Cowboys Corner: CeeDee breakout incoming? Can ailing defense slow Steelers?

chonprasit

National Football League

Updated Oct. 4, 2024 2:52 p.m. ET

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Standing on the brink of a disaster, the Dallas Cowboys were finally able to take a step back and take a much-needed deep breath.

That was their reward for their ugly, but important 20-15 win over the New York Giants last Thursday night. It was hardly an impressive performance, but it was enough to improve their record to 2-2.

They knew the alternative — a loss to the lowly Giants — would surely have felt like the end of their world.

But as they head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers (3-1) on Sunday night, they can still see the edge. They know they’re only a loss away from causing Cowboys Nation to start hyperventilating again.

“We’re not going to get complacent,” Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said. “We’re not going to get overexcited about what we’ve done. It’s about building and it’s about figuring out what we can do better in all phases.

“But it’s a lot easier to do that after a win.”

Well, “easier” might be a stretch heading into a road game against a good Steelers team, and without two of their best defenders. The Cowboys still have a lot of issues to address, and not a lot of room for error.

Fox Sports NFL writers David Helman and Ralph Vacchiano take a look at the Cowboys’ still-dire situation heading into what feels like yet another must-win game:

Do you think the Cowboys are 0-2 at home this year and 2-0 on the road mostly because of who they’ve played and where they’ve played them, or is it something deeper?

Helman: I’m not going to overthink this one. The Cowboys’ two road wins came against offenses ranked No. 32 and No. 23 in total offensive DVOA. The two home losses happened against the No. 1 and No. 9 offenses in the same metric. They’ve played two good teams at AT&T Stadium and two middling/bad ones on the road. That’s going to make this weekend’s road trip to Pittsburgh fun. The Steelers have a top-10 defense this season, and their offense is a perfectly respectable 17th. This should be, quite easily, their toughest road trip yet.

Vacchiano: I think it’s a little of both, actually. There’s no doubt they played tougher teams at home (Saints, Ravens) than on the road (Browns, Giants). It also absolutely helped them that the Giants and Browns are two teams with awful offenses. That’s the easy and obvious reason for the split. But there’s still a deeper meaning here because of the standards the Cowboys have set for themselves. They shouldn’t be blown out by what I still think is a middle-of-the-pack Saints team, especially at home. And they should be able to hang with the Ravens, even though they may turn out to be the best team in the AFC (ignore the final score because Dallas needed a frantic comeback to get as close as they did). What that is showing me is that the Cowboys may not be the contender they think they are this year. They should be playing better against good teams, which is why this game in Pittsburgh on Sunday night is so important. The Steelers are 3-1 and very tough and they’ve got a Top 10 rushing attack and a Top 5 defense. The Cowboys need to show something — anything — even though it’ll be tough without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. So I’m less concerned with the home/road split than I am with the good team/bad team split. If the Cowboys can only beat the bad teams in the league, this is going to be a very long year.

DeMarcus Lawrence is going on IR with a foot injury, so he’ll be out at least a month. How big of a blow is that to the defense?

Vacchiano: It is a huge blow. There’s no way around that. The Cowboys defense has been generally terrible and it’s been one of the worst in the league against the run. That’s due mostly to some pretty bad performances from their defensive line. And now their best defensive lineman is going to be out for a month? Not only that, the Cowboys haven’t been able to generate much of a pass rush and Lawrence has been their best rusher with three of their eight total sacks. There is really no way to replace him, unless Jerry Jones wanted to go and make the ultra-bold step of trading for Haason Reddick, who is still holding out with the Jets (spoiler alert: Jones doesn’t seem to want to do that). He’s also a leader of that defense which, to be honest, seems to be adrift as it adjusts to the new Mike Zimmer scheme. They desperately need a guy like Lawrence to hold it together. And with Micah Parsons out too (see the next question), it’s really unclear who the new leader is going to be.

Helman: It’s tough to stomach, as his absence looks likely to hurt the Cowboys in more ways than one. For starters, he’s been a phenomenal run defender his entire career, so losing him isn’t good news for a defense that’s already struggled against the run. Then there’s the fact that Lawrence is the main beneficiary of the attention that’s paid to Micah Parsons. Parsons has been doubled-team twice as often as Lawrence so far this season, and you can typically count on Lawrence to beat one-on-one matchups. His pressure rate so far this season was top-50 among all defensive linemen — which admittedly isn’t amazing, but it’s far better than what the Cowboys will have without him.

How much will DeMarcus Lawrence’s absence limit the Cowboys defensively? (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Micah Parsons is dealing with a sprained ankle (and will miss the game in Pittsburgh). But even before that injury, he’s had just one sack this season. Is he a bad fit for Mike Zimmer’s defense, off to an unusually slow start, or is he playing better than the stats indicate?

