2024 NFL Week 2 betting recap: ‘We couldn’t have written a better script’

National Football League

Published Sep. 16, 2024 12:16 p.m. ET

When the NFL Sunday schedule features 10 games in the early window and a bunch of popular favorites fall flat, there’s no getting around it: The public betting masses take a big bath.

That’s what happened with NFL Week 2 odds.

Baltimore Ravens? Loser. Dallas Cowboys? Loser. Detroit Lions? Loser. San Francisco 49ers? Loser.

“The Ravens losing was a monumental result for us. Cowboys and Niners, as well. We couldn’t have written a better script,” said Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports for TwinSpires Sportsbook.

Oddsmakers at sportsbooks large and small across the country sang a similar refrain, while recapping the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.

Cowboys Crumble

In terms of the point spread, the Las Vegas Raiders’ 26-23 victory over Baltimore was the biggest upset on Sunday. But in terms of the most surprising outcome, that honor must go to the New Orleans Saints’ 44-19 roasting of the Dallas Cowboys.

The Saints were 6.5-point road underdogs, and they were the consensus need of oddsmakers Sunday.

“It’s one-way traffic on the Cowboys. We’re gonna need the Saints,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said before kickoff.

Joe Brennan Jr., executive chairman of Prime Sportsbook, put out a more blanket pregame statement.

“I would be shocked if there is a bookmaker out there who is not going to need the Saints. Both sharps and the public seem to have found that game,” Brennan said.

So the Saints’ upset suited Brennan and countless other bookmakers just fine.

“We were huge Saints fans today, and they came through big time,” Brennan said afterward.

Added South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews: “Maybe the Saints really are good. They came out strong today.”

Dak Prescott, Cowboys embarrased by Derek Carr, Saints

Moneyline Parlay Punchout

The main reason those four upsets were so huge behind the counter stems from a weekly ritual in the NFL: recreational bettors stringing together popular favorites — or even popular teams who might be underdogs on occasion — on moneyline parlay bets.

With moneyline parlays, the bettor doesn’t have to worry about the point spread. All each team has to do is win the game. Which, with bigger favorites, sounds easy enough.

Until it’s not.

Along with the Saints and Raiders’ takedowns, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went to Detroit as 7.5-point underdogs and beat the Lions 20-16. And the Minnesota Vikings, 4-point home underdogs, beat defending NFC champ San Francisco 23-17.

By the time the three late-window games rolled around Sunday, everybody’s moneyline parlay tickets were torn up.

“No doubt, we had a great early window,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said. “The Raiders, Saints and Browns were all very good for us. The Saints game was stunning.”

Cleveland obviously doesn’t fit the mold of the other big upsets. But it boosted The SuperBook’s bottom line, as the Browns — 3-point underdogs at Jacksonville — won 18-13.

Baker Mayfield, Bucs upset Jared Goff, Lions on the road

Chiefs, Texans Fail To Cover

In the big late-window game, the Kansas City Chiefs were a hugely popular point-spread play at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. Kansas City closed as a 6.5-point favorite but trailed multiple times.

The Chiefs ultimately squeaked out a 26-25 win on a Harrison Butker 51-yard field goal as time expired. But that meant the Bengals covered with relative ease.

That was key for Prime Sportsbook.

“There are two truths this year: We will probably always need Carolina, and we’ll be rooting against K.C.,” Brennan said.

The Panthers were a fairly universal bookmaker need on Sunday. But Carolina, a 4.5-point home underdog vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, continued to look dreadful in a 26-3 loss.

However, with all the upsets on Sunday, giving some money back to Chargers customers hardly mattered.

Then on Sunday night, C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans closed as 6.5-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears. Sharp bettors were on Chicago, though that money was overwhelmed by public support for Houston.

Said Brennan pregame: “Bears vs. Texans is setting up to be the biggest pro vs. recreational game of the week. The pros love Chicago. However, the public can’t get enough of Houston.”

Final result: Houston won 19-13, but Chicago covered the 6.5-point spread.

“A Bears win would’ve been better, but the cover was good,” SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson said.

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On Campus

Multiple oddsmakers reported a high volume of betting Saturday on college football Week 3 odds. But there was much more give-and-take between the books and the bettors.

No surprise, a key win for the customers came from Alabama, which was a 15.5-point road favorite and hammered Wisconsin 42-10.

“Everybody had ‘Bama, so that wasn’t good for us,” Andrews said

On the flip side, Notre Dame helped out the South Point. A week after the Fighting Irish suffered a shocking home loss to Northern Illinois, bettors looked to go the other way for Notre Dame’s road game vs. Purdue.

The Irish were 7-point favorites and took a wrecking ball to the Boilermakers, winning 66-7.

“Notre Dame was great for us. Everybody was on Purdue,” Andrews said.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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