Are the Bucs legit? Who’s to blame for Jets mess? Is Trevor Lawrence a bust?

chonprasit

National Football League

Published Oct. 2, 2024 4:41 p.m. ET

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As the NFL London Games begin, are we witnessing a Changing of the Guard at the top of the league? In last week’s roundtable, FOX Sports’ NFL experts showed a lot of love for the Vikings as a potential title contender. In Week 5, unbeaten Minnesota, which has trailed for all of three minutes this season, takes on the Jets at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Coming off their 10-9 loss to the Broncos, the Jets are already a cauldron of drama, and our writers offer their takes on who’s to blame for that. Other topics heading into Week 5 include the upstart Bucs‘ staying power, Bears players calling out their new offensive coordinator, Trevor Lawrence’s future in Jacksonville and if any of the nine 1-3 NFL teams still have reasonable postseason chances.

Time to spill the tea.

Buying or selling: Are the Bucs a legitimate NFC contender?

I think their start is legit. They’re the only team to beat two 3-1 teams, and Washington and Detroit have looked strong since losing to the Bucs. And they’ve done it shorthanded, playing mostly without safety Antoine Winfield, defensive lineman Calijah Kancey and tackle Luke Goedeke. They should be relatively healthy by Week 6.

The next two weeks are hugely important as they play their toughest division games. If they win at Atlanta and New Orleans, they’d be at least two games up with the tiebreaker on both. Even a split would put them at 4-2. Now, last year they were also 3-1 and then lost six of seven, but they’ve looked better in this start than a year ago. If they’re even 6-4 going into their Week 11 bye, they get the Panthers twice and the Giants and Raiders in their last seven weeks. — Greg Auman

Selling. Look, I understand it’s easy to buy on Tampa considering the terrific play of Baker Mayfield, who’s pacing for more than 42 touchdowns. But look at the Bucs’ schedule. Three of their next four games are in-division, and they’ll face the Ravens, Chiefs and 49ers — three of last season’s conference finalists — before mid-November. That’s a brutal stretch and, at this point, I’m not confident the Bucs can maintain their momentum through it. — Ben Arthur

Who is more to blame for the Jets’ inconsistencies: Robert Saleh or Aaron Rodgers?

Aaron Rodgers certainly doesn’t think he deserves any blame for the Jets’ mess. And to be fair, he probably doesn’t deserve much. But he hasn’t been great. To be honest, he’s looked like the old Aaron Rodgers only once, a 24-3 win over the Patriots two weeks ago. But the Jets’ problems go way deeper than that, and it mostly falls on head coach Robert Saleh and his staff. For one thing, this is an incredibly undisciplined team. The Jets were flagged for 13 penalties against the Broncos and have had 31 penalties accepted against them in four games. That’s been a staple of the Saleh era.

For another thing, the offensive scheme is all out of whack. They have two really dynamic skill players — receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall. But Rodgers’ hand-picked offensive coordinator, Nathanial Hackett, can’t seem to get either one going. Wilson and Rodgers — the combo that should have carried this Jets offense — seem wildly disconnected. The coaches should have figured that out in August.

The Jets look like a team searching for an identity. On offense, they look like they’re just waiting for Rodgers to bail them out of trouble. And every day, Saleh is looking more and more like what many feared when he got the Jets job — a really good defensive coordinator who isn’t quite ready for the top job. — Ralph Vacchiano

It’s definitely more on Saleh, whose defense hasn’t looked as impressive as last year. And even further to that point, he has yet to get the defensive line going — that’s supposed to be his bread and butter. Beyond that, there is evidence of coaching issues when an offensive line has five false start penalties in a single game, as the Jets did against the Broncos. That’s on Saleh.

Then he made everything worse by initially suggesting he might have Aaron Rodgers use less cadence (which is one of the many ways Rodgers is a weapon). Rodgers pushed back in a press conference. And Saleh backtracked the next day. We see all of this too often with Saleh. He’s a loosey-goosey players’ coach who gives the players more freedom than just about any other coach in the NFL. But there are times when I wonder how much authority he has over his team. — Henry McKenna

Nick Wright breaks down Jets drama between Aaron Rodgers, Robert Saleh

I’ll go with the guy who touches the ball every play on offense. Certainly, Saleh should get a healthy dose of the blame for the overall struggles of the team and its inconsistent performance on a weekly basis. Saleh is 20-35 in four seasons and has never had a winning record. But defense is Saleh’s forte, and the defense is pulling its weight.

The problem is the offense, which Rodgers basically oversees. He picked the offensive coordinator in Nathaniel Hackett and most of the frontline players. He’d reportedly like to add another one in former Packers teammate Davante Adams. But the Jets don’t need peak Rodgers running a stagnant offense based on players winning one-on-one matchups the quarterback likes. Saleh can look to his former employer, the San Francisco 49ers, and how they use Brock Purdy for a winning blueprint on offense, with more pre-snap movement and receivers schemed open. Can Rodgers be Purdy? — Eric D. Williams

Jay Glazer reported that Caleb Williams, Cole Kmet and Marcedes Lewis asked new OC Shane Waldron to be more aggressive coaching the Bears’ offense. Is that a good sign or a bad sign?

