2025 Baseball Hall of Fame candidates: Ichiro unanimous? Sabathia a lock?

Major League Baseball

Updated Jan. 24, 2024 4:06 p.m. ET

With Tuesday’s news that Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Todd Helton are officially headed to the Hall of Fame, it’s not too early to look ahead at the next round of potential Cooperstown invites. And just as this year’s ballot brought a deep batch of superstars headlined by first-ballot inductees Beltre and Mauer, 2025 is shaping up to deliver a similarly exciting group of guaranteed Hall of Famers as well as fantastic yet flawed careers for us to sort through.

As a refresher, players must play at least 10 years in the majors and be five years removed from their final season to be eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot. Each year, a screening committee of BBWAA members selects a group of newly eligible players to be added to the ballot alongside the holdovers from the previous year’s election who earned the necessary 5% support to stay on but not the 75% required for election. Based on Tuesday’s results, we’ll have 14 such holdovers on next year’s ballot (% of vote on 2024 ballot):

– Billy Wagner (73.8%)

– Andruw Jones (61.6%)

– Carlos Beltrán (57.1%)

– Álex Rodríguez (34.8%)

– Manny Ramírez (32.5%)

– Chase Utley (28.8%)

– Omar Vizquel (17.7%)

– Bobby Abreu (14.8%)

– Jimmy Rollins (14.8%)

– Andy Pettitte (13.5%)

– Mark Buehrle (8.3%)

– Francisco Rodríguez (7.8%)

– Torii Hunter (7.3%)

– David Wright (6.2%)

After coming oh-so close this year, Wagner should finally get the call next January in his 10th and final year on the ballot. Jones has three years left on the ballot and is tracking like he will be elected soon. Beltrán saw a significant boost this year to suggest induction next year could be in play, though we’re probably looking at 2026 or 2027 as his likeliest induction class. It might be a year or two beyond that for Utley, who debuted at 28.8%.

But who else will be examined for the 2025 class? The official ballot won’t be unveiled until November, but we have a pretty good idea just by looking at the most accomplished players whose final seasons came in 2019. Baseball-Reference already has a projected ballot with a list of potential newcomers. Using a conservative cutoff of 30 career WAR, let’s look at the most notable — and likely — players to join the ballot a year from now, including two absolute locks for first-ballot induction:

The shoo-ins

Ichiro Suzuki (60 WAR)

Let’s start with a somewhat hilarious reminder: The only reason we aren’t celebrating Ichiro as a Hall of Famer right now is because of the two games he played in Japan with the Mariners to open the 2019 season as the ultimate mini-farewell tour. Those games pushed his ballot debut back an entire year, though I don’t think anyone would change a thing about his epic goodbye at the Tokyo Dome.

There’s no need to overthink this one: Ichiro has a chance to become just the second ever unanimous selection after Mariano Rivera. Maybe a voter or two will look at his measly home run total and his complete lack of postseason experience (which he had very limited control over) and declare him unworthy of the Cooperstown call. I sure hope not. This man racked up 3,089 hits in the majors after collecting 1,278 knocks in Nippon Professional Baseball. He is completely unlike any player we’ve ever seen and might ever see again. A living legend through and through, Ichiro’s career will be a joy to reflect upon and celebrate further in a year’s time.

Ichiro Suzuki gets inducted into the Seattle Mariners HOF

CC Sabathia (62.3 WAR)

Primed to be the first starting pitcher inducted on the writer’s ballot since Roy Halladay and Mike Mussina in 2019, Sabathia should join Halladay as a first-ballot inductee rather comfortably. He could be one of the last starting pitchers to play long enough to reach both 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. Add in his 2007 AL Cy Young, an iconic individual effort with the Brewers post-trade in 2008, and a championship with the Yankees in 2009, and you have an awfully complete résumé. It doesn’t hurt the hulking left-hander that he’s also become one of the game’s most beloved personalities in his post-playing days.

That he also largely lived up to his massive contract that brought him to the Bronx is no small task, either. Some may quibble with a career 3.74 ERA that would be on the high side for Hall of Famers, but Sabathia should still sail into Cooperstown with ease, and deservedly so.

