49ers vs. Patriots 2024 Prediction, Odds, Expert Pick

National Football League

Updated Sep. 28, 2024 5:24 p.m. ET

The San Francisco 49ers (1-2) are considered favorites (-10.5) according to the bookmakers ahead of their game against the New England Patriots (1-2) on September 29, 2024, starting at 4:05 p.m. ET, airing on FOX. The matchup has an over/under of 40.5 points.

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49ers vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

49ers vs Patriots Betting Information updated as of September 27, 2024, 2:34 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
49ers	-10.5	-108	-112	40.5	-112	-108

49ers vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Pick Em
Pick OU: Under (40.5)
Prediction: 49ers 25 – Patriots 15

How to Watch San Francisco vs. New England

Game Date: Sunday, September 29, 2024
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Levi’s Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California
TV: Watch on FOX
Live Boxscore:FOX Sports

Pick by FOX Sports Betting Analyst Chris Fallica:

Last week’s loss at the Rams was awful and inexcusable for the Niners, even with all the injuries. To blow a two-TD lead against a team with as many key injuries as the Rams just can’t happen. Fortunately, the Niners get one of the worst teams in the league at home as a get-right spot. The Patriots O-Line against the Jets was downright awful and I can’t see it getting much better here. S.F. gets up early and rolls to a blowout win.

PICK: 49ers (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points

49ers vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

Over their last four meetings, New England has three wins against San Francisco.
San Francisco has been outscored by 29 points in its last four tilts against New England.

San Francisco Betting Info

This year San Francisco has one win against the spread.
San Francisco games this year have eclipsed the over/under two times in three opportunities (66.7%).
When playing as the moneyline favorite, the 49ers are 1-2, earning a victory 33.3% of the time.
Looking at this contest’s moneyline, the 49ers’ implied win probability is 85.7%.

49ers Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	267.7 (803)	1
Rush yards	139.7 (419)	10
Points scored	24.3 (73)	9
Pass yards against	217.7 (653)	20
Rush yards against	104.0 (312)	9
Points allowed	23.0 (69)	21

San Francisco’s Key Players

Offense

Brock Purdy ranks third in the NFL with 842 passing yards in three games this year, averaging 280.7 per game with a 72.6% completion percentage and four touchdowns (10th in the NFL) against one interception.
He has tacked on 64 rushing yards (21.3 per game) without a touchdown on the ground.
Jordan Mason’s rushing statline this season includes 324 yards (second in the NFL) and two TDs. He is averaging 108.0 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt (16th in the NFL).
In the passing game, Jauan Jennings, has racked up 276 receiving yards (fifth in the NFL) and three touchdowns (first in the NFL) after catching 18 balls (10th in the NFL) on 21 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 92.0 yards and 6.0 receptions in three games.
Deebo Samuel has 13 receptions for 164 yards and zero touchdowns. He’s been targeted 19 times in the passing game, and averages 6.5 receptions and 82.0 yards in two games played.

Defense

On the defensive side, Fred Warner has 20 tackles, 1.0 TFL, one sack, and one interception in 2024. His tackle total leads the 49ers.
Nick Bosa has nine tackles, 3.0 TFL, and two sacks.
This season, Isaac Yiadom has put up 13 tackles.
So far this season, Charvarius Ward has 13 tackles.

New England Betting Info

New England has put together a record of 2-1-0 against the spread this season.
Games involving New England has hit the over once this year.
This season, the Patriots have won one out of the three games in which they’ve been the underdog.
The Patriots have a 18.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Patriots Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	102.0 (306)	32
Rush yards	144.3 (433)	8
Points scored	13.0 (39)	31
Pass yards against	244.3 (733)	27
Rush yards against	83.0 (249)	5
Points allowed	19.0 (57)	10

New England’s Key Players

Offense

Rhamondre Stevenson averages 74.7 rushing yards per game this year (224 total yards), while scoring two rushing touchdowns.
Jacoby Brissett has 368 passing yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions. His completion percentage is 60.9% and he averages 122.7 yards per game and 5.3 per attempt.
He has also added 38 rushing yards (third on the Patriots), with zero touchdowns on the ground (averaging 12.7 yards per game and 4.2 per carry).
So far this season through three games, Antonio Gibson has racked up 143 rushing yards (second on the Patriots), but has not scored a rushing touchdown. He averages 47.7 yards per game and 6.2 per attempt (third in the NFL).
Hunter Henry has 12 catches for 136 yards without a receiving touchdown. He averages 4.0 yards per game through three games and has been targeted 18 times.

Defense

Keion White’s 2024 showing includes 17 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and four sacks through three games. He is second on the Patriots in tackles.
Kyle Dugger has 16 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack. He is fourth on the Patriots in tackles.
Jonathan Jones has 18 tackles in the 2024 campaign. He leads the Patriots in tackles.
Jahlani Tavai has 17 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and one pass defended.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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