Cowboys-Packers preview: Matchups, storylines, predictions for the playoff rivalry game

chonprasit

National Football League

Published Jan. 11, 2024 2:12 p.m. ET

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Carmen Vitali

NFC North Reporter

David Helman

Dallas Cowboys Insider

The football gods were generous in awarding us with these circumstances.

It’s noteworthy any time a marquee NFL team reaches the postseason. The Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers will always be interesting draws in their own right because of their storied histories and their rabid fanbases.

When you pit them against each other, it’s something else entirely.

It’s the Ice Bowl. It’s nine combined Super Bowls. It’s the Cowboys’ most recent NFC Championship Game win, all the way back in 1996. It’s two previous playoff classics this past decade — “Dez Caught It” and “third-and-20.”

This time around, it’s also a chance for Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy to face off against his former team; the one he led to a Super Bowl championship in his current home stadium back in 2011.

When the head coach has a street named after him outside the opponent’s stadium, you know the storylines are good. And that’s exactly the type of stuff McCarthy doesn’t want to focus on.

“The drama of it, I’m sure you guys will love, but I will not participate in it this year,” he said. “It’s playoff time. It doesn’t matter who we play, to be honest with you. … We need to play our best football.”

Fortunately for us, the actual matchups in this game (Sunday at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app) look just as juicy as the narratives.

FOX Sports Cowboys writer David Helman and NFC North writer Carmen Vitali break them all down.

David Helman: For starters, Carmen, I can’t help but think back to a month ago when it looked like the Packers had missed their chance at this type of opportunity. They lost an embarrassing Monday night game in New York, then turned around and got their doors blown off by Tampa Bay. Their playoff hopes appeared to be dead in the water.

Three weeks later, it’s not just that they’ve made the postseason, but the Packers have earned everyone’s favorite label: “the team you don’t want to play right now.”

I’ll keep it simple: what changed these last three weeks that has Green Bay playing with so much confidence?

Carmen Vitali: It’s not a sexy answer, but they gained experience — not only with each other but against NFL opponents. We aren’t talking enough about how young this team is. The Packers have the youngest roster in the league. Even though quarterback Jordan Love is technically in his fourth season, he turned 25 a couple of months ago. His oldest receivers? Romeo Doubs is 23. Christian Watson is 24. Love’s leading receiver? That’s rookie Jayden Reed, who is 23. Only nine players on the entire roster are older than 27. They just needed time to acclimate to one another and NFL competition.

Now that they have, Love is playing as well as any quarterback in the league and elevating the play of those around him. Even with injuries they’ve sustained in the receiving corps, they’ve been able to call up the next man and have him perform. I’d like you to name anyone who thought Bo Melton was going to be a factor this year in Green Bay before the season.

Above all else though, now that they have this experience, head coach Matt LaFleur has enough trust in his players to open up the playbook more. He’ll be coming in with something to prove to the coach who brought Green Bay its last Super Bowl.

Speaking of McCarthy and his offense, he took over play-calling duties this year for the Cowboys. Does he have the same tendencies he did in his Green Bay days — and could that give the Packers a leg up?

Helman: I don’t think so, and that’s more than a bit ironic.

Going back to last spring, McCarthy made waves by insinuating he was going to take things back to the old school — true, West Coast-style passing with a heavy reliance on the run. A conservative approach that would lean into the Cowboys’ defense being the strength of the team.

To this day, no one can pinpoint what forced the change. Maybe it was Trevon Diggs‘ injury and the impact his loss had on the defense. Maybe it was the inconsistency of the running game. Maybe McCarthy realized on his own that the approach wasn’t working. Maybe Dak Prescott came to him after the disastrous Week 5 loss to San Francisco and asked, “what on Earth are we doing?”

All we know for sure is that, from Week 6 onward, something changed. The Cowboys realized that the strength of their team was putting the ball in Prescott’s hands, and then letting Prescott get it to CeeDee Lamb.

It’s clearly working. The Cowboys are within the top five-to-ten in most meaningful metrics this season — scoring offense, third-down efficiency and explosive plays among them. Prescott is playing the best football of his career, and Lamb has ascended into the game’s top tier.

And yes, to be fair, I’m sure a lot of this offense is stuff the Packers will recognize. I don’t think McCarthy has reinvented the wheel. But the difference is, I think Prescott is running the show more than he ever has in his career. He’s got the wherewithal and the confidence to get his guys into the right play, regardless of what’s being called from the sideline. And when that call still doesn’t work, he’s using his athleticism to fix it more than we’ve seen in the last five years.

So I don’t think Green Bay’s going to be caught off guard by anything McCarthy is calling. But he has a quarterback who’s operating those calls at a hell of a high level.

Cowboys vs. Packers: Does McCarthy need a deep playoff run to save his job?

