College football Week 6 preview: Penn State vs. UCLA — trap game for Nittany Lions?

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College Football

Updated Oct. 2, 2024 6:24 p.m. ET

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Laken Litman

College Football & Soccer Analyst

RJ Young

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

“Big Noon Kickoff” heads to Penn State this weekend as the No. 7-ranked Nittany Lions, fresh off a victory over Illinois, take on UCLA at Beaver Stadium (Noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App).

James Franklin’s team is off to an impressive 4-0 start this season, relying on a balanced attack behind junior QB Drew Allar and the one-two rushing punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. On the defensive side of the ball, the Nittany Lions are holding opposing teams to just 11.5 points and 226.5 yards per game, both of which rank second in the Big Ten through five weeks of the season.

On the other side, UCLA has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball in DeShaun Foster’s first year at the helm. The Bruins sit at 1-3 overall and rank last in the Big Ten in total offense, and 17th in the 18-team Big Ten in total defense.

There are several other eye-catching matchups across the country in Week 6, including Michigan traveling to Washington to take on the Huskies in a rematch of last year’s national championship game. Meanwhile, Dillon Gabriel and No. 6 Oregon get set to host Michigan State in a primetime Friday night matchup on FOX.

FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman, Michael Cohen and RJ Young are here to preview the biggest storylines heading into Week 6.

Penn State is one of five remaining unbeaten teams in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions are set to take on UCLA this weekend before a massive three-game stretch: at No. 11 USC, at Wisconsin, home against Ohio State. What do you expect to see in this weekend’s matchup, and could this serve as a potential trap game for James Franklin’s team?

Laken Litman: Penn State is in pretty good shape right now heading into this week’s matchup vs. UCLA. The Nittany Lions are fresh off beating an undefeated team in Illinois, which is a nice College Football Playoff résumé-booster. Their defense has been strong – the unit is only allowing 11.5 ppg and tallied seven sacks against the Fighting Illini last Saturday. Those kinds of numbers are unfortunate for a UCLA team, which has one of the worst offenses in the country and enters this game having lost its last three.

Nicholas Singleton has been one of the more productive running backs in the country (averaging 102 rushing yards per game) and quarterback Drew Allar has been efficient and has protected the ball, throwing just one interception through four games. Penn State’s only weakness so far is its propensity for missing field goals. Kicker Sander Sahaydak missed both attempts last week and is 2-of-5 on the season. That’s going to need to improve for when the team inevitably finds itself in a close game later on.

The Nittany Lions have a lot going for them right now, and while it’s not unreasonable to call this a trap game, the Bruins have not proven to be dangerous enough to pull off an upset.

Michael Cohen: On paper, it’s easy to see why this week’s game against lowly UCLA could be considered a trap game for Penn State. The Nittany Lions are in a great place after beating No. 19 Illinois last week to remain unbeaten at 4-0 overall and 1-0 in the Big Ten. And two weeks from now, on Oct. 12, they’ll be in Los Angeles for what should be an incredible game against No. 11 USC that might have legitimate Big Ten title implications. Both the Nittany Lions and Trojans are among a handful of programs seeking to keep pace with No. 3 Ohio State and No. 6 Oregon in the national rankings this season.

But there’s almost nothing about Saturday’s matchup between Penn State and UCLA that suggests the game itself will be close, as the latter struggles to adjust to life in the Big Ten. An offense under the direction of head coach DeShaun Foster and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy ranks 127th overall (262 yards per game), 127th in scoring (14.8 points per game), 133rd in rushing (57 yards per game), 124th in third-down conversion rate (27.9%) and 131st in red zone touchdown rate (30%). A defense under the direction of defensive coordinator Ikaika Malloe ranks 99th overall (398.3 yards per game), 105th in scoring (30.8 points per game), 127th against the passing (291 yards per game), 134th in opponent third-down conversion rate (58.2%) and tied for 94th in opponent red zone touchdown rate (23.5%). Even the Bruins’ special teams units only rank 72nd in the country, according to the FEI Special Teams Ratings.

In other words, even if the Nittany Lions come out flat in Saturday’s game, it’s hard to imagine UCLA punishing them enough to pull the upset.

RJ Young: The only way this game turns into Admiral Ackbar exultation—”It’s a trap!”— is if Penn State doesn’t play like it has for the previous four games. Laken’s right. Penn State’s biggest weakness is its kicking game, but a kicker shouldn’t be the difference in a game the Nittany Lions are expected to win by a whopping 28 points.

The danger for Penn State likely won’t come with a loss to UCLA, but with a close win by Penn State. This is a team we’re not sold on as a Big Ten title contender. Winning by less than the spread only gives more reason to doubt Penn State as they get set to travel to Los Angeles for the Trojans next weekend.

No. 10 Michigan will travel to Washington to take on the Huskies in a rematch of last year’s national title game. These are two programs that appear to be in a very different spot than they were last year, despite the Wolverines‘ top-10 national ranking. Is this a simple case of attrition within both programs – players and coaches – or is there more to it?

RJ: It’s not just that this was the national title game last year. It’s that the teams Michigan and Washington beat to get there are the No. 1- (Alabama) and No. 2-ranked (Texas) teams in the country. But neither Michigan nor Washington look the same as they did a year ago: new head coaches, different coordinators.

Change is the only constant in the sport. Turnover on rosters is now catching up to turnover on coaching staffs, and the usual predictors for future success no longer mean as much. Adaptability, a sixth-or seventh-year player at QB, a healthy NIL war chest — these are the new predictors for success, and UW and Michigan seemed to have learned the hard way through this cycle.

Washington lost to Rutgers. Michigan was embarrassed by Texas.

This game feels less like a play-in for the CFP and more like an artifact displayed to anthropologists decades from now to demonstrate how the game flipped over into this new era of the sport.

Michael: The 24-hour period from late last Friday evening through the end of Alabama’s thrilling win over Georgia on Saturday night offered a fascinating window into the state of last year’s College Football Playoff participants. It began when Washington, the national runner-up from the 2023 campaign, was upended by unranked Rutgers as a 55-yard field goal attempt by the Huskies went awry in the closing moments. It continued on Saturday afternoon as Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore sounded humbled and subdued during a postgame interview on FOX after his Wolverines nearly imploded in the fourth quarter against Minnesota, the victory aided at least in part by a botched officiating decision during an onside kick. Then came Texas’ 35-13 win over Mississippi State in which backup quarterback Arch Manning, the former No. 1 overall player in the country, completed 26 of 31 passes for 324 yards and two touchdowns as the Longhorns remained unbeaten. And then there was the pièce de résistance: No. 4 Alabama sprinting to a 28-0 lead over No. 2 Georgia and then hanging on for what could be remembered as a season-defining win.

On the Big Ten side of that equation, the ongoing struggles at Michigan and Washington are showing just how difficult it is to replace generationally talented coaches in Jim Harbaugh and Kalen DeBoer. That the latter left Washington and immediately molded Alabama into a national championship contender following the retirement of head coach Nick Saban, who is arguably the greatest coach in college football history, shows just how stunningly special DeBoer really is after a mediocre rise from Sioux Falls to Fresno State and from Washington to the Crimson Tide. And all Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian did after losing nearly all of his skill players to the NFL was reload with a transfer portal class that had the highest net rating in the SEC, according to 247Sports.

That’s the kind of ruthless efficiency and high-level player acquisition that new regimes at Michigan (Moore) and Washington (Jedd Fisch) have been unable to match thus far.

Laken: Certainly a case of attrition.

For Michigan, Jim Harbaugh is now coaching in the NFL and former quarterback J.J. McCarthy, though he’s been out with an injury, was a top 10 draft pick. The Wolverines broke the all-time program record for the most players taken in one draft with 13 being selected. That takes a toll on most programs, unless you are built like Georgia or Alabama. Sherrone Moore, though he served in the role while Harbaugh missed games due to suspension last year, is in his first year as head coach. He doesn’t have the kind of talent this team had a year ago, and desperately needs a quarterback and more playmakers on offense.

Meanwhile, Washington is still mourning losing its former coach Kalen DeBoer to Alabama. He’s doing quite well, by the way, coming off a smashing SEC debut over the weekend in which the Crimson Tide upset Georgia in the type of game that usually happens when there’s a trophy on the line. Now, he’s the head coach of the No. 1 team in the country. The Huskies hired Jedd Fisch from Arizona in the offseason, but he hasn’t gotten consistent production out of this team yet. Plus, when your program’s top offensive playmakers are taken in the top 10 of the NFL Draft, you’re naturally going to have setbacks if you can’t immediately replace them.

Looking at this week’s AP Top 25 Poll, is there one team that jumps out to you and has surprised you more than others?

Michael: There might have been folks out there who believed first-year head coach Curt Cignetti could turn Indiana around quickly after the Hoosiers parted ways with former head coach Tom Allen, who is now the defensive coordinator at Penn State. But it’s unlikely that even the most ardent IU supporters were forecasting what we’ve seen so far from Cignetti and his reconfigured roster: five blowout victories in as many chances for Indiana, which entered the AP Poll at No. 23 this week. Perhaps even more shocking is that the Hoosiers rank third nationally in scoring offense at 48.8 points per game and 13th nationally in scoring defense at 13 points per game. Indiana is 5-0 for the first time since 1967.

