Dak Prescott has all the leverage in Cowboys contract talks … and he knows it

National Football League

Updated Sep. 3, 2024 5:24 p.m. ET

There is still, theoretically, plenty of time for the Dallas Cowboys to re-sign Dak Prescott. He doesn’t officially become a free agent until next March 12. That gives Jerry Jones almost exactly six months to get a deal that should have been done months ago.

He needs to sign Prescott because he has no choice. It’s the only way to avoid a potentially catastrophic loss for his franchise.

But that really is a Jerry Jones problem. At this point, Dak Prescott is better off heading into the NFL season without a new deal so he can become the biggest free agent in the history of the NFL.

That sure seems where Prescott and the Cowboys are headed as the quarterback gets set to play out the final year of the four-year, $160 million contract he signed back in 2021. There was some thought last week that when Jones finally signed receiver CeeDee Lamb to his four-year, $136 million deal, that Prescott would be next. But after sporadic contract talks throughout the offseason, a deal has never seemed close at all.

That’s not good news for the Cowboys franchise. But it could be great news for Prescott, who has all the leverage in this case, especially if he plays as well as he has the last few years. It was already probably going to take a deal worth $60 million per year for the Cowboys to keep him long-term. And his price is only going to go up from there, which is why he knows he doesn’t need a new contract done now.

“I don’t need it, no. I don’t,” Prescott said last week. “I think it says a lot if it is or if it isn’t. But however, doesn’t really matter to me, to be honest with you.”

His nonchalance about what will surely be record-setting money is easy to understand, because he knows there could be a long line of teams waiting to throw bags of cash at him next March. It’s not hard to see how teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams could all be clearing out cap room after this season to try and squeeze Prescott in.

He really is that good, but that part almost doesn’t matter. Top quarterbacks are rarely available, and when they are teams will do crazy things to get them. Just two years ago, Deshaun Watson sparked a bidding war among four teams despite being accused of sexual harassment and assault by 30 women, and he ended up with a fully guaranteed, $230 million deal from Cleveland. Kirk Cousins was considered one of the best quarterbacks ever to hit the open market back in 2018 and he got a fully guaranteed, three-year, $84 million deal from the Minnesota Vikings. And last offseason he cashed in again, getting $180 million over four years from Atlanta.

Prescott is better and more accomplished than both of them, and he knows it. It’s why some NFL agents have speculated that if he hits free agency, that $60 million-per-year figure might only be the starting point for a bidding war that could get close to $70 million per year.

And at this point, with free agency so tantalizingly close, why pass up a chance at that?

That’s why the Cowboys should have given in and hit that $60 million bar months ago, especially when they saw quarterback salaries spiraling this offseason. Asked why a deal hasn’t been done, Jones gave a word-salad answer about how it “has more to do with our (salary cap) situation than it does with the merits of Dak Prescott.”

That sounds reasonable, except that the Cowboys aren’t in any kind of long-term cap trouble. Besides, a well-structured contract can keep cap costs under control. It’s also not like any cap problems are going to get easier to handle. The price of top quarterbacks is going to go down any time soon. The sooner he pays it, the cheaper it’s going to be.

And then there’s this: The most important consideration when deciding on what to do with a quarterback who is seeking a new contract is to answer this question: What’s next? And with the Cowboys, the answer is … problematic.

Trey Lance is the obvious heir apparent, since he was the third overall pick of the 2021 draft and the Cowboys acquired him last year for a fourth-round draft pick. But he is largely considered a bust, and with good reason. And he didn’t exactly inspire confidence when he threw a remarkable five interceptions last weekend, playing mostly against Los Angeles Chargers backups in a preseason game.

The Cowboys could draft a quarterback in 2025, but with Prescott they’re not likely to lose enough games to draft high. They could dip into free agency, but the best quarterback available by far will be Prescott. Second best could be … Russell Wilson? Maybe Daniel Jones?

In other words, they don’t have an answer to “What’s next?” — at least not one that anyone wants to hear. And not to be indelicate, but Jones is 81 years old, so time is of the essence, especially since the Cowboys haven’t been to a Super Bowl since the 1995 season. Prescott is their best bet to end that drought both now and in the near future, without having to endure a rebuilding project that will be painful for everyone.

Prescott and his agents surely know all that. He has all the leverage. The only thing that could change that would be if he got hurt this season. Then again, he also got hurt in 2020, badly dislocating his right ankle. Yet five months later the Cowboys still gave him a deal that included $126 million guaranteed.

Yes, there’s always risk, but at this point this game is a much greater risk for the Cowboys. Prescott is almost certainly going to get a record deal from someone by next season, and the more teams that have a shot, the higher his price is going to be. And if he plays well and the Cowboys win again, he knows that Jones is going to feel increasingly desperate to not let him walk away.

So yeah, it might be nice to get everything done now. Prescott can cash a huge check, relax in another giant layer of financial security, and begin this critical season free of distractions. But the flip side is that if he’s willing to take a small risk, the rewards will likely be exponential.

Prescott is the one in control of a situation that Jones could have settled months ago. There’s really no reason for the quarterback to give that up now.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.