Chiefs, Lions showing cracks? Worse outlook: Jets or Giants? Hope for Caleb Williams?
This week’s NFL slate features three games between teams with seven wins or more, the most such matchups in Week 11 in league history. That includes the Chiefs, who have nine wins, against the Bills, who have eight. Could this be the week when the NFL’s last undefeated team goes down?
In this week’s roundtable, FOX Sports’ NFL experts explore whether opponents are starting to figure out the Chiefs and Lions, the best teams in each conference. We also look at a pair of the NFL’s most disappointing teams — New York’s Jets and Giants — and decide who’s immediate future is more dire. We delve into if there’s hope for young QBs Caleb Williams and Bryce Young, if the Texans are overrated and if there’s an underrated team flying under the radar.
Let’s get started.
Will a midseason change in offensive coordinators help or hurt Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams?
Famous last words, but I’m not sure it can hurt right now. Williams is already among the most-sacked quarterbacks in the league. He is clearly overthinking in the pocket. Whatever progress was made before the Bears’ bye week seems to have vanished. There’s no rhythm to this offense, nor is it utilizing its players correctly. It’s hard to think it can get much worse.
On the flip side, it could maybe get better. New OC Thomas Brown is working within the constraints of the same offense, but perhaps his playcalling can improve over Shane Waldron’s. There is room for more creativity in the offense, too. Brown will have to be very intentional in what he pulls out of the existing playbook each week for the game plan. Something very indicative of a scheme that stems from the Sean McVay tree is using the same personnel groupings but infusing a lot of motion to make it look different and less predictable. Under Waldron, Chicago utilized 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) at the 11th-highest rate in the league. Yet the Bears have the third-fewest motion snaps. In contrast, McVay and the Rams have the most. Perhaps that’s one way we could see Brown get creative. — Carmen Vitali
It’s never great to pull the scheme out from under a rookie QB. These are the types of situations we examine in three or four years and say: “Well, yeah, the kid is a bust, but he had four coordinators since entering the NFL, so what did we expect?” It’s not great that Chicago hired Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator in the first place.
But all that said, it was also the right move to fire him. Williams has been getting worse over the course of the season, and the Bears needed to stop that alarming trend. I don’t think we’ll truly see Williams turn things around until 2025, when he’ll have a year to work in a new system. This year is more about survival for Williams. That’s not what the Bears had in mind when they invested in their skill players this offseason in hopes of accelerating their rebuild. But that’s the reality. Chicago won’t complete its rebuild without hiring the right offensive mind. That might be the most important coordinator hire of the coming offseason. —Henry McKenna
While unfair, the departure of Shane Waldron as the team’s offensive coordinator will help Williams because it will improve the overall morale and confidence of the players on the offensive side of the football. According to reports, the players did not believe Waldron held players accountable or made the correct in-game adjustments. With Waldron scapegoated, there are no more excuses and the players will be held accountable more fully for what happens on the field. Hopefully, that leads to the offense getting on the same page under the leadership of new coordinator Thomas Brown. Also, expect the Bears to run the football more under Brown, a former running back. — Eric D. Williams
Have opponents started to find cracks in the armor of the Chiefs and Lions?
It’s hard for teams to dominate for an entire season, and the Chiefs and Lions are not immune to that fact. Both won games they probably should have lost last week, and at some point someone is going to beat the Chiefs. Seven of Kansas City’s nine wins have been by seven points or fewer, while Detroit has won by an average of 17 points per game. If you’re the Chiefs or the Lions, you hope the one time that you stub your toe isn’t in the postseason. As former Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch once said: “I know I’m going to get got. But I’m gonna get mine more than I get got though.” — Eric D. Williams
I think both teams have had cracks all along, but they’ve been good at overcoming them. The Chiefs have done an amazing job of surviving unscathed, and the Lions’ lone loss came when they had a nightmare red-zone offensive day against the Bucs. Last Sunday, Detroit overcame Jared Goff throwing five picks. The Chiefs are getting healthier on offense, and that means they’re more likely to score 30 points and take some of the burden off their defense. Detroit’s defense in high-pressure situations — third down and red zone — is elite, but if the Lions lost some of that, their defense would be a question mark. Turnovers remain a concern for the Chiefs, but it’s something they’ve been able to overcome in each of the past two seasons on their way to championships. —Greg Auman
Which team faces a longer road back to relevancy: the Giants or the Jets?
Heading into this season, I probably would have said the Giants. The Jets had more talent pretty much everywhere and seemed to have a short window to make a real run at a Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. But clearly, he’s almost done, and now the Jets are facing an incredibly uncertain future. They’ve already fired their coach. It’s a pretty good bet they’ll fire their GM at the end of the season. And unless Woody Johnson does something crazy — don’t rule that out by the way — they’re going to have to find a new QB because they can’t go into 2025 with a 41-year-old quarterback who is injury-prone and a shell of himself.
In other words, the Jets are about to start over.
The Giants are not completely starting over. They will almost certainly have a new QB next season, and that might cause a step back, but GM Joe Schoen has added a lot of talent in recent years. They have a strong pass rush, a No. 1 receiver, a better (but not great) offensive line. And they seem likely to bring back Brian Daboll so they won’t be starting over in a new system. The Giants have a shot to be a playoff contender in 2025 if they find the right quarterback in the draft. If not, they’re on track for 2026.
The Jets are looking at a total rebuild. It’s hard to imagine them being competitive at all for another three years. — Ralph Vacchiano
The Jets’ primary problem is that they’re financially invested in winning over the next two years with Aaron Rodgers. The problems start to pile up from there. Rodgers isn’t good. The roster they built for him isn’t playing well. This vision looked so good on paper, but it has been a disaster on the field.
