Dolphins vs. Bills in high-octane showdown: Doubt the fish at your own risk

National Football League

Published Sep. 28, 2023 1:35 p.m. ET

The Miami Dolphins are the hottest team in football and the Buffalo Bills have somehow turned into one of the more forgotten teams.

Yes, I’ll talk about the Bills. They are second in the NFL in DVOA, an advanced metric measuring overall efficiency, only to the Dolphins. So Sunday’s matchup is a battle of the best and second-best teams in the NFL.

But, honestly, like the rest of the NFL world, I want to talk about the Dolphins more. Tua Tagovailoa is rocketing up the MVP projections. The Dolphins are at the top of most power rankings. Coach Mike McDaniel has his system humming. It’s impressive.

The Dolphins just put up 70 points against the Denver Broncos in a rout that left Sean Payton eating his words about how Nathaniel Hackett did “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL.” Payton didn’t do such a great job preparing the Broncos for the Dolphins, who could have easily set the NFL record for scoring in a regular-season game. Instead, they elected to kneel the ball out of what McDaniel called “respect.” That’s a stretch after putting up 70.

This week, the Dolphins are the ones not getting respect as they head to Buffalo. The Bills opened as 2.5-point favorites, in part because they have won 10 of the last 11 games against Miami in Buffalo. There’s a run going. Sometimes, that much momentum is hard to stop — sort of like Josh Allen scrambling for a first down. But then again, this season there has been a lot of this for Allen.

He keeps diving or going airborne and … not getting the first down. And maybe there’s some symbolism about how the Dolphins can stop the Bills in this game. While Buffalo has been mostly terrific, the Bills are beatable. The New York Jets proved as much, with their win in Week 1 when Allen had four turnovers.

Let’s talk about how each team can pull off a win in our preview of the best game of the week.

Mesmerizing matchup: CB Xavien Howard vs. WR Stefon Diggs

The Bills offense can finally run through players not named Diggs and Allen. (Their problem in 2022 was that they were over reliant upon their two biggest stars.) Buffalo has James Cook firing at 6.1 yards per carry. But in the passing game, Diggs is still the engine. He has 25 catches for 279 yards and a touchdown. He’s a tough assignment for any cornerback.

So far this year, Howard hasn’t looked like he’s in true lockdown mode. He let up 76 yards last week to the Broncos, including a 30-yarder to Marvin Mims. Maybe it’s a case of Howard’s team being up 50 points and so he let up his intensity. But Howard will need to play at a higher level against Diggs, who somehow always manages to get his touches.

Are Dolphins the best team in the NFL?

But if the Dolphins can do something remarkable — and try to cut off Allen’s pipeline to Diggs — it has historically forced the Bills into a weird place. Their offense falters. And so Howard could alter the complexion of this game, if he can limit Diggs.

I want to acknowledge a similarly important matchup: Tyreek Hill and Tre’Davious White. But I think that is slightly less important. The Dolphins have proven that if you stop Hill, they’ll hit you with someone else, like Jaylen Waddle, who is likely to return this week from concussion protocol. I’m not sure the Bills have proven they have that level of a 1-2 punch in the passing game in 2023 (or in 2022 for that matter).

What the Bills can’t let happen: Allen logs multiple turnovers

The Dolphins defense is not great. It’s improving. Miami has a talented group of players with a hugely intelligent defensive mind in coordinator Vic Fangio. And still, he Dolphins are letting up 23.7 points per game, 12th-most in the NFL. The Chargers got into a shootout with the Dolphins and nearly won. New England, which has been pretty bad offensively, managed to claw its way into a game against Miami’s defense. It seems like a bend-don’t-break unit — doing just enough.

Allen can’t let the Dolphins keep getting away with that. He can’t hand them the ball with poor decision-making like he did with the Jets. He can’t make the Miami defense look better than it is. Allen has to play under control.

Nick Wright’s NFL Tiers: Bills “championship caliber” entering Week 4

What the Dolphins can’t let happen: hubris

Anytime a team puts up 70 points, it’s going to get cocky. The question is whether that lends itself to arrogance or even hubris.

The Bills might have a loss on their record, but they should probably be undefeated, just like the Dolphins. If not for Allen’s four turnovers against the Jets — many of them unforced — the Bills would be 3-0. As I’ve mentioned a few times, Miami’s defense is not as good as it thinks it is. And Tagovailoa actually looked flummoxed in the second half against the Patriots defense. He hasn’t been unstoppable, even with the counting stats looking absolutely insane. The Bills could get after him. And if the Dolphins aren’t careful, they could let this game slip out of their control.

Stats to know:

The Bills lead the NFL with nine takeaways through three games.
The Bills lead the NFL on third-down, converting 51.2% of their attemptsSince Josh Allen became the full-time starter in 2019, only the Chiefs have been better on third down (49.3% to 45.6%).
Since Josh Allen became the full-time starter in 2019, only the Chiefs have been better on third down (49.3% to 45.6%).
Opponents have scored on just 57.1% of red-zone opportunities against Buffalo this season, second-best in the NFL (Browns, 50%).
The Dolphins are looking to begin a season 4-0 for the first time since 1995.
If Miami scores 54-plus points on Sunday, it would be the most by a team through four games in NFL history.
The Dolphins are the only team in the NFL to put up 500-plus total yards in multiple games this season (first AFC team to put up 350-plus rush yards in a game since the Ravens in 2020).
No team in the NFL has a better touchdown percentage in the red zone than the Dolphins (78.6%).They are the only team with 10-plus red-zone touchdowns this year.
They are the only team with 10-plus red-zone touchdowns this year.

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Prediction: It sounds crazy, given the history, but I think Miami wins this game. I understand that the Dolphins could get cocky after all their offensive production. Maybe the Bills are hungrier. But sometimes, a team is too hot to pick against. Both offenses will play more conservatively than you’d expect, in part because the defenses will be on-point. Still, Miami will eke out a victory, perhaps even at the hands of a Josh Allen turnover.

The Dolphins win 27-25.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.