2025 NASCAR lineup projections: Which drivers are landing where?

chonprasit

NASCAR Cup Series

Updated Jul. 3, 2024 12:35 p.m. ET

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Bob Pockrass

FOX NASCAR Insider

With silly season in full swing, here is a team-by-team look at how their 2025 lineups could look.

As talks are ongoing, these projections/outlooks will change and we’ll keep you updated.

Here’s my outlook as of July 3 following the announcement of Josh Berry joining Wood Brothers Racing next season.

Joe Gibbs Racing

11: Denny Hamlin is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected.

19: Chase Briscoe will replace Martin Truex Jr. next year, the team announced Tuesday. Crew chief James Small will remain with the team.

20: Christopher Bell is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected

54: Ty Gibbs is the grandson of the team owner and is expected to have a ride as long as the team has Joe Gibbs in operation. Whether he would ever change to the No. 18 – the signature and original JGR number – probably would be the biggest question. Joe Gibbs indicated there is nothing imminent as far as a number change.

Hendrick Motorsports

5: Kyle Larson is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected.

9: Chase Elliott is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected.

24: William Byron is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected.

48: Alex Bowman is signed through at least next year. While this is the seat most talked about possibly coming open at Hendrick, his recent performance should be enough to keep him in the car. A win, though, would really help quiet the speculation.

Denny Hamlin on expectations for Corey Heim driving the 23XI Racing No. 50 car this week

23XI Racing

23: Bubba Wallace isn’t signed yet for next year but is expected to return.

45: Tyler Reddick is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected.

67(or another number for third car with charter likely acquired from SHR): With the team already having a Monster Energy relationship, adding Riley Herbst and his Monster deal would make sense. Corey Heim is the team’s driver of the future, but he might be a year or two away from being fully Cup ready.

Team Penske

2: Austin Cindric isn’t signed yet for next year but the win earlier this year and making the playoffs probably keeps him in this ride, especially considering there aren’t any “must-have” drivers who are available to take this seat.

12: Ryan Blaney is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected.

22: Joey Logano is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected.

RFK Racing

6: Brad Keselowski is a co-owner and is expected to be back in this car next year.

17: Chris Buescher is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected.

Trackhouse Racing

1: Ross Chastain is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected.

99: Daniel Suarez is in a contract year and has said he feels good about having a deal signed, which is expected.

TBA (charter likely acquired from SHR): Trackhouse has two drivers under contract and one car. It still must decide whether it feels Shane van Gisbergen would be better off with another season in Xfinity. That would leave Zane Smith in that car, but the more likely scenario is van Gisbergen in a Cup car and Smith either looking for a ride while under contract or loaned to another team like he is this year with Spire.

Chase Briscoe reacts to Christopher Bell’s JGR spoiler

Richard Childress Racing

3: Austin Dillon is signed through at least next year. While there is chatter that maybe he could step aside (much like his grandfather Richard Childress did for Dale Earnhardt decades ago), it is far more likely he is back in this car next season.

8: Kyle Busch is signed through at least next year and no changes are expected.

33: The team had flirted with adding a third full-time car for next year but that seems less likely now than a month ago with the news that Gene Haas is keeping one of his charters. If they can obtain a charter, Noah Gragson could be a possibility with his Bass Pro relationship, which already is strong at RCR with the No. 3 car. Austin Hill could also be a possibility, but he seems content to run in Xfinity next season.

Haas Factory Team

TBA: Gene Haas will keep one Stewart-Haas Racing charter and run it as the Haas Factory Team. Haas wanted to have a presence, either as a sponsor and/or a car owner for his various Haas brands. Considering he has continued to sponsor former Cup driver and defending Xfinity champion Cole Custer — and Custer’s father is running the Haas Factory Team — it would stand to reason that Custer is the top candidate.

Front Row Motorsports

34: While a month ago this would seem to have Cole Custer’s name on it as part of the deal with SHR for a charter, that now seems unlikely (see the Haas Factory Team note above). FRM likely will need drivers with some sponsorship. Noah Gragson, Xfinity driver Sam Mayer and truck series driver Christian Eckes are expected candidates. Gragson is a favorite to land one of the open FRM rides. Whether Zane Smith could return to the team where he won a truck championship isn’t the most likely scenario, but also isn’t out of the question.

36 (charter acquired from SHR): Same list of candidates as the 34.

38: Todd Gilliland is signed through at least next season and no changes are expected.

Todd Gilliland discusses unexpected contract extension with Front Row Motorsports

Spire Motorsports

7: Corey LaJoie is signed at least through next season and while he hasn’t had the greatest year, he should return next year.

71: Michael McDowell (currently driving for Front Row Motorsports) signed with Spire through at least next season and joins the team to replace Zane Smith.

77: Carson Hocevar is signed at least through next season. His performance this year has been strong enough to potentially get a look from other teams, but he is expected to stay at Spire for 2025.

Legacy Motor Club

42: John Hunter Nemechek is signed through at least next season and no changes are expected.

43: Erik Jones is not signed yet for next season. The team most likely would like him back but he at least would listen to other offers. If he were to leave, Heim would be a possibility in this car.

JTG Daugherty Racing

47: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is signed at least through next season and no changes are expected.

Rick Ware Racing

15: With multiple drivers (Kaz Grala is the anchor driver), if a driver came with sponsorship, this ride would be a possibility. Preece does have experience driving for RWR, having run two races with the team in 2022.

51: Justin Haley is signed through at least next year. His performance does have other teams talking to him but at least at the moment, he said he will remain at Rick Ware Racing, who has shown the most belief in him the last couple of years.

Kaulig Racing

16: With multiple drivers, this ride would be open to a driver who can bring enough sponsorship to anchor the car. Never rule out an AJ Allmendinger return to Cup as well if Kaulig can find the dollars. This organization and Eckes have flirted with each other previously, so it is likely there will at least be some talks if he continues to run well in trucks.

31: Daniel Hemric is not signed for next season. This ride likely will come down to sponsorship.

Wood Brothers Racing

21: Josh Berry has been announced as the driver of this car for 2025 as the SHR driver will replace Harrison Burton. Burton has some sponsorship that he could bring with him but his 2025 landing spot is unclear with a return to trucks or Xfinity possible.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.