That only casts additional uncertainty about where to go from here. The Jets need to hire a head coach. Might they consider adding a coach who fits the long-term plan? Even if that coach isn’t a perfect fit for Rodgers? And might that make for another poor season from Rodgers? Or is Rodgers doomed in 2025, no matter the coach? And what if Rodgers wants a trade? And what if Rodgers retires?
You see where I’m going. All the Jets have are questions.
They can talk themselves into retaining Rodgers and hiring a new coach to see whether they can do something different with the same roster. That’s a foolhardy plan, but I wouldn’t blame them. It’s just that Rodgers is probably going to leave the entire NFL (the Jets included) wondering all summer whether he’ll play in 2025. Don’t be surprised if he’s cryptic until after the 2025 draft, when the Jets will probably want to take a QB in the top 10, if that’s where they land in the draft order. And heck, don’t be surprised if he demands a trade after the draft — leaving the Jets without a QB.
So yeah, by comparison, the Giants are fine. We don’t even have to get into the details. Suffice it to say, there’s no team in the entire NFL with a worse situation than the Jets. —Henry McKenna
After Bryce Young’s first two-game winning streak and incremental progress, is there still hope for him to become a franchise quarterback?
I don’t see it. Yes, the Panthers are 2-3 with Young as the starting QB this year, but that’s really not because of him. He threw for 126 yards on 25 attempts Sunday. The best thing you can say is that he avoided turnovers. The absence of consistent play-making can be seen throughout his 21 games as a starter, which includes just four wins and only one game with even 250 passing yards. Carolina cannot go into next year with Young as the uncontested starter. If that means a half-measure like taking a quarterback in the second round or signing a middling veteran, that’s fine, but they can’t place all their hope in a young player who hasn’t done much to merit it. —Greg Auman
A reclamation of Young’s career is still possible, but I think it will have to take place on another team. Much like Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold had to go elsewhere to learn under experienced offensive coaches like Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan, along with watching experienced signal-callers go through their daily regimen, Young would benefit from a change of scenery to grow as a player and person. — Eric D. Williams
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Are the Texans overrated or just experiencing growing pains?
I think the Texans are still a dangerous team and a postseason threat. They’ve lost three of four, but two were by a combined five points, to the Packers and Lions. Their next four are the Cowboys, Titans, Jaguars and Dolphins, which should set them up to be at least 9-5 if not 10-4 when they go to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs on Dec. 21. Getting Nico Collins back healthy will be huge for C.J. Stroud. Giving up 35 sacks is something they need to address, but they’ll easily win their division and will line up well for a playoff opener against the Ravens or Chargers. Joe Mixon can be a difference-maker in the playoffs. —Greg Auman
C.J. Stroud has not done enough for this team. He isn’t the guy we saw last year. And that’s OK, because he’s just in his second year and he’s dealt with an unfair set of injuries to Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. But Stroud got overhyped. We can say it. It happens. It doesn’t mean he’s bad. But his supposed arrival as an elite quarterback has actually yet to happen. And because of that, the Texans are overrated. I’d be willing to bet that Collins’ return will change the complexion of this offense. The Texans haven’t been the same without him. But as Greg noted, the team’s 35 sacks indicate there’s more dragging Stroud down than a lack of a WR1. The AFC has so many talented QBs. It has so many stocked rosters. The Texans will absolutely make the playoffs, but they’ll need to learn how to finish games — and slam the door shut in the fourth quarter — before I have any faith in them as contenders. That’ll start with Stroud. —Henry McKenna
It’s a bit of both. The Texans are expected to be back in the playoffs — they’re in first place in a bad division — but they’re closer to good than great. Houston is 1-3 against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today (beat the Bills; lost to the Vikings, Packers and Lions). The offensive line has been a problem. Many of the same issues have shown up all season, including execution and second-half offensive woes. Great teams are better at course correction.
At the same time, C.J. Stroud appears to be in a bit of a sophomore slump (though he’s far from being the problem). Nico Collins’ absence the past five weeks hasn’t helped either. With him expected back soon to help Stroud and the rest of the offense, the Texans could be a much more dominant team in December and January — even if they still don’t live up to what they were hyped to be. —Ben Arthur
Is there an underrated team you think will emerge down the stretch? Who is it and why?
I’m going to say the Rams. I know they just had a bad loss to a struggling Dolphins team, but their overall trajectory is very positive. They won three straight entering that game. Los Angeles has a promising young defense, led by rookie stud Jared Verse, and has been getting healthier over the past several weeks, including the return of receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua as well as offensive linemen Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila. The Rams face two three-win teams in the next three weeks (the Patriots in Week 11, the Saints in Week 13), so they can get back on track quickly in a competitive NFC West. —Ben Arthur
I’m not sure how underrated the Arizona Cardinals are considering they’re 6-4 and lead the NFC West, but the sense I get is that most of the attention in that division is on the 49ers, especially now that Christian McCaffrey is back. But I think people are sleeping a little on how good the Cards actually are, which has a lot to do with their 1-3 start.
They’ve gone 5-1 since then and have beaten some strong teams (49ers, Chargers, Dolphins) and pummeled the teams they should pummel (Bears, Jets). Kyler Murray is still a bit erratic, but starting to show flashes of his old, top form. They’ve got one of the NFL’s best run games behind James Conner and a legit receiver threat with rookie Marvin Harrison Jr.
Their defense might cause them problems eventually, but look at their schedule after their bye week: They play the Seahawks (twice), Vikings, Patriots, Panthers and Rams before they end at home against the 49ers. There are a lot of potential wins in there. They could be really dangerous if they’re allowed to get on a roll. — Ralph Vacchiano
The following writers contributed to this story:Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano); Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams).
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