Can Chiefs win out? Impact of Christian McCaffrey’s return; Deadline winners, losers
On Sunday, we’re expecting to see something we haven’t seen all season: Christian McCaffrey line up in the backfield for the San Francisco 49ers. McCaffrey missed the season’s first half with Achilles tendinitis, and his return could be more consequential than any deadline deal addition.
In this week’s roundtable, FOX Sports’ NFL experts gauge McCaffrey’s impact and pick trade deadline winners and losers. In addition, we delve into Eagles coach Nick Siranni’s curious in-game strategy, Sam Darnold’s ceiling and whether the Chiefs will ever lose a game this season.
Let’s get started.
Would a healthy Christian McCaffrey make the 49ers the scariest team in the NFC?
The scariest? Not right away. That’s still the Lions. Not even McCaffrey can instantly fix all the 49ers’ ills. They’ll need Deebo Samuel (rib/oblique) to get healthier. They’ll need Ricky Pearsall and/or Jauan Jennings to help pick up the slack that Brandon Aiyuk left behind. The offensive line can play better. And it’s not like the run game has slouched all that much. Last week against Dallas, the 49ers rushed for 223 yards and 6.2 yards per carry. But of course, McCaffrey brings an element to the passing game that the current RBs cannot. For example, Isaac Guerendo had three catches for 17 yards and was the top running back in both categories against the Cowboys. Against the Chiefs in Week 7, Jordan Mason led Niners running backs with two catches for 11 yards. So there’s upside there.
McCaffrey will make life easier for Brock Purdy, but Kyle Shanahan has bigger problems than running back. For example, the San Francisco defense is allowing 22.8 points per game (16th best) compared to the Lions at 18.5 (sixth fewest). —Henry McKenna
The addition of McCaffrey makes San Francisco the scariest team in the NFC because they would be the most dangerous road team in the postseason. At 4-4, San Francisco is a half-game out of the top spot in the NFC West and likely will not earn the No. 1 seed in the conference. That means a team like the Detroit Lions or Washington Commanders could be facing a seasoned playoff team with a Super Bowl pedigree in their first postseason contest, putting an immense amount of pressure on them. Of course, San Francisco must win some games to make that happen. But the addition of McCaffrey makes the passing game more explosive and the running game even more dangerous. And his return should give San Francisco’s defense more confidence. — Eric D. Williams
Can the Vikings keep winning with Sam Darnold or are his flaws being exposed as the season progresses?
I can’t in good faith say that Darnold’s “flaws” are being exposed when he’s had injuries along the offensive line and has played some pretty tough competition. Does he have limitations? Sure. But the Vikings got tight end T.J. Hockenson back to add to the offensive talent around Darnold. They have the best receiver in football in Justin Jefferson and a great WR2 in Jordan Addison. They shored up the left side of the line after Christian Darrisaw went out for the season by acquiring Cam Robinson via trade. Their offensive playcaller is more than capable of continuing to evolve and is a real-deal Coach of the Year candidate. On top of that, the defense is also capable of adapting and has been excellent all season, even when they get “figured out” by long-tenured quarterbacks and playcallers like Ben Johnson and Jared Goff or Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford.
I don’t think Darnold’s development is fleeting, either, especially in Kevin O’Connell’s system that gives the QB the answers to every problem. Darnold is gaining invaluable experience and learning how to diagnose defenses and make decisions. This isn’t a dumbed-down offense and Darnold is captaining it beautifully. Minnesota is one of only two teams in the league that has scored at least 20 points in all of its games this season. The other team? The Baltimore Ravens. The Vikings are resilient, too. Their loss to the Detroit Lions was a toss-up.
When are we going to allow for the fact that Darnold is a damn good quarterback who just needed the right situation to get going? Besides, the Vikings are so much more than Darnold and have built up a sustainable way of winning games. The only thing that may stop them is being in the toughest division in football where they have to play so many of those toss-up games. — Carmen Vitali
Is it fair to say that both things are true? Darnold’s flaws are there. He’s a limited quarterback who relies upon the system and star players to get W’s. And so he’s more likely than not to let opponents hang around in games. In the case of Minnesota’s losses to the Lions and Rams, Darnold left the door open for his opposing quarterback to steal the win. And we’ve seen that in the Vikings’ wins, too. Darnold won’t (and maybe can’t) slam the door shut — look at their 31-29 win over the Packers.
