Caitlin Clark chasing history: How Iowa star can break all-time scoring record
Caitlin Clark etched her name in the women’s college basketball history books earlier this season when she scored her 3,000th career point. Now, Iowa‘s superstar guard has her sights set on an even bigger record.
Clark, who has put up eye-popping scoring numbers since her freshman season at Iowa in 2020-21, is closing in on Kelsey Plum‘s Division I women’s scoring record. After the Hawkeyes lost their first conference game of the season to the Buckeyes, Clark helped them get a bounce-back win on Jan. 27, scoring 38 points in their win over Nebraska. Clark now has 3,389 career points, trailing Plum’s mark of 3,527 by 138, with several games of her senior season remaining.
Clark does have an extra year of eligibility left due to the 2020 pandemic-shortened season. If she did exercise the option to return to Iowa next season, Clark would almost certainly surpass the former Washington star’s career scoring mark.
But if this is Clark’s last year playing college basketball, she has 16 regular-season games remaining, plus the Big Ten Tournament and likely NCAA Tournament games to reach 3,527 points.
So, let’s take a look at how many points Clark would need to average per game in order to break Plum’s mark and how quickly she can get there (assuming she plays every game).
How many points per game would Clark need to score in order to surpass Plum’s mark by the end of the regular season?
If Clark hopes to break Plum’s record and get it behind her by the time the 2024 Big Ten Tournament starts, she must average 15.4 PPG the rest of the way.
While putting up that many points per game is a tall task for any college basketball player, it isn’t for Clark. She’s scoring 32.0 PPG this season, which is over 5.0 PPG more than the second-leading scorer in Division I. Clark has scored at least 16 points in all of Iowa’s first 21 games this season.
How many points per game would Clark need to score in order to surpass Plum’s mark prior to the NCAA Tournament?
It depends on conference tournament seeding.
Iowa currently is at the top of the Big Ten standings. If it earns one of the top four seeds going into the conference tournament — almost a lock — and makes it to the finals, Clark would need to average 11.6 PPG to break Plum’s mark.
If Iowa were a top-four seed and knocked out in the semifinals, Clark would need to average 12.6 PPG in order to break Plum’s mark prior to the NCAA Tournament. If Iowa lost in the quarterfinals, Clark would need to average 13.7 PPG to break Plum’s mark.
Iowa could technically play four games in the Big Ten Tournament. If that were to happen, Clark would need to score 10.7 PPG to break Plum’s mark prior to the Big Dance. But it’s highly unlikely that Iowa wouldn’t finish in the top eight of the Big Ten regular-season standings. Iowa has finished in the top five of the conference’s regular-season standings in each season since Clark arrived in 2020-21.
Beyond the Big Ten Tournament, it’s obviously unclear how long Iowa’s season will last. The Hawkeyes made the title game last season, losing to LSU. If Iowa made it to the Big Ten Tournament title game (as a top-four seed) and the NCAA title game, Clark would only need to average 7.7 PPG to break Plum’s career mark.
Suffice to say, barring an injury or any unforeseen circumstances, Clark is on pace to break Plum’s record, which leads us to our next question.
When will Clark break Plum’s record?
Clark appears to be on track to break Plum’s record by the middle of February, if not sooner.
If she keeps at her current pace of 32.0 PPG this season, Clark would break Plum’s record at some point during Iowa’s game at Nebraska on Feb. 11, doing it with three games to spare in the regular season. If she scores at her career pace of 28.0 PPG for the rest of the season, Clark would break Plum’s mark by that game against Nebraska, with five regular-season games to spare.
Iowa doesn’t have any long stretches of playing at home or on the road during conference play. The Hawkeyes alternate playing on the road and at home in each of their final eight games of the season. Iowa closes out the regular season at home against Ohio State on March 3 (1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app).
How much longer until Clark cracks the top three and other historic scoring marks?
As Iowa ramps up its conference slate, Clark sits in fourth place on the all-time Division I women’s college basketball scoring list with 3,389 career points. She, by far, has the most points among all active college basketball players as well, so there isn’t a threat of anyone catching up with her.
Clark trails Jackie Stiles by just four points for the third-most points in Division I women’s college basketball history, a mark she can pass as soon as her next game. She only needs to score just 13 more points to tie Ohio State star Kelsey Mitchell for the second-most points of all time, which is also the Big Ten record for points at 3,402.
Charting Clark’s path and Iowa’s schedule for the rest of the regular season
Iowa has 10 regular-season games remaining with all of them coming in conference play. Clark has averaged 28.2 PPG in conference play over her career and has averaged 33.7 PPG against Big Ten opponents so far this season.
Here’s a look at Iowa’s remaining schedule, plus how many points per game Clark averages against each team and how many points per game she needs to score in order to break Plum’s record.
Jan. 31: at Northwestern — 21.3 PPG vs. Northwestern in her career.
Feb. 3: at Maryland — 26.0 PPG vs. Maryland in her career (8 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app).
Feb. 8: Penn State — 25.5 PPG vs. Penn State in her career.
Feb. 11: at Nebraska — 34.8 PPG vs. Nebraska in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 34.5 PPG in the next four games (1 p.m. ET on FS1 and the FOX Sports app).
Feb. 15: Michigan — 34.8 PPG vs. Michigan in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 27.6 PPG in the next five games.
Feb. 22: at Indiana — 28.3 PPG vs. Indiana in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 23 PPG in the next six games.
Feb. 25: Illinois — 23.7 PPG vs. Illinois in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 19.8 PPG in the next seven games (1 p.m. ET on FS1 and the FOX Sports app).
Feb. 28: at Minnesota — 32.2 PPG vs. Minnesota in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 17.3 PPG in the next eight games.
March 3: Ohio State — 31.6 PPG vs. Ohio State in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 15.4 PPG in the next 10 games (1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app).
Wait, isn’t Clark one of the nation’s top passers as well?
Indeed, she is! Clark’s 7.6 assists per game this season is the second-best mark in women’s college basketball. Yet, it’s also her fewest per game since her freshman season, posting at least eight assists per game in each of the last two years.
Entering the back half of conference play, Clark’s 958 career assists rank eighth all-time among Division I women’s players. Suzie McConnell’s record of 1,307 assists is likely out of reach for Clark, but if she continues her season pace of 7.6 assists per game or puts up her career pace (7.9) for the rest of the regular season, she’ll be sixth all-time in assists by the start of the Big Ten Tournament, approaching 1,030 career assists.
At the pace she’s at, Clark would be the first player in women’s college basketball history to rank in the top six all–time in points and assists. She would also be 59 assists away from entering the top five and 62 assists away from entering the top four if she averages her career assists per game mark for the rest of the regular season.
Women’s College Basketball
Iowa Hawkeyes
Caitlin Clark
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