Bubble Watch 2024: 10 teams that need a strong finish to make the NCAA Tournament

College Basketball

Updated Feb. 29, 2024 7:25 p.m. ET

College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter

We’ve hit the home stretch of the college basketball regular season, with only 17 days remaining until Selection Sunday.

The sand in the hourglass is waning, but there is still time left for teams to make their final arguments as to why they should hear their names called just over two weeks from today. That being said, the bubble isn’t getting harder. Instead, four teams currently listed on the bubble in Mike DeCourcy’s NCAA Tournament projections – Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Pitt – lost midweek games.

Two other teams on DeCourcy’s 11-line, Providence and Seton Hall, got blown out Wednesday night at Marquette and at Creighton, respectively.

In a world where the selection committee is asking, “Who did you beat?” there aren’t many teams that have really helped their cause this week. Crucial contests lie ahead this weekend.

Here are 10 teams on “bubble watch” this week.

1. Wake Forest (18-10 — NET: 27)

The Demon Deacons were the story of the college basketball world Saturday with their court-storming blunder, but the positive note was that a win over Duke represented the breakthrough that fourth-year head coach Steve Forbes has been looking for. Wake got its first Quad 1 victory, and when packaged with five Quad 2 wins and no bad losses, all appeared well for this program entering the week. Unfortunately for the Demon Deacons, it hasn’t lasted. The momentum was washed away Tuesday night with a loss at Notre Dame, a team that’s currently 134 in the NET and now 11-17 on the year. The loss is currently listed as a Quad 2 defeat, but it could merge into Quad 3 if Notre Dame moves outside the top 135. Saturday brings a must-win road game at Virginia Tech.

2. Villanova (16-12 — NET: 32)

The Wildcats could be the most perplexing team in the country. The NET really likes them, as they hold a 3-8 record against Quad 1 teams and a 6-1 mark against Quad 2. For most teams, that would be more than good enough to be in the field right now. But a trio of Quadrant 3 losses, with an 0-3 record against Penn, Saint Joe’s and Drexel in the Philadelphia Big Five, is why the Cats could miss a second straight NCAA Tournament after not doing so since 2012. Currently listed in DeCourcy’s First Four Out, Villanova has three major Quad 1 opportunities to close the regular season: at Providence on Saturday (FOX), at Seton Hall on Wednesday (FS1) and home to No. 12 Creighton on March 9. This team’s biggest feather in the cap? A neutral site win over a North Carolina team that is threatening for a 1-seed.

3. Ole Miss (19-9 — NET: 77)

There’s simply not enough meat on the bone in Oxford for the Rebels to make the NCAA Tournament at the moment, and their remaining SEC schedule doesn’t exactly provide the chances to move the needle. The team with the lowest NET to ever make the tournament? Rutgers at 77 in 2022. The Rebels are a great high-major test for the committee because their 19 wins look good at surface level, but 15 of them have come against Quad 3 and 4. The Rebels must win their last three regular-season games just to get back on my map for a bid.

4. Providence (18-10 — NET: 56)

The Friars needed to pick up a win on their road swing through Xavier and Marquette. They got that win over the Musketeers. Now, I think they need to go 2-1 in their final three games to cement the bid, or else they will have to reach the Big East Tournament semifinals in order to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. Saturday’s home contest against Villanova at Noon ET on FOX (watch on FOX and the FOX Sports app) cannot be overstated. Then, the Friars visit lowly Georgetown on Tuesday before a FOX Primetime Hoops game against No. 3 UConn on March 9 (watch on FOX and the FOX Sports app). Obviously, if Providence shocked the Huskies, they’d absolutely be in the field. Kim English’s team has a combined eight Quad 1/2 wins and no bad losses.

Devin Carter steals the ball and gets UP to finish off a fast break for Providence against DePaul

5. Texas A&M (15-13 — NET: 59)

Buzz Williams was supposed to have a frontrunner for the SEC title this year. Instead, his Aggies are one of the biggest disappointments in college basketball. I thought that Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor IV would have a big-time year. Instead, the Aggies are 6-9 in the SEC. With five Quad 3 losses, that’s way too large of a red flag. This team should not be in the field. They’ll only be considered by me if they win out (at Georgia, Mississippi State, at Ole Miss).

6. Pitt (18-10 — NET: 49)

The Panthers missed a move-the-needle opportunity against Clemson on Tuesday night, as Jeff Capel’s team fell, 69-62. Their three Quad 1 wins are decent, but they give some of that real estate back with a pair of Quad 2 defeats. A 91-58 blowout loss to Wake Forest recently is something I cannot unsee. Their closing slate: at Boston College, Florida State, NC State. All three non-tournament opponents.

7. Seton Hall (18-10 — NET: 64)

The Pirates own five Quad 1 wins and a 3-2 record versus Quad 2. While they own a home loss to Rutgers and a neutral defeat to USC that is frowned upon, the intent to schedule was there. Here’s the deal: Seton Hall is 11-6 in the Big East. The Pirates are at UConn Sunday, a game nobody expects them to win, before hosting Villanova and a DePaul team that is winless in conference play this season. In the history of the Big East, no team has ever finished five-or-more games above .500 in league play and missed the NCAA Tournament. The Pirates already have wins over UConn and Marquette. If they beat the Wildcats and Blue Demons, they’ll have 20 wins and will be in.

Seton Hall Pirates vs. No. 12 Creighton Blue Jays Highlights

8. Colorado (19-9 — NET: 29)

The Buffaloes have won three straight to get back on the radar, including an 89-65 win over fellow bubble team Utah. They are bubbly because of only one Quadrant 1 win, although a road game at Oregon on March 7 gives them a second opportunity for a Quad 1 victory. If Tad Boyle’s team can win out, they could very well be on the right side of the equation.

9. New Mexico (20-7 — NET: 25)

The Lobos have a great NET ranking, but it’s about so much more than that singular metric. They own three Quad 1 wins, but they took a very bad loss this past weekend to Air Force, who sits in Quad 4. To be safe, I think Richard Pitino’s team needs to win two of its final three games: at Boise State, Fresno State (must win), at Utah State. Those trips to the Broncos and Aggies will be difficult, but getting one would shore up their bid.

10. St. John’s (17-12 – NET: 40)

There are two Pitinos on Bubble Watch. Imagine if the Lobos matched up against the Red Storm in Dayton in the First Four … that would be something! That being said, St. John’s still has a pulse after its third Quadrant 1 win of the season on Wednesday night. The Red Storm blew the doors off Butler, 82-59, behind Glenn Taylor Jr.‘s 17 points and Joel Soriano’s 13-rebound performance. Seven Johnnies scored at least seven points in the victory. So, Rick Pitino’s group has a combined nine Quad 1/2 wins and one weak home loss to Michigan. If they had one more Quad 1 win, I’d say they could be in. Well, they’ll have to get that in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals, presumably against Marquette or Creighton, depending on what seed they are in the conference tournament (March 13-16 on FOX and FS1). The Johnnies should take a five-game winning streak into The Garden with DePaul (March 5, FS1) and Georgetown (March 9, FOX) to close the regular season.

Pitino Chronicles: Rick Pitino speaks on NIL in College Basketball

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on X at @John_Fanta.