2024 NFL Week 4 action report: Books hoping upset trend continues

chonprasit

National Football League

Published Sep. 26, 2024 1:19 p.m. ET

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the public betting masses.

But rest assured, they’ll be back for more in NFL Week 4 odds.

The carnage was mostly due to moneyline parlays falling apart. Last week, stunning outright losses by Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas and San Francisco took a toll on recreational bettors.

This week, the Detroit Lions will be the final leg on countless moneyline parlays, for their Monday night game vs. the unbeaten Seattle Seahawks.

“We’re hoping parlays tied to the Lions on Monday night will die on Sunday with some upsets, like the last couple weeks,” SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said.

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on a handful of games, as we dive into this week’s NFL betting nuggets.

NFL Rocks On FOX

FOX is home to a few interesting matchups on Sunday.

Perhaps most notable is the Philadelphia Eagles vs. the Buccaneers at 1 p.m. ET.

It’s a rematch from last season’s NFC wild-card round. Philly was a 3-point road favorite in that game and got drilled by Tampa 32-9.

This time around, the Eagles are 2-point favorites at Tampa, despite being banged up.

“The real question here is with the Eagles’ injuries. Two offensive lineman are questionable, and DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are questionable. The Eagles offense has struggled, not having all its pieces,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.

Philadelphia squeaked out a 15-12 Week 3 win at New Orleans, scoring just two touchdowns and a 2-point conversion. And Tampa Bay is coming off a stunning 27-6 home loss to Denver.

Those results are impacting early bets on Eagles-Bucs.

“The action we are seeing is more geared toward the Under,” Feazel said, noting the total opened at 46.5 and midweek is down to 44.

Game of the Week

The matchup that stands out most in NFL Week 4 odds is the Buffalo Bills vs. the Baltimore Ravens.

Josh Allen has the Bills at 3-0 straight up (SU)/2-1 against the spread (ATS). Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (1-2 SU and ATS) needed three weeks to get their first win, holding off Dallas 28-25 on the road.

But Baltimore is favored to get No. 2 on Sunday night.

“We’re taking Bills action, but we’ve seen line movement the other way,” Feazel said, noting last week’s lookahead line was Ravens -1.5, and the Ravens are now -2.5. “But I don’t see this going to 3, with the amount of Bills money that will come into the market.”

The total is up a point from 45.5 to 46.5.

“What we’ve seen so far is a lot of Over money. The Ravens are known as a defensive team, but they’ve taken a step back. All three games have gone over the total,” Feazel said.

And the Bills are scoring points in bushels (37.3 ppg). In Week 3 at home, Buffalo throttled Jacksonville 47-10.

“Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady has really impressed me. He’s putting opposing defensive coordinators in the spin cycle,” Feazel said.

NFL Sharp Side Professional bettor Randy McKay liked the Packers and Lions against the spread last week, and he got there with both wagers. This week, he’s involved with three games, including the aforementioned Bills-Ravens showdown.

“I took Baltimore -2 at home. Buffalo being impressive so far has created value for the home team Baltimore, which should be able to have success running the football,” McKay said.

He’s also backing another short home ‘dog in NFL Week 4 odds: Atlanta -1 vs. New Orleans.

“A cheap number here with the Falcons is nice. I feel like this should be up in the -3 range,” McKay said.

And finally, McKay is supporting a team that was perhaps the worst in Week 3. Sensing an overreaction in the market, he’s on the Jaguars +7 vs. the Texans.

“This is an ugly underdog, with Jacksonville coming off a Monday night debacle,” McKay said, alluding to the 47-10 humbling at Buffalo. “But the Jags are going against a division rival. This should be a good spot, with the jump in the line from +4 to +7.”

Vikings, Seahawks, Steelers have ‘Sub Super Bowl Ceiling’ in Nick’s Tiers

NFL Quick Hitters

Feazel offered his behind-the-counter insights on two other notable games in NFL Week 4 odds:

Seahawks vs. Lions: As mentioned above, this is the Monday night game, with Detroit (2-1 SU and ATS) at home against semi-surprising Seattle (3-0 SU/1-1-1 ATS). “We’ve seen some movement toward the Seahawks,” Feazel said of a spread that opened at Lions -4.5 and touched -5, but midweek is down to -3.5. “But the Lions may be the best team in the NFC, and the defense is adding to that. Aidan Hutchinson is absolutely wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks. I don’t see this going to Lions -3. If anything, it’s gonna go higher. I think sharper bettors really respect this Lions team.”
Vikings vs. Packers:Jordan Love (knee) missed Weeks 2 and 3, though Green Bay won both games. He might be back Sunday, and the Packers are 2.5-point home favorites at Caesars. “If he plays, we could see this go through 3, maybe to 3.5 and 4. The past two weeks, the market was really down on the Packers, and Malik Willis proved the market wrong. Right now, to nobody’s surprise, action is on the Packers, with the expectation that Love is back. We’ll be big Vikings fans and big Sam Darnold fans.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Per usual, the bulk of big-money bets for NFL Week 4 has yet to arrive. But Caesars Sports had a few show up by midweek.

The largest is from a New Jersey customer putting full faith and credit in the New York Giants.

The bettor plopped $30,000 on Giants moneyline +196 vs. the Dallas Cowboys in the Thursday night game. If New York pulls off the upset, the bettor profits $58,800 (total payout $88,800).

Other big early plays at Caesars:

$16,000 Steelers moneyline -125 vs. Colts. Potential profit of $12,000 (total payout $28,000)
$11,000 Commanders +3.5 vs. Cardinals. Potential profit of $10,000 (total payout $21,000)

Let’s finish off with a couple of leftovers from the Week 2 Monday night game:

A DraftKings Sportsbook customer had himself a night when Bengals wideout Ja’Marr Chase scored the first touchdown of the game against the Commanders. A modest $250 turned into $117,262.50.

And at FanDuel Sportsbook, a customer put together a $5 player-prop parlay and got there when the Commanders’ hauled in a late TD pass from Jayden Daniels in Washington’s 38-33 win at Cincinnati.

Those kinds of wins are probably ones you ought to revel in by not betting at all for a few weeks. Or a few months. Or more. Because you may well have used up all your luck for a little while.

Regardless, remember to temper your expectations. Parlays are a bookmaker’s best friend.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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