Still, any legitimate conversation about the Hoosiers must include a discussion of the schedule Cignetti & Co. have played thus far. Based on their first five opponents — FIU, Western Illinois, UCLA, Charlotte and Maryland, all of whom have a combined record of 9-14 this season — the Hoosiers’ strength of schedule ranks 119th nationally, according to Pro Football Focus, and second-to-last among programs from the Power 4 conferences ahead of Louisville. No other Big Ten programs have played schedules that rank outside the top 100 nationally, with Nebraska (99) and Rutgers (89) being the only other teams whose schedules even rank beyond the top 80.

Things will look much different for Indiana the rest of the way, however, as the Hoosiers’ remaining schedule ranks 20th nationally in difficulty: at Northwestern, vs. Nebraska, vs. Washington, at Michigan State, vs. No. 10 Michigan, at No. 3 Ohio State, vs. Purdue. So, either Cignetti and his team are for real, or the IU bubble is about to burst sooner than later.

Laken: No. 17 BYU.

Nobody had the Cougars as a Big 12 contender, but here we are. BYU is 5-0 and No. 1 in the conference after impressive wins over then-No. 13 Kansas State and Baylor on the road. In the victory over the Bears last week, the Cougars ran out to a 28-7 lead before Dave Aranda’s team showed some fight. While the offense has been inconsistent, the defense has been sound – after Baylor cut into the lead, the defense made three big stops, including a game-saving interception, to hold onto the W.

The Cougars still have to play Oklahoma State and Utah, but overall, have a winnable schedule and, at this rate, could find themselves playing for a conference championship in December. Kalani Sitake’s team has shown early resilience, which should continue to serve them well.

RJ: No. 25 UNLV

Let’s list what UNLV has done and been apart of since Week 1:

A win against a ranked opponent. The first real case of a player refusing to play because he said he didn’t get paid the price he agreed to. The backup QB leading the team to a decisive victory to get the Runnin’ Rebels into the top 25 for the first time in program history and off to its best start in school history. One of the schools who could tip the balance of power in the Pac-12 and Mountain West realignment quest for an eighth member to earn qualification to the 2026 CFP. The Rebels’ Oct. 25 matchup with future Pac-12 member Boise State could give us the answer to who the favorite to win the Mountain West is and secure the G5 conference champ invitation to the first 12-team CFP.

Not a bad month in Vegas.

Oregon has outscored in-state rival Oregon State and Big Ten foe UCLA by a combined 56 points over the last two weeks. The Ducks are set to host Michigan State in a primetime Friday night matchup on FOX this week. After a slow start to the season, is this the Oregon team you expected to see, or do the Ducks still have room to grow?

Laken: After an underwhelming start to the season, Oregon has gotten into a better groove these last two weeks with convincing wins over Oregon State and UCLA. Last week, the Ducks’ defense kept a clean sheet and the only touchdown allowed was a 96-yard pick six by the Bruins’ Bryan Addison, who intercepted Dillon Gabriel in the second quarter. That was Gabriel’s only interception of the season so far. By comparison, he’s had nine touchdowns and is completing 81.5% of his passes, which is good for the best in the country. Now that Oregon’s offensive line is gelling, Gabriel is looking more like the Heisman hopeful he’s projected to be.

The Ducks should handle Michigan State on Friday. The real test comes the next week on Oct. 12 when Ohio State visits Autzen Stadium. That’s when we’ll know what kind of team Dan Lanning has this year.

RJ: They better learn to take the ball away before Oct. 12. With a turnover margin of zero — 11th out of 18 in the Big Ten — and three of their next four games against ranked opponents, I’d like to see the Ducks win Friday night with interceptions, fumbles recovered and a clean offense.

It’s time the Ducks began to resemble the national title team we thought they could be in the preseason.

Michael: One aspect of Oregon’s winning formula last season as the Ducks finished 12-2 and won the Fiesta Bowl during their second season under head coach Dan Lanning was an incredible turnover margin of plus-11 that ranked tied for fourth nationally. The only programs with better turnover margins last year were Northwestern (plus-13), Penn State (plus-16) and Michigan (plus-19), the eventual national champion. To get there, the Ducks weren’t necessarily one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers — after all, their 12 interceptions ranked outside the top 25 nationally and their six fumbles gained were tied for 79th — but they had an incredible ability to avoid turning the ball over offensively. Quarterback Bo Nix, who is now starting for the Denver Broncos, tossed 45 touchdowns and only three interceptions last season. Oregon’s ball carriers only lost two fumbles all season, tied for the third-fewest in the country.

In 2024, however, the Ducks haven’t been quite as prolific with their turnover margin. The defenses’ total of four takeaways — all interceptions — is tied for 93rd nationally. The offenses’ total of four giveaways — three of which were lost fumbles — is tied for 33rd overall. And the net result is a turnover margin of zero that puts Oregon in a tie for 66th nationally and tied for 11th in the Big Ten.

So yes, the Ducks have room to grow.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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