2024 NFL Power Rankings Week 5: Which upstarts have staying power?

Hate me if you must, but there’s a trust factor with Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh that very few teams can touch. Jackson and Derrick Henry are going to be very tough to slow down for most NFL teams. And much more importantly, Week 4 was the first time Baltimore’s defense resembled the fire-breathing unit we remember from last year.

4. Minnesota Vikings (4-0; ⬆️ 7)

Super Bowl odds: +1700

You won’t find a more impressive feat in the league so far this year than downing San Francisco, Houston and Green Bay, back to back to back. At the very least, Brian Flores’ defense is going to keep the Vikings in every game they play. With that as a baseline, it’s all about finding out just how high Sam Darnold can raise their ceiling. Right now, it’s looking pretty darn high.

5. Buffalo Bills (3-1; ⬇️ 3)

Super Bowl odds: +1000

I’m willing to give the Bills some grace because Sunday was the first time they’ve lost a regular-season game by more than six points in almost three years. These things happen. Having said that, it’s fair to wonder how well-equipped they are to stop the run against a team that’s determined to pound the rock.

6. Houston Texans (3-1; ↔)

Super Bowl odds: +1300

On one hand, the Texans haven’t played their best football for much of the first month. On the other hand, the Texans are 3-1 despite that fact. It’s a nice fallback plan to have C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins.

7. San Francisco 49ers (2-2; ⬆️ 1)

Super Bowl odds: +650

People have been quick to question Brock Purdy, so let’s make sure we’re giving credit when it’s due. Injuries have forced San Francisco to play short-handed for much of the season, and it hasn’t made a difference to him. It doesn’t feel like a stretch to say the best thing the Niners have going right now is their quarterback.

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1; ⬆️ 5)

Super Bowl odds: +3700

The Eagles’ offense might be depleted, but that was a mostly healthy Philly defense that got destroyed Sunday in Tampa. If not for Sam Darnold, we might be talking about Baker Mayfield as the way-too-early NFL MVP front-runner.

9. Washington Commanders (3-1; ⬆️ 9)

Super Bowl odds: +5000

Maybe this will change, but the Commanders have put together the best résumé of anyone in the NFC East through one month. Obviously, Jayden Daniels is the catalyst, but make sure you credit a surprisingly solid offensive line. And Washington’s defense flexed some muscle in Arizona on Sunday.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2; ⬇️ 6)

Super Bowl odds: +1400

I’m choosing to believe that taking a week off to get Lane Johnson, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith healthy will make a world of difference for the Eagles. But you also can’t completely ignore that the Birds’ secondary looks lousy and Jalen Hurts has a turnover issue.

11. Green Bay Packers (2-2; ⬇️ 4)

Super Bowl odds: +2700

If that was Jordan Love’s first game back from injury, I’m not too worried about the Packers in the big picture. He made too many mistakes, but he also racked up yards and points on a buzzsaw of a defense.

12. New Orleans Saints (2-2; ⬇️ 2)

Super Bowl odds: +5000

Two turnovers for two Falcons touchdowns were the difference between the Saints winning comfortably and losing in Atlanta. Those are the breaks sometimes, but maybe it’s at least a silver lining that New Orleans played better on both sides of the ball after a rough day against Philly.

13. Seattle Seahawks (3-1; ⬇️ 1)

Super Bowl odds: +3200

Zero incompletions and 200-plus yards of YAC is an abysmal showing from an NFL defense, even if the Seahawks were dealing with half a dozen injuries. Still, it’s hard to feel too bad about Seattle when Geno Smith is capable of putting on a show like he did in Detroit.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1; ↔)

Super Bowl odds: +5000

Peak NFL weirdness that the Steelers’ offense had its best game of the season on the day Pittsburgh suffered its first loss. The second half rally instilled some confidence that maybe Justin Fields & Co. can do slightly more than stay out of the way. Now, keep it up.

15. Atlanta Falcons (2-2; ⬆️ 4)

Super Bowl odds: +2700

Interesting vibes with this team. It’s not always pretty, but I really admire the way the Falcons always manage to stay in it until the final buzzer — and they’ve pulled two wins out of the fire. That type of confidence can be valuable later on.

16. Dallas Cowboys (2-2; ↔)

Super Bowl odds: +2100

The Cowboys finally stopped the run and Dak Prescott played well. That’s about the extent of the good stuff from last Thursday. Dallas barely scraped past the Giants, and both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence got hurt in the process. Doesn’t exactly inspire confidence moving forward.

