2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Chiefs, Bills clinch berths; wild race in NFC West

National Football League

Updated Dec. 1, 2024 10:58 p.m. ET

The AFC postseason field is nearly secure, and so are five of the seven spots in the NFC. Even in the NFC South the Falcons and Bucs have separated themselves from the rest of the division.

And then there is the wild NFC West.

With five weeks to go, all four teams have a legitimate shot to win the division and a spot in the playoff field. The Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers are all separated by just two games, which means every game will matter over the next month.

And there are some huge games coming up in the next 11 days, like when the Seahawks head to Arizona next Sunday afternoon, and when the Rams play in San Francisco four days later on Thursday night.

Maybe the NFC West race will be a little clearer after those games, because right now it is one big muddled mess.

Here is the entire NFL playoff picture through Week 13:

(x-Clinched playoff berth)

AFC

x-1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)

They clinched their 10th consecutive playoff berth on Black Friday with yet another unimpressive win — this time over the Las Vegas Raiders. They can even lock up their ninth straight AFC West title with a win over the Chargers next Sunday. Their goals, of course, are higher than that. They’re looking for their third straight Super Bowl championship, but they haven’t looked like a championship-caliber team in a while. Their last win by more than a touchdown came Oct. 20 in San Francisco. In their last two games, they beat the Panthers and Raiders — two of the worst teams in football — by a total of 5 points.

Playoff probability: 100%

x-2. Buffalo Bills (10-2)

They picked up right where they left off before their bye week and became the first team in 15 years to clinch a division title with five games still to play. The AFC East was never much of a race, of course, and the Bills have far bigger goals. Their snow-bowl win over the beat-up 49ers was their seventh straight victory and gives them a lot of momentum heading into a two-game road swing to Los Angeles (the Rams) and Detroit. They might need to win both those games in their quest to win the top seed in the AFC, which they desperately want.

Playoff probability: 100%

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)

There has been no question at all that the Steelers have a defense good enough to power a run through the playoffs. The only questions were about their offense. But boy did Russell Wilson help answer them on Sunday, throwing for 414 yards and three touchdowns as Pittsburgh put up 44 points and 520 yards on the Bengals. OK, Cincinnati’s defense isn’t good, but it was still the Steelers’ best offensive output of the season. They needed this game too, because after the Browns at home next week, they are at Philadelphia, at Baltimore and home to play the Chiefs.

Playoff probability: 99%

4. Houston Texans (8-5)

They don’t win a lot of style points for just barely holding off the awful Jacksonville Jaguars and allowing two touchdowns in the final eight minutes to make it close. But a win is a win and it keeps them two games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. They are limping into their bye week having gone just 3-4 since their impressive, 5-1 start. They better figure out what’s going on quickly, because when they come out of their bye they’ve got the Dolphins, Chiefs and Ravens up next.

Playoff probability: 97%

5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)

For the second straight week, they couldn’t get much out of their offense, but they got enough for a win because their defense really stepped up. The Chargers picked off Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins four times, and even returned one for L.A.’s only touchdown of the game. They should be worried about putting up only 187 yards on the No. 25 defense in the NFL. It was their first game since putting running back J.K. Dobbins on injured reserve, which surely didn’t help.

Playoff probability: 94%

6. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)

They’re still in great position, but they aren’t exactly heading into their bye week on a roll after losing two of their last three games. Yes, those games were against the Steelers and Eagles, but that’s the level the Ravens think they can play on. It should be a bit worrisome that both of those defenses slowed down Derrick Henry and, as a result, slowed down the entire Baltimore offense. The Ravens are going to have to figure out how to win when Henry isn’t carrying them. The good news is they have a “get right” game on the road against the Giants when they get back.

Playoff probability: 97%

7. Denver Broncos (7-5)

They may be clinging to the last AFC playoff spot as they head into their home game against the Cleveland Browns on Monday night, but really, who’s going to challenge them for it? The Dolphins looked dangerous before their loss in Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. The Colts are on their heels, but they barely got by the New England Patriots on Sunday. A win on Monday night will send Denver into its bye week looking good with a two-game lead. They might even be able to clinch a spot when they return with a home game against the Colts on Dec. 15.

Playoff probability: 68%

On the outside looking in: The Indianapolis Colts (6-7) kept their hopes alive with a come-from-behind, last-minute win in New England. But they head into their bye week with four losses in their last six games and they still need help from the Broncos or Texans at some point. … The Miami Dolphins (5-7) three-game winning streak ended because they just can’t win in the cold. The good news is it’ll be warmer when they face the Jets at home next Sunday. They’re good enough to make a run, but every game now is really a must-win.

