 49ers.

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.