Debates in waiting

Félix Hernández (49.7 WAR)

A full-blown phenom before he stepped on a big-league mound as a teenager, King Félix appeared firmly on a Hall of Fame track over the first decade of his career as the Mariners ace. Consider how Hernández’s twenties compared to Sabathia’s — conveniently, each made exactly 322 starts between their ages 20-29 seasons:

Hernández (2006-2015):

47.2 WAR

2,178 IP

3.13 ERA (127 ERA+)

3.21 FIP

1.178 WHIP

23.1% strikeout rate

6.8% walk rate

Sabathia (2001-2010):

44.2 WAR

2,217 IP

3.57 ERA (123 ERA+)

3.58 FIP

1.228 WHIP

20.3% strikeout rate

7.5% walk rate

Yet, while Sabathia continued to post and rack up counting stats over his Yankees tenure to ensure eventual induction, Hernández did the opposite as he entered his thirties. Nagging injuries mounted, his stuff vanished, and suddenly it was all over in a blink — Hernández was just 33 when he made his final big-league start in 2019.

In turn, he’ll join the seemingly growing list of candidates whose cases are rooted entirely in their spectacular peaks overwhelming their lack of longevity. Andruw Jones’ ongoing push for election is a relatively encouraging example as a hitter parallel; Johan Santana having fallen off the ballot immediately is the opposite. Hernández has a more substantial body of work than Santana and shouldn’t be in danger of a one-and-done, but it’ll still be an uphill battle.

Best of the rest (Infielders)

Ian Kinsler (54.1 WAR)

Dustin Pedroia (51.9 WAR)

Troy Tulowitzki (44.5 WAR)

Hanley Ramírez (38 WAR)

This is a fantastic foursome of players whose careers shined in completely different ways and in vastly different markets. While none compare favorably to the cases for Utley or even Wright, it’s awfully fun to line the six of them up as positional contemporaries and see who has the edge in certain categories. For example, Utley comfortably leads all six infielders in career WAR, but Kinsler leads in hits, Ramírez in homers and steals, Pedroia in average, Wright in on-base percentage and Tulowitzki in slugging. Each was a treat to watch at their best, though Utley remains the only one likely headed for Cooperstown as things stand.

Best of the Rest (Outfielders)

Curtis Granderson (47.2 WAR)

Adam Jones (32.6 WAR)

Jones was beloved in Baltimore for a decade after his infamous trade from Seattle early in his career, but his production tailed off sharply as he entered his thirties, leaving his case nowhere near the standard for serious consideration. Granderson’s counting stats as a center fielder aren’t that far off those of someone like Torii Hunter who managed to garner the necessary 5% to stick on the ballot for another year. But without nearly the standout defensive reputation Hunter had, Granderson’s case falls flat pretty quickly.

Best of the Rest (Infielder/Outfielder)

Ben Zobrist (44.5 WAR)

Zobrist’s unique versatility (794 career starts at second base, 494 in the outfield, 196 at shortstop) and key contributions to the 2016 World Series champion Cubs make him one of the more memorable players from his era despite the relative lack of accolades otherwise. His defense and excellent OBP skills unsurprisingly boost his sabermetric resume substantially, but not enough to consider him a serious candidate.

Best of the Rest (Catchers)

Brian McCann (32 WAR)

Russell Martin (38.8 WAR)

Martin’s superior defensive metrics enable a somewhat surprising edge in career WAR, but McCann’s reputation as one of his generation’s best offensive catchers will earn his candidacy a much closer look, even if he never actually gets elected. He doesn’t have quite the same high-end hardware as contemporaries like Mauer or future Hall of Famer Buster Posey, but McCann made seven All-Star teams (one more than Mauer and equal to Posey) and his 10 (!) seasons with at least 20 home runs are tied with Yogi Berra (!!!) for third all-time among catchers behind Mike Piazza and Johnny Bench (11). McCann’s not a Hall of Famer, but raking to that degree as a catcher always deserves to be celebrated.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He’s a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.