Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans divisional round: Prediction, odds, picks

National Football League

Published Jan. 17, 2024 11:32 a.m. ET

In the AFC Divisional round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens will meet the Houston Texans. The Ravens are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -9). The game has a total of 44.5 points.

The Ravens enjoyed their first-round bye last week after a sensational season that saw them win six of their last seven games.

Meanwhile, the Texans have surprised the naysayers all season and continued to raise eyebrows in the Wild Card round where they demolished the Cleveland Browns 45-14.

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Texans and Ravens — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill.

Ravens vs. Texans Odds & Betting Lines

Ravens vs Texans Betting Information updated as of January 16, 2024, 12:33 PM ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Ravens	-9	-108	-112	44.5	-102	-118

Ravens vs. Texans Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Baltimore (-9)
Pick OU: Under (44.5)
Prediction: Baltimore 29 – Houston 15

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

I’ve seen this movie before. Everyone falls in love with the team that wins Wild Card weekend, forgetting the team that didn’t play was off for a reason. That reason being they earned a bye because they’re really good.

This line feels a bit inflated. At 9.5, books are trying to discourage teaser money on the Ravens. The way to play this is Texans to score under 17.5 points — an indoor team going outdoors to play in 20 degree temperatures against a hungry, rested defense.

The Ravens should run the ball and control the clock as well.

It’s been a great season for the Texans, but it ends Saturday evening.

PICK: Texans TT Under 17.5

Can CJ Stroud lead the Houston Texans to a DEEP playoff run?

How to Watch Baltimore vs. Houston

Game Date: Saturday, January 20, 2024
Time: 4:30 PM ET
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Location: Baltimore, Maryland
TV: Watch on ESPN

Ravens vs. Texans Recent Matchups

Over their last five meetings, Baltimore has put up four wins versus Houston.
Over their last five head-to-head contests, Baltimore has scored 132 points, while Houston has posted 66.

Baltimore Betting Info

Baltimore has played 17 games, posting 11 wins against the spread.
The Ravens have covered the spread once when favored by 9 points or more this season (in two opportunities).
Baltimore has combined with its opponent to hit the over in 47.1% of its contests this year (eight times over 17 games with a set point total).
The Ravens have won 78.6% of the time they have played as the moneyline favorite (11-3).
Baltimore has played as a moneyline favorite of -425 or shorter in only two games this season, and it won both.
The implied probability for this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Ravens an 81.0% chance to win.

Ravens Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	213.8 (3,635)	21
Rush yards	156.5 (2,661)	1
Points scored	28.4 (483)	4
Pass yards against	191.9 (3,263)	6
Rush yards against	109.4 (1,860)	14
Points allowed	16.5 (280)	1

Baltimore’s Key Players

Offense

Lamar Jackson has 3,678 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He has completed 67.2% of his passes, averaging 229.9 yards per game and 8.0 per attempt.
He has also rushed for 821 yards (first on the Ravens) and added five touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 51.3 rushing yards per game.
Gus Edwards‘ rushing statline this season includes 810 yards and 13 TDs. He’s averaging 47.6 yards per game and 4.1 per attempt (23rd in the NFL).
Edwards’ 13 targets in the passing game have turned into 12 catches (0.7 per game) for 180 yards (10.6 per game) and zero touchdowns.
Zay Flowers has five touchdown catches this season, and has 77 receptions for 858 yards on 108 targets, while averaging 4.8 catches and 53.6 yards per game.
Justice Hill has rushed for 387 yards with three touchdowns (24.2 yards per game through 16 games).
He’s added 28 catches (on 39 targets) for 206 receiving yards with one touchdown. He’s averaging 12.9 receiving yards and 1.8 receptions per game.

Defense

Over on defense, Roquan Smith has 158 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception in 2023. His tackle total leads the Ravens and is sixth in the NFL.
Patrick Queen has 133 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, and one interception this season.
Justin Madubuike has recorded 56 tackles, 12.0 TFL, and 13 sacks this year.
This season, Kyle Hamilton has 81 tackles, 10.0 TFL, three sacks, and four interceptions.

Houston Betting Info

Houston posted a 9-8-0 record against the spread during the regular season. Against the spread in the playoffs, it is 1-0-0.
The Texans have no wins ATS (0-1) as 9-point underdogs or more in the regular season and playoffs.
Out of 17 Houston games in the regular season, six went over the total. As for the postseason, one of one games have exceeded the over.
During the regular season, the Texans won five out of nine games in which they were the underdogs. They are 1-0 in the playoffs.
Houston has played as an underdog of +330 or more in the regular season and playoffs once this season and lost that game.
The Texans have a 23.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Texans Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	245.5 (4,173)	7
Rush yards	96.9 (1,647)	22
Points scored	22.2 (377)	13
Pass yards against	234.1 (3,979)	23
Rush yards against	96.6 (1,643)	6
Points allowed	20.8 (353)	11

Houston’s Key Players

Offense

In 15 games played this year, C.J. Stroud has racked up 4,108 passing yards (eighth-best in the NFL), with 23 touchdowns against five interceptions and completing 63.9% of his attempts.
On the ground, Stroud has added three rushing touchdowns and 167 rushing yards (third on the Texans).
Nico Collins has 1,297 receiving yards (eighth in the NFL) and eight touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) on 80 receptions, while being targeted 109 times.
Devin Singletary is averaging 52.8 rushing yards per game this season (898 total yards), while scoring four rushing touchdowns.
Singletary has helped out in the passing attack, picking up 193 receiving yards (11.4 per game) on 30 catches (1.8 per game), while being targeted 38 times. He is trying for his first receiving touchdown.
Dalton Schultz has been targeted 88 times, resulting in 59 catches for 635 yards .

Defense

In 2023, Jonathan Greenard has 12.5 sacks to go with 15.0 TFL and 52 tackles through 14 games. He ranks 10th in the NFL in sacks.
Blake Cashman has 2.0 sacks to go with 9.0 TFL, 104 tackles, and one interception.
Christian Harris has 2.0 sacks in addition to his 7.0 TFL and 100 tackles.
Jalen Pitre has registered 6.0 TFL and 84 tackles over 14 games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.