That feels like a natural segue to the other half of that equation. It’s hard not to notice the angst in Green Bay about Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry and his unit. What are they doing well right now? And more importantly for Dallas, what might give them trouble in this matchup?

Vitali: The easy answer is the pass rush. We’ve seen an uptick in how this Green Bay front gets to quarterbacks, with some coverage sacks sprinkled in. The Packers have recorded nine sacks in their last two games. Of course, that recent success has to be taken with a grain of salt given their last two opponents were a Nick Mullens-led Vikings team followed by a drubbing of Justin Fields and the Bears.

Still, there seem to have been adjustments made and Barry deserves credit for that. We’ve seen more creativity upfront and a lot more man coverage in the game against Chicago. That’s allowed for some coverage sacks given that Green Bay has talent in the secondary. Jaire Alexander is still a good corner when he’s on the field. All signs point to him being available again on Sunday.

However, like on the offensive side of the ball, the defensive secondary is still young. They’re starting rookie Carrington Valentine opposite Alexander. Cornerback Corey Ballentine is also getting significant playing time. I’d think that a quarterback as experienced as Prescott, who is playing at an elite level, could take advantage of that youth, especially on the outside of the Green Bay defense.

What do you think is the biggest key to the game for the Packers to pull off the upset? Where can they take advantage of a perceived Cowboys weakness?

Helman: I think the answer to that is two-fold.

Shoutout to my guy Bobby Belt, of 105.3 FM “The Fan” in Dallas, for this nugget: Aaron Jones is averaging 100 rushing yards per game and five yards per carry over the Packers’ last three games. Beyond that, in three career games against Dallas, he has also scored six touchdowns and averaged 157 yards per game in those outings — all three of them wins.

Aaron Rodgers is long gone from Green Bay, but the other Aaron remains a boogeyman for the Dallas defense.

But it’s more than just Jones’ ability as a runner. Among the 14 teams in this year’s playoffs, the Packers are fourth in pass attempts off play-action, and they’re also fourth in yards gained off play-action passes. With a young quarterback starting his first playoff game on the road, here’s guessing Matt LaFleur will lean into that to take some pressure off Jordan Love.

The Cowboys are notoriously aggressive. It’s often successful, but it can bite them at times. If they’re not sound against the run — as well as the threat of play action — the Packers could hit them for some explosive gains, and that could set the stage for an upset.

Speaking of Jordan Love, we all know the guy’s playing out of his mind. What’s been the key to his second-half surge, and what can the Cowboys do to make his playoff debut uncomfortable?

Is Jordan Love the Packers’ next franchise QB?

Vitali: That’s going to be the key, right? Well, that and stopping Jones, like you said. The Packers have a completely different offense with Jones on the field, and Love is more comfortable when he can go to the reliable vet — one of the few vets on the offense, mind you.

Love is hard to defend, given that he can win in a lot of different ways. He works well within an offense he’s been in for four seasons at this point (even if he wasn’t operating it for three of them) but is also good out of structure. There have been times this season when I’ve joked he would rather throw off his back foot than step into a throw. The crazy part is, it doesn’t seem to matter whether he’s off-platform or not. His ball placement has been good-to-great this season, putting the ball where only his receivers can get it, and he can maintain that accuracy regardless of circumstances.

His receivers have learned that, too. Given their youth, there are still times when they run the wrong route or don’t turn their head around in time — things you expect out of first- and second-year players. If the Cowboys can make those mistakes happen a little more often, it could throw off the passing game, even with Love slinging it. The only thing is, you also have to contend with Love taking off himself. He doesn’t do it terribly often, but he can. That’s part of what makes him so fun to watch.

My best advice for the Cowboys would be to try to exploit the inexperience of his receivers, because while Love may be a first-year starter, he’s no rookie.

Helman: I truly can’t wait for this quarterback matchup. Dak Prescott went punch-for-punch with Rodgers as a rookie during that 2016 playoff classic. How fitting that the tables have turned, with Prescott playing at an MVP level, and Love making his first playoff start.

We can do this all day, but we’re starting to run long. Let’s get to the picks. I firmly believe Matt LaFleur is going to have an excellent game plan that’s going to take advantage of the Cowboys’ weaknesses. But ultimately, I don’t think Green Bay’s defense can manage Prescott and his offense’s firepower. I’m guessing it will be a fun game for three, three-and-a-half quarters before Dallas eventually eases into the divisional round in a 34-24 win.

What say you?

Vitali: I think I tend to agree with you. This will come down to how effective Green Bay’s defensive game plan is — and right away, at that. Barry hasn’t shown an overwhelming ability to adjust in-game, so if it doesn’t work right away, I’m not sure the Packers will be able to stop Prescott and the ‘Boys.

Given how well Dallas is playing at home and the fact that any Packers postseason success is a bonus at this point — lord help me — I think I’m taking the Cowboys. But! I think Green Bay will cover the seven-point spread with a final score of 31-27.

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.