2024 NFL Week 7 Best Bets: Take 49ers, Eagles to cover

chonprasit

National Football League

Published Oct. 18, 2024 4:57 p.m. ET

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Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Feels like I’m back … kinda.

I nailed two of my three picks last week, but of course, it was the Jets that let me down on Monday Night Football.

Oh well. Let’s get back to our winning ways this week.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, OCT. 20

Seahawks @ Falcons (1 p.m., FOX/FOX Sports App)

First bet I made this week, but I did so anticipating a better injury report than the Seahawks had the last two weeks. And initially, it was good! But here we are late in the week, and potential all-pro CB Tariq Woolen seems unlikely to play, as does No. 2 corner Tre Brown. Toss in backup RT Stone Forsythe trending towards not playing, and Seattle might be at a disadvantage.

The good news is, Atlanta’s pass rush is toothless, ranking 30th in pressure rate. The Falcons are dead last in the NFL in sacks (5). Geno Smith should be able to have a field day from a clean pocket.

Atlanta has played in five one-score games, with the only blowout being over Carolina, but even that was a one-score game in the fourth quarter. The Falcons were -2.5 at home against the Saints and Tampa Bay, but now they’re laying more than that against a Seattle team that came into the season projected to be better than both of those?

The injuries could be a factor, obviously. If Woolen can’t play, Seattle is down to a rookie fifth-round pick at corner against Drake London. Not ideal.

But the bet here is Seattle. Kirk Cousins remains an immobile QB, as 94% of his throws have come from the pocket, and Seattle’s pressure rate is 32%, third-best in the league.

Smith picks apart this soft Atlanta zone, JSN has a big game and Seattle covers.

Sprinkle a little on the money line.

PICK: Seattle (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright

Chiefs @ 49ers (4:25 p.m., FOX/FOX Sports App)

Let’s get the obvious stuff out of the way.

Andy Reid, after a bye week in his career, has been incredible — 27-4! Patrick Mahomes, in his career as an underdog, has been incredible — 11-1-1 ATS.

Now that you’ve heard the trends, you can’t bet against K.C., right?

Well, this problem is that the Chiefs just aren’t a great football team right now. The injuries are mounting. It’s one thing to handle terrible New Orleans at home with guys like Kareem Hunt and JuJu Smith-Schuster contributing big-time.

Good luck with that against the 49ers defense.

And while the Chiefs probably have the best defensive coordinator in the league, and the unit is incredible, they are one of the worst teams defending tight ends. Expect a big game from George Kittle.

One crucial data point in all of my handicapping is on special teams. There is a large gap here that scares me. The 49ers special teams ranks 31st in DVOA; the Chiefs are 14th. K.C. has one of the most reliable kickers in the league in Harrison Butker; the 49ers are down to a third-string kicker who they just elevated from the practice squad. Anders Carlson was with the Packers last year and missed five extra points.

Suboptimal!

Lastly, it’s worth mentioning that this is the same line from the Super Bowl … when K.C. was a much better team. Three of their top 10 players from that game are gone — L’Jarius Sneed (Tennessee), Isaih Pacheco (injured) and Rashee Rice (injrued). The 49ers are missing Christian McCaffrey, and that has hurt them in the red zone, but otherwise, whoever is carrying the ball should have success in this run scheme.

Also, the 49ers are at home, unlike the neutral site Super Bowl.

PICK: 49ers (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points

NFL Week 7 Best Bets: Giants vs. Eagles, Commanders team total

Eagles @ Giants (1 p.m., FOX/FOX Sports App)

This line surprised me, and feels like an overreaction to the Nick Siranni nonsense. Is the coach putting himself in a bad spot talking trash to fans during a win against Cleveland? Of course.

But on the actual football field, the Eagles have dominated the Giants in the last few years. If you remove the Week 18 game last year full of backups, here are the scores:

Eagles 33, Giants 25

Eagles 38, Giants 7

Eagles 22, Giants 16

Eagles 48, Giants 22

Eagles 34, Giants 10

And this is largely involving the same players who will be on the field Sunday.

Yes, the Giants get back star receiver Malik Nabers … but they lose star left tackle Andrew Thomas. It’s always something with the Giants, who put up a spirited fight against Cincinnati before losing (and not covering).

Yes, this is the Saquon Barkley revenge game.

PICK: Eagles (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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