Falcons coach Arthur Smith sees a turnaround after three close losses

National Football League

Published Nov. 15, 2023 12:00 p.m. ET

Arthur Smith’s Falcons have lost three in a row, and led in the final minute of the past two games, so their bye week is well-timed. It’s almost like a timeout during a bad run in a basketball game — a pause, a reset, a chance to catch your breath and try to change directions.

Three weeks ago, Atlanta was in first place in the NFC South, with the confidence of knowing they didn’t face a single opponent with a winning record the rest of the way. They’ve now lost three straight games against those teams, so their confidence must come from somewhere else.

“The good news is we’re not dead,” Smith said Monday. “We have a chance to salvage the season or do something about it. Whatever the odds are, we can use this time to get away, try to find solutions, and come back in here and do everything we can to beat New Orleans.”

Atlanta (4-6) is only a game back in a middling division, and its next game is against the division-leading Saints, who are wobbly themselves after falling behind 27-3 to the Vikings in what ended up a 27-19 loss going into their own bye. Both teams lost starting quarterbacks to injury Sunday, and while New Orleans has made it clear that Derek Carr remains their starter, the Falcons have made no such declarations between Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder.

Heinicke, in his second game taking over as starter for Ridder, went down with a low-grade hamstring injury, and Ridder rallied the team with a touchdown run for the lead with 2:08 to go. Ridder has 12 turnovers this season — six interceptions and six lost fumbles — but to hear Smith, he has likely earned another chance to lead this team.

“He came back, worked on it and obviously played pretty well,” Smith said. “Everybody’s different, but I think what you saw with Des, what was very encouraging, was that’s tough for anybody as a young player in his career. And he has had success. … But we needed to get the turnovers under control.

“I always watch who wants the ball when the game is on the line, and he wanted the ball in his hands. That’s why we loved him coming out of Cincinnati.”

Sunday brought progress with nagging issues in the red zone. The Falcons got three touchdowns in four trips there, including a 2-for-2 mark in goal-to-go situations, including a 5-yard touchdown by rookie running back Bijan Robinson.

The defense is another story. After holding their first seven opponents to 24 points or fewer, the Falcons have given up 25 or more in each of the three losses. They’ve held opponents scoreless in just two of their past 24 quarters, a steady trickle of points against them, especially since losing defensive tackle Grady Jarrett to a season-ending injury.

Losing close games has made the Falcons’ struggles all the more frustrating for players and coaches, but Smith said it’s a source of confidence for him, a reminder that a few small tweaks and improvements can turn close losses into close victories.

“They’re all coming down to the wire,” Smith said. “If all of a sudden it was hopeless or morale was low, then yeah, that’s a completely different animal. You see that and you’re like, ‘There’s no hope.’ That’s not the case here. As frustrated as you feel, you have to look at it. The results are what they are, but there’s true evidence that we can right this thing. Even if you’re three games back, the last seven games matter. History will tell you that.”

Smith’s history also says his Falcons are 15-14 in one-score games with him as head coach, and that’s 7-2 in his first season, 5-8 last year and 3-4 this season, not necessarily trending in the right direction.

And for a team looking to end a run of close losses, the Saints aren’t an ideal opponent. New Orleans is 3-1 against Atlanta since Smith took over, sweeping last year’s series by a combined four points. The Falcons had a 26-10 lead in the fourth quarter of last year’s first meeting, only to lose 27-26, then came up three points short in the second matchup.

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The Falcons are uniquely positioned to be within reach of both a division title and a top-five draft pick, depending on how the next two months shake out. How many wins does Smith need to keep his job? He’s gone 7-10 in each of his first two seasons and is trending toward a similar record. If the Falcons are in position to use a high draft pick on a quarterback, are they sure he’s the coach they want guiding that young player?

The Falcons’ remaining seven games are bookended by the Saints — in Atlanta next week, then in New Orleans in Week 18. In between, they face two teams they’ve beaten in the Bucs and Panthers, and three opponents at .500 or worse in the Jets, Colts and Bears. That final stretch offers confidence, but when you’ve just lost to a one-win Cardinals team, it’s hard to know what’s ahead. Smith, despite six losses in his past eight games, remains optimistic about his team’s future.

“What you look at is the character,” he said. “When you hit adversity is when you’re going to find out who you are and really, what your culture is. … I believe in our guys and what we’re doing.”

Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.