So it’s on the defense to finish games. If the Vikings are going to win in the postseason, they will need to do so behind the fearsome defensive front that beat up the likes of C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy and Jordan Love. That’s a lot of pressure on defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who had a remarkable first five weeks. At this point, we can see pretty plainly what Darnold is on the Vikings. He’s Jimmy Garoppolo when the 49ers went to Super Bowl LIV. But without a game-wrecking, clutch defense, the Vikings and Darnold are in trouble. I have faith in Flores and the Minnesota front seven. By extension, I have faith in Darnold and the Vikings. —Henry McKenna
The Vikings absolutely can keep winning with Sam Darnold at quarterback — but only to a point. They’re good enough with him to beat a lot of teams, and play very competitive football against the better ones. They might even be able to make the playoffs. But if you’re expecting them to make a Super Bowl run with Darnold, that’s where the flaws come in.
What we’ve seen the past few weeks isn’t much different than what we saw during their 5-0 run, to be honest. He’s not going to carry the Vikings offense. But with players like Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones and T.J. Hockenson around him, things can work. He does still make too many mistakes (two interceptions last week and seven on the season). He can have stretches of bad football, and he’s far more of a game manager than a big-play quarterback.
But that’s OK thanks to the weapons he has at his disposal. And Kevin O’Connell is a smart offensive coach who knows how to make sure Darnold is in good positions where he can mostly stay out of trouble and not knock their season completely off track. — Ralph Vacchiano
Buying or selling: The Chiefs will go undefeated this season.
Buying(!). The Chiefs certainly have a favorable schedule. They have four AFC West games left, but in-division showdowns have been a piece of cake for them in the Patrick Mahomes era (32-5). Of the other five games, the most daunting matchups are at the Bills (Week 11), against the Texans (Week 16) and at the Steelers (Week 17). But Houston has looked vulnerable, and the Steelers haven’t faced a playoff-caliber opponent since Russell Wilson took over as QB1.
Obviously, there’s a reason why no team has gone undefeated in the regular season since the 2007 Patriots. The NFL is a true week-to-week league and injuries can alter the trajectory of a season in the blink of an eye. But Kansas City should only get healthier and DeAndre Hopkins will grow more acclimated into the offense. This is a hard team to bet against. —Ben Arthur
I’m selling. No disrespect intended. Great team, worthy of all the early November adulation they’re getting. But six of their eight wins have been by one score, which is a perilous way to go undefeated, and they still have to go to Buffalo and Pittsburgh. The loss can come to an ordinary team, like when the Eagles were 8-0 two years ago and took their first loss to a 5-5 Washington team that finished last in its division.
It’s fun to talk about a team going 17-0, but at this point, it’s like a no-hit advisory after five innings. Most of the time, you’re not even finishing with a shutout. Kansas City has an experienced, immensely talented team with a real shot at the first three-peat in NFL history. And that, while completely unprecedented, is still much more likely than them going 17-0. —Greg Auman
I’m selling. While finishing the regular-season undefeated would be great, I believe the main prize for the Chiefs is becoming the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls. In years past when Kansas City had clinched the No. 1 seed and had nothing to play for, coach Andy Reid played his reserves and sat the starters, essentially playing a junior varsity game. Unless frontline players like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are clamoring to chase an undefeated season, I expect Reid to handle it the same way. — Eric D. Williams
Is Nick Sirianni’s game management an issue for the Eagles or is he just following the analytical playbook?
Yes, it’s an issue! He’s not alone, of course. The coaching bible for this current generation of coaches seems to be an analytics book that sometimes I’m not sure they completely understand. Football isn’t played on a computer, but modern coaches act like it is.
Last Sunday, Sirianni passed up two easy field goals to go for it (and fail) on fourth down against the Jaguars and went for two-point conversions (and failed) three times. In other words, he gave away nine points, which is why a 22-0 lead turned into a narrow win. Passing up points just because of an equation makes no sense, especially when a team has a big lead.
Again, Sirianni is not alone in this. It’s the modern way of coaching. They rely more on a math whiz than their own instincts. That makes football a lot harder than it needs to be, and it’s going to hurt the Eagles in the end. — Ralph Vacchiano
Think about the Lions. Dan Campell got love for all his aggressive decision-making until that same decision-making style bumped him from the playoffs. Analytics are a great tool. They’ve helped a lot of teams and a lot of coaches eke out wins. And, frankly, these conversion attempts (fourth down and 2-points) have made for more exciting games.
But I’m not sure Nick Sirianni is a fair comparison to Campbell, who seems to have love and support within his locker room. So when Sirianni relies on analytics and fails, he draws the same criticism for it. And it’s probably undue in the grand scheme. But beyond the analytics, Sirianni seems to be actively losing the respect of his players in the locker room. Former NFL player Chris Long (who played for the Eagles but not under Sirianni) spoke on his podcast “The Green Light” about how he felt seeing Sirianni talking trash to Eagles fans after the team’s win over the Browns.
“Act like a head coach. … I’m not saying he’s a clown, but that’s clown behavior,” Long said. “Your job is to be the thermostat — not the thermometer. Be the guy that sets the temperature in the building.”