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NFC

1. Detroit Lions (11-1)

They can thank Matt Eberflus for their Thanksgiving Day win, but don’t be alarmed that they almost let that game slip away. The truth is, there haven’t been many games in the last month and a half where the Lions weren’t dominant. They are still the best team in the NFC, if not the entire league. But holding onto the top seed won’t necessarily be easy. They’ve got games against the Packers, Bills and Vikings over their last five games. Lucky for them, though, all three of those games are at home.

Playoff probability: 99%

2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)

Their 24-19 win in Baltimore on Sunday wasn’t just the Eagles’ eighth straight since the bye week. It was their signature win. They stuffed the Ravens’ dangerous offense, holding Derrick Henry under 100 yards and keeping Lamar Jackson in check, leaving no doubt that they have a defense good enough to challenge for a championship. They are clicking on all cylinders right now and Saquon Barkley (107 rushing yards) is playing like an MVP. They get Carolina next, then a big test at home against the Steelers on Dec. 15.

Playoff probability: 99%

3. Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

They pulled off a heck of a comeback against the New York Jets on Sunday, though it was mostly due to the Jets handing them a game-winning touchdown with five penalties on that fourth-quarter drive. They’ll take it, though. It was their third straight win coming off their bye and it keeps them in first place in the most competitive division in the NFL. Their schedule gets much tougher the rest of the way, starting with a huge NFC West showdown in Arizona next Sunday.

Playoff probability: 47%

4. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)

Whatever they did during their bye week, it sure didn’t work. They blew a huge effort by their defense on Sunday as quarterback Kirk Cousins literally threw away the game with four interceptions, including a Pick-6. It was their third straight loss, which has allowed the rest of the NFC South to climb back into the race. And things aren’t going to get easier next Sunday when the Falcons try to stop their losing streak up in Minnesota.

Playoff probability: 56%

5. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)

It never looks easy with the Vikings, but somehow they just keep winning. This time they needed a 70-yard drive in three minutes to edge the Arizona Cardinals. They have now won five straight games and none of them were particularly impressive. But with a top-5 defense and top-10 offense, they have to be taken seriously as a contender. Just how seriously will become obvious in the last two weeks of the season when they play Green Bay and then at Detroit.

Playoff probability: 99%

6. Green Bay Packers (9-3)

Their win over the Dolphins was their third straight since their bye week and seventh in eight games overall. And the last two weeks they’ve looked like a force, beating the Dolphins and 49ers by a combined score of 68-27. The game of their season, though, comes Thursday night in Detroit. If they can somehow beat the Lions on a short week, they’ll have a real chance to win the NFC North, which is clearly the best division in football.

Playoff probability: 97%

7. Washington Commanders (8-5)

For three weeks — and three losses — the Commanders were bombarded with questions about whether their Cinderella season was over and if rookie sensation Jayden Daniels had hit a wall. Apparently, they didn’t want to have to answer them during their bye week, so they took out their frustrations on the Titans. Their 44 points were a season high and their 463 yards were their second most. Daniels threw for three touchdowns and ran for one, too. Now they can rest easy knowing they’ll still be in playoff position when they return in two weeks.

Playoff probability: 71%

On the outside looking in: It wasn’t easy and they very nearly blew it several times, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) held on to beat the Panthers in overtime on Sunday. They’ve won two straight now and get the Raiders next. Nobody in their division can afford a loss right now … The Arizona Cardinals (6-6) were so close to a big win in Minnesota, but they couldn’t overcome two fourth-quarter interceptions by Kyler Murray. They can make up for it with a big showdown next Sunday at home vs. Seattle. … The Los Angeles Rams (6-6) came back and held on to beat the New Orleans Saints so they’re still in this. But a real tough game against the Buffalo Bills looms on Sunday. … The San Francisco 49ers (5-7) are in last place in the NFC West after their loss in Buffalo Sunday night. They’re still very much in the division race, but if Christian McCaffrey (knee) is out for long, the race might already be over for them. … Do you believe in miracles? The Dallas Cowboys (5-7) do. Their win over the Giants on Thanksgiving was their second straight, and with games against the Bengals and Panthers on tap, they have their eyes on a .500 record, and maybe more.

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Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.