Helman: I think Micah’s just fine. No, he hasn’t tallied many sacks, but his presence is still being felt. Through four games, he’s tied for 7th in total pressures with 20. He’s also tied for 9th in pressure percentage, with 18.2% of his rushes leading to a pressure. He’s also doing all of that while getting double–teamed fifth-most among edge rushers. So yes, he’s still playing well, he’s just not getting home yet. And it’s worth pointing out that the Cowboys fell behind early in two games, which makes it tough to rush the passer. Provided the Cowboys can improve their run defense enough to be able to rush the passer, I think the sacks will come.

Vacchiano: This may all depend on how you judge Micah Parsons. When Zimmer was hired he made it clear that he had big plans for Parsons, that he would be used in multiple roles — not just as a pass rusher. And Parsons is playing well. He’s actually the 11th-rated edge defender as graded by Pro Football Focus. But here’s the thing: That seems really low for Parsons, who has been a Defensive Player of the Year candidate every year he’s been in the league. And the sack production is a huge dropoff for someone who averaged 13.5 sacks in each of his first three seasons. When Parsons gets back — and the Cowboys are really hopeful he’ll only miss one game — Zimmer needs to find a way to turn him loose, to get him away from what seems like constant double teams. Because Parsons isn’t supposed to just be good. He’s one of the top impact defenders in football. But can anyone think of one impact play he’s made this season? I can’t. That’s crazy. He should be a game-wrecker, and Zimmer has to put him in a position where he can really disrupt whatever the opposing offense is doing. That hasn’t been happening so far.

The Cowboys have the worst rushing attack in the NFL (75.3 yards per game), while Dak Prescott has attempted (149) and completed (96) more passes than any QB in the NFL. Is that kind of imbalance sustainable?

Vacchiano: No, it’s not, and it seems like everyone except for Jerry Jones knows it. And, of course, we’ve all known it since last March when the Cowboys decided $9 million guaranteed was way too high a price to pay for a running back like Derrick Henry (or any of the many other quality backs on the free-agent market). Prescott is really good and can win a lot of games on his own, especially with a receiver like Lamb. But defenses know that’s all the Cowboys have. The Giants, with their terrible secondary, held Prescott to just 221 yards last week in part because they doubled Lamb and gave Prescott no big windows to throw into. If Prescott is going to be forced to force balls to Lamb it’s going to lead to turnovers. And if the Cowboys can’t run, teams with good pass rushes are going to blitz the heck out of Prescott, forcing him to throw quicker and quicker. The Cowboys were a one-dimensional team last year, but still managed to win 12 games before they were exposed in the playoffs. They’re even more one-dimensional now, and if that keeps up, 12 wins will seem like a dream.

Helman: Absolutely not, and I think it could be a big problem as soon as this weekend. Prescott was fantastic last week against the Giants, but he’s currently No. 2 in the league in tight window throws, and his targets are dead-last in separation, according to NextGen Stats. How often can he get away with that without committing turnovers? We might find out soon, because the run game simply isn’t working. The Cowboys have four rushes of 10+ yards this season, which is dead-last in the league. Even worse, CeeDee Lamb is responsible for two of those four runs. This isn’t sustainable, but I’m not sure Dallas has a choice.

CeeDee Lamb is on pace for 85 catches, 1,343 yards and 9 touchdowns. But outside of his two touchdowns — 65 yards and 55 yards — he’s averaging just 10.9 yards per catch (18-196). Has he disappointed thus far, especially in light of his extension, or do you attribute his lack of production to other issues with the Cowboys offense?

Helman: I’m more worried about the Cowboys’ overall offense than I am about Lamb. This unit is just a bit of a painful watch right now. As I mentioned earlier, the Cowboys aren’t creating any separation and they aren’t generating many explosive plays. Some of that is their scheme and their play calling. Dallas ranks 24th in the league in pre-snap motion, which seems to suggest they aren’t creating advantageous situations for their receivers. And if they aren’t going to scheme their guys open, they just might not have the horses to win outright. I’m not sure where this is heading, but I don’t think I like it.

Vacchiano: I’m with Dave here. Lamb is probably the least of my worries about this team. That pace is pretty good, and he hasn’t really had a big game yet. You know those are coming. And while I’d love to see a little more consistency on the yards after the catch, those big plays can’t be discounted. And more of those are probably coming, too. He’s just that good, and he’s playing with an elite quarterback. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s up around 100 catches and 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns before this season is over. That said, there is a huge burden on him right now. And Dave is right about needing to get more separation — either Lamb himself, or from Mike McCarthy’s scheme. Every defense in the NFL knows that the key to beating the Cowboys is shutting down Lamb. They almost literally have no other viable offensive option. If McCarthy can’t find ways to get Lamb free of the extra attention, it’s going to limit his explosiveness and lead to turnovers. But if the Cowboys can free him up just a little bit, Lamb’s going to remind everyone why the Cowboys just gave him that four-year, $136 million deal.

David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.