That helps explain why Sirianni’s decisions against the Jaguars looked like overkill. He looks like the thermometer, not the thermostat.
So then there’s the question of buy-in. Do his players trust him when he makes these brash decisions? And when they don’t work initially, does he keep losing buy-in? Does he have Jalen Hurts‘ buy-in for these big moments? I’m not sure.
These decisions might not be working out because there are greater coaching issues at play. It’s sort of irrelevant that the analytics are involved. What matters is that Sirianni is involved. And the conversation around him is deeply skeptical inside and outside the Eagles’ organization. —Henry McKenna
Now that firing season has kicked into second gear, who should follow Dennis Allen on the chopping block?
It’s a little hard to believe he hasn’t already been fired, but Jaguars coach Doug Pederson has to be the next one on the list. That team is one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments and the Jags are wasting a lot of good, young talent. They are 2-7 right now so their season is over. Even worse, they’re 3-12 since they entered last December with an 8-3 record.
The dramatic free fall since then is alarming, and the regression of a lot of key players is real. And while in-season coaching changes rarely work out, sometimes there’s just no choice. The Jaguars even have a good spot in the schedule to do it — the bye week, which is three weeks away. Before then, they play the Vikings and Lions, so they should be 2-9 and more than ready to move on. — Ralph Vacchiano
Pederson is the easy answer, for all the reasons Ralph listed above. One of the most bizarre things to me about the Jaguars is that a lot of their losses look the same — they’ll have a dreadful start and then mount a comeback only to fall short in the end. The team’s willingness to fight may speak more about individual pride than belief in Pederson, whose messages clearly fall flat with the team. Having the same issues show up over and over again speaks to a problem with coaching and leadership. Owner Shad Khan needs a new voice on the sideline — and in the front office, too. General manager Trent Baalke could be gone after the season as well. —Ben Arthur
Which teams helped and hurt themselves the most at the trade deadline?
Helped? I’ll take the Chiefs over the Steelers. DeAndre Hopkins showed Monday night that he can still be a game-changer, catching two touchdown passes from Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City is down four receivers right now, so it was a smart, inexpensive upgrade. And edge rusher Josh Uche is a depth piece, but it insulates them against an injury in the next two months, and he could still get five sacks in a half-season of rotational work. They have a chance to make history with a three-peat, so it’s only right to part with a pick or two to maximize that opportunity.
Hurt? Why did Dallas give up a fourth-round pick for Panthers receiver Jonathan Mingo? I get that they’re paying their stars so much that they need inexpensive contracts, but why Mingo? Since the start of the 2023 season, 81 NFL players have 100 or more targets and one — only one — has caught fewer than half of those passes. Yes, it’s Mingo. Who were the Cowboys bidding against here? Talk about buying low: In his past three games, Mingo has five targets with one catch for one yard. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong, but this feels like they gave away a pick. —Greg Auman
Omar Kahn and Mike Tomlin operated so smartly for the Steelers at this trade deadline. It was the exact type of stuff you should want to see from your team. No, neither move was seismic. Mike Williams and Preston Smith had been playing negligible roles with their previous teams, and it’s fair to point out that they’re both on the wrong side of 30. But moving to Pittsburgh should help both of them — and in turn help the Steelers. Smith can bring some extra juice to a Pittsburgh pass rush that’s already loaded, and Williams’ style complements Russell Wilson perfectly.
I don’t know how much they hurt themselves, because their season looks over anyway, but I just don’t get what the Cowboys are doing. A fourth-round pick is a steep price for Jonathan Mingo, who has now played 24 NFL games without flashing much of the talent that made him a top-40 pick in 2023. Club officials will point to the fact that they now have Mingo under contract for 2025 and 2026, but will that matter if he doesn’t raise his game? And keep in mind, the Cowboys have drafted exceptionally in the fourth round in recent years. Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, Tyler Biadasz, Dorance Armstrong, Dalton Schultz and Jake Ferguson were all fourth-round picks in Dallas. This might not hurt the Cowboys in the current season, but it may hinder their efforts to reload the roster next year, unless Mingo delivers on his talent in a big way. —Dave Helman
I like Detroit trading for Cleveland Browns edge rusher Za’Darius Smith. While he’s not as productive as Aidan Hutchinson, who’s out for the remainder of the season with a broken leg, the Lions address an obvious need with Smith, who is familiar with NFC North teams from his time in Green Bay. The pickup also shows Detroit players that the franchise is willing to do what it takes to chase a Super Bowl.
On the other side, while I understand the Chargers are in Year 1 of a rebuilding effort under Jim Harbaugh, the Bolts missed an opportunity to provide another playmaker for Justin Herbert. Adding a receiver via trade would have helped them compete in the postseason. — Eric D. Williams
The following writers contributed to this story:Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); David Helman (@davidhelman_); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano); Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams).
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