Falcons’ playoff hopes nosedive with loss to lowly Panthers

National Football League

Updated Dec. 17, 2023 7:13 p.m. ET

The Falcons‘ up-and-down season took a major hit at the worst time Sunday, as Atlanta lost to a one-win Carolina team and no longer has control of its destiny as it relates to winning the NFC South.

Eddy Pineiro‘s field goal as time expired gave the Panthers a 9-7 win and dropped the Falcons to 6-8, a game behind the Bucs and Saints with three weeks to play. Atlanta now needs the Bucs to lose one of their remaining games to have a chance at a division title. The New York Times’ playoff simulator has the Falcons with