Player empowerment can be a useful tool for team building, so I’ll say it’s good that team leaders felt comfortable enough to speak up and address critical issues to the coaching staff. And Chicago’s offense showed signs of life in a Week 4 win over the Los Angeles Rams, particularly with the ability to run the football and create balance on offense. While it’s not a good look for players to go to a coach to ask to be coached harder, if it leads to a better and more consistent performance by the offense, then that’s good for Waldron, Williams and the rest of the team. — Eric D. Williams

Rookie QB Caleb Williams and other Bears reportedly went to new OC Shane Waldron to ask for more aggressive coaching and playcalling. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

I think it’s a great sign. Let’s not forget that Shane Waldron is brand new to Chicago. He doesn’t have the rapport yet with his entire roster. Having veteran leaders (very veteran in the case of Marcedes Lewis) step up means a couple of things: They feel their coaches are approachable enough and amenable enough to do so and that the players themselves are taking accountability. That’s never a bad thing. It sounds like the communication is improving off the field, which should translate on the field as well.

Even with the talent the Bears have on their team, this was always going to take a little bit of time to get going offensively. The players and staff were going to need time to mesh with each other. It’s still early. If we are talking about communication breakdowns in the last quarter of the season, then we can start to worry, but for now it’s good that the players are communicating their needs early so coaches have enough time to adjust.

The Bears don’t start division play until Week 11. They are in the “sweet spot” of their schedule where they can put it all together against some struggling teams (they get the Panthers this week and the Jaguars in London the week after). The game against Washington in Week 8 is shaping up to be a tougher one than we may have thought prior to the season, but there are still some winnable games that can get Chicago into a groove, especially with improving communication behind the scenes. — Carmen Vitali

Will Trevor Lawrence ever become an elite QB in Jacksonville?

I don’t believe so. It’s Year 4 for Lawrence and we’re still asking this question. That doesn’t mean he can’t be very good or show spurts of greatness in the right situation — see the second half of the 2022 season and Jacksonville’s 8-3 start last season — but 54 games into his career, we need to accept that this is who he is. That’s a tough pill to swallow considering his $275 million contract, the Jaguars’ disastrous start to 2024 and the hype that surrounded him coming out of Clemson. At this point, though, his results have to dwarf his perceived upside. — Ben Arthur

It’d be pretty bleak to give up on that prospect one month into Lawrence’s five-year, $275 million contract. This season has been abysmal for Jacksonville, and we have to say definitively that Lawrence’s career has been a disappointment so far. But the guy is just turning 25. I think the Jags are headed toward a total regime overhaul — head coach and general manager. From there, they have to prioritize finding decision-makers who will get the most out of their quarterback. – David Helman

He absolutely can be elite. But it’s probably not going to happen this year. It’s not a good sign that we have to rewind back to 2022 to see when he was on track to become one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Since then, I’m not sure how much his game has ascended. But that doesn’t mean that he can’t get back on track with the right situation. Lawrence seems to miss Evan Engram (who has been hurt) and Calvin Ridley (who left for the Tennessee Titans). And I think that this new, massive contract has led the Jaguars to ask Lawrence what he can do for them rather than what they can do for Lawrence.

That leads to a tough growth curve for a quarterback. QBs are getting paid before they’re ready for a big deal. In turn, they’re getting asked to do more than they’re ready for. That’s what is happening with Lawrence. It’s up to Doug Pederson and the Jaguars to figure out how — from an X’s and O’s standpoint — they can build his confidence. And then it’s really on Lawrence. He was touted as one of the best prospects in the NFL. That was real. So, now, he needs to be honest with himself about why he has not elevated from “elite NFL prospect” to “elite NFL player.” — Henry McKenna

Which if any of the nine one-win teams still have a chance to make the playoffs?

Every year I get a good feeling about the Cincinnati Bengals, and most years I end up feeling a little like Charlie Brown after Lucy pulls away the football. That has happened again this year, when the Bengals — Good Grief! — started 0-3. But like ol’ Chuck, I’m ready to try again. The Bengals are the best 1-3 team in the league, and they started to show some signs of life against a plucky Panthers team last Sunday. Their offense is starting to get going (averaging 25.5 points and 338.3 yards per game). And the dangerous combination of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase is beginning to click now that Chase’s holdout is behind him (mostly).

But this is still a flawed team. The Bengals can’t stop the run and their own running game behind Zack Moss and Chase Brown is weak. They won’t be a championship contender without fixing that. But we’re only talking playoffs here, and in a very top-heavy AFC, 9-8 is probably enough to get the last wild-card spot, which means they just have to go 8-5 the rest of the way. Burrow is good enough to carry them that far. And the schedule — with the Giants, Browns (twice), Raiders, Chargers, Titans and Broncos — isn’t all that rough. The road is harder for most of the other 1-3 teams. And none of them has a quarterback like Burrow to lead them. — Ralph Vacchiano

I would go with the Bengals as well. Remember, 1-3 is one game out of the top wild card in the AFC. One back with 13 weeks to play is nothing. Cincinnati could lose to the Ravens this week and still be a game out of a wild card at 1-4. It’s certainly not the way you want to open a season, but it’s nothing insurmountable. They have a last-place schedule, and facing the Browns twice isn’t the challenge it once seemed. — Greg Auman

I’ll go with the Rams here. Los Angeles made the playoffs last season and has dealt with a rash of injuries to start the year, with foundational players like Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua unavailable. The Rams have one of the best coaches in the NFL in Sean McVay, who led them to the postseason after starting 3-6 last year. And Los Angeles is just two games behind the NFC West leaders in Seattle, with two games left this season against the Seahawks. — Eric D. Williams

The following writers contributed to this story:Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); David Helman (@davidhelman_); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano); Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV)