2024 NFL Week 11 betting recap: Books content with ‘a good end to a solid day’
As Sunday afternoon bled into Sunday night, multiple sportsbooks reported having a decent day with NFL Week 11 odds. But Prime Sportsbook’s Joe Brennan Jr. was proceeding with caution heading into the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers clash.
And he even worked in a classic Thanksgiving reference as the big holiday approaches.
“The only disaster bigger than the WKRP turkey drop would be to give everything back from a solid NFL Sunday,” Brennan said, while adding his version of the infamous Les Nessman quote. “As God is my witness, I thought the Chargers could cover.”
The Chargers, 1-point favorites, did all they could not to cover, blowing a 21-point second-half lead. But they got to the finish line, to the detriment of the public betting masses.
Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
Down To The Wire
The Chargers went into halftime with a 24-6 lead, and they opened the second half with a field-goal drive to go up 27-6. Then it all started going sideways, like throwing live turkeys from a helicopter on that episode of WKRP in Cincinnati.
The Bengals scored the next 21 points to tie the game at 27. Both teams then had multiple opportunities to add points but failed to do so. Cincinnati had two missed field goals that helped seal its fate.
Ultimately, in the final minute, Los Angeles drove 84 yards in four plays to win 34-27. J.K. Dobbins finished the drive with a 29-yard touchdown run.
Said Brennan pregame: “We’re pulling for the Chargers, to have any hope of breaking what is close to a month-long streak of Sunday Night Football being a bloodbath for us.”
Postgame: “It’s the first time in a while that our Prime Sportsbook team can lay our heads down and actually sleep, instead of nursing a gnawing knot in our guts that another SNF decision soured our NFL Sunday results. It was a good end to a solid day.”
Late-Games Lift
Sunday’s early games offered some give-and-take between the bookmakers and the bettors. Of course, the recreational customers were all over the Detroit Lions as 13.5-point home favorites vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. And the Lions delivered huge in a 52-6 wipeout.
But the Green Bay Packers, very popular 6-point favorites, failed to cover while escaping Chicago with a 20-19 win.
The big late-window games — Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills, and Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers — were key for The SuperBook in Las Vegas. Buffalo was a 2.5-point favorite and got a big late touchdown drive to wrap up a 30-21 victory.
And Seattle, a 6-point underdog at San Francisco, posted a 20-17 upset on quarterback Geno Smith’s 12-yard TD run in the waning seconds.
“Seattle winning was really good for us. The Bills win was good, too. Finally, a big afternoon,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said.
Added BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis: “The 49ers getting beaten most certainly helped the day.”
Blocked-Kick Blues
Another outcome that was good for the oddsmakers but could’ve been much better: The aforementioned Packers’ 20-19 win over the Bears.
Chicago covering the spread for BetMGM was significant. Green Bay took more point-spread bets than any other team in NFL Week 11 odds, and the Packers took the second-most point-spread money, behind only Detroit.
Chicago had a chance to win outright. Trailing 20-19 in the final seconds, the Bears lined up for a 46-yard field-goal attempt to win it. But the Packers blocked the kick to preserve the win.
“We would have liked that kick to go through. The Bears covering was still a winning outcome for the book. It just would’ve been better with an outright win,” Cipollini said.
Added The SuperBook’s Murray: “If the Bears had won outright, we really would’ve had a huge day.”
The Good and The Bad
Prior to his shop coming out ahead on the Chargers’ victory, Brennan noted Prime Sportsbook’s key pluses and minuses in the NFL Week 11 odds market.
“The good: New Orleans winning was huge. Pittsburgh outright was another solid result, while Indianapolis winning outright helped tremendously,” Brennan said.
The Saints were 1-point home underdogs to Cleveland and rolled to a 35-14 victory. Pittsburgh, a 3-point home ‘dog, edged Baltimore 18-16. Indianapolis, a 4-point road ‘dog, rallied for a 28-27 victory over the New York Jets.
“The bad: Miami cruising, Minnesota covering and Detroit putting up cricket numbers,” Brennan said.
For those unfamiliar, cricket’s scoring system leads to big numbers. And the Lions, as noted above, put up a monster number on Sunday. Detroit scored seven touchdowns, then tacked on a field goal for its last score in the 52-6 beatdown of Jacksonville.
Miami actually wasn’t covering late against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Dolphins, 8-point home favorites, were up 24-19 after Vegas scored a TD with 4:23 remaining. But Tua Tagovailoa then hit Jonnu Smith with a 57-yard TD pass, and the Dolphins tacked on a field goal to win and cover, 34-19.
Minnesota was a 6-point favorite at Tennessee and won 23-13.
On Campus
Tennessee vs. Georgia highlighted college football Week 12 odds. And BetMGM got what it wanted.
Said trading manager Seamus Magee pregame Saturday: “We really just want Georgia to win this game.”
Magee wasn’t concerned with Georgia covering the 8.5-point spread. BetMGM just needed to avoid an outright Tennessee upset.
At halftime, the game was tied at 17. But the Bulldogs shut out the Vols in the second half en route to a 31-17 victory.
Another SEC contest also proved better for the books than the bettors. LSU was a 3.5-point favorite at Florida and lost outright 27-16.
“That was a big result for us,” Magee said.
And yet another SEC matchup also went against the public betting masses at BetMGM: Texas beat Arkansas 20-10, but failed to cover as a 13.5-point road favorite.
“We needed Arkansas big. Texas was one of the most-bet sides of the day,” Magee said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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