17. New York Jets (2-2; ⬇️ 8)

Super Bowl odds: +2100

I think the Jets are a better team than this overall, but it sure didn’t look like it in Week 4. I’ve got no choice but to drop you if you fail to score a touchdown at home against a team led by a rookie QB. It’s the type of loss that haunts you all season.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3; ⬇️ 3)

Super Bowl odds: +3000

Naturally, the Bengals get their first win in a game that makes you feel worse about them. The problem has never been Joe Burrow and the offense. If the Bengals struggled that much to slow down Carolina, who exactly are they going to stop?

19. Chicago Bears (2-2; ⬆️ 4)

Super Bowl odds: +6000

At long last, a real sign of growth from Caleb Williams and the Bears offense. The way the defense and special teams are playing, even mediocre offense will give them a shot to win plenty of games.

20. Los Angeles Rams (1-2; ⬇️ 3)

Super Bowl odds: +8500

I’m so impressed by how the Rams are piecing it together despite all the injuries. I know they lost to Chicago, but the defense showed improvement and Matthew Stafford is enough of a wizard to keep them competitive. Can they survive the wait for reinforcements?

21. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2; ⬆️ 1)

Super Bowl odds: +6500

I think losing to the Chiefs is the Chargers’ most impressive moment of the season. That defense hung tough against Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert gutted it out despite no offensive tackles and a gimpy ankle. I still don’t believe in this team, but they showed some Jim Harbaugh grit.

22. Indianapolis Colts (2-2; ⬆️ 3)

Super Bowl odds: +5000

Hopefully, Anthony Richardson won’t miss any time, but you’ve got to admit it’s a bit of an adrenaline rush to see Joe Flacco step in and sling it again.

23. Denver Broncos (2-2; ⬆️ 1)

Super Bowl odds: +17000

I’ll be thinking about the fact that the Broncos managed to win a game while averaging 2.4 yards per passing attempt for a long, long time. One of the strangest two-game win streaks I’ve seen in a while.

24. Arizona Cardinals (1-3; ⬇️ 3)

Super Bowl odds: +8500

I went into Week 4 thinking the Cardinals would need to score 30-plus to beat the Commanders. I don’t begrudge their undermanned defense for giving up points, but I did think the offense would have a better showing.

25. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2; ⬆️ 5)

Super Bowl odds: +14000

One of several teams I can’t quite figure out. The Raiders have had some nice highs and some really perplexing lows. A division game against a similarly frustrating Denver team will give them a chance to build on some success.

26. Cleveland Browns (1-3; ⬇️ 6)

Super Bowl odds: +6500

It doesn’t feel like a good sign that Deshaun Watson’s best game of the season still saw the Browns manage just 16 points and 241 yards of offense. Cleveland is the only team in the league that hasn’t scored 20 points in a game.

27. Carolina Panthers (1-3; ⬆️ 2)

Super Bowl odds: +40000

You never want to be so bad that being watchable is a victory, but that’s where the Panthers are right now. Andy Dalton has turned this into a regular bad NFL team, instead of a historically bad NFL team.

28. New York Giants (1-3; ⬇️ 2)

Super Bowl odds: +18000

Daniel Jones was pretty solid against Dallas, but his brutal accuracy on deep balls might’ve been the difference between winning and losing.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4; ⬇️ 2)

Super Bowl odds: +11000

What’s worse: getting housed by 37, or getting your heart ripped out with 18 seconds to play? This year has gone wrong for the Jaguars in just about every way imaginable, and it’s enough to make you wonder about the big picture for Doug Pederson.

30. Tennessee Titans (1-3; ⬆️ 2)

Super Bowl odds: +16000

The Titans finally got a win, and they scored 30 points for the first time in 1,002 days. Good for them. It doesn’t change the fact that Monday’s victory in Miami will be one of the ugliest games of the 2024 season.

31. Miami Dolphins (1-3; ⬇️ 4)

Super Bowl odds: +11000

At least we can put to rest the notion that Tua Tagovailoa is some kind of “system” quarterback. It’s not their fault, but the Dolphins just aren’t a serious team without their starting quarterback.

32. New England Patriots (1-3; ⬇️ 4)

Super Bowl odds: +24000

The first two weeks were a pleasant surprise, but the Pats have settled into the funk most of us were expecting at the outset. The personnel on this offense is going to make it tough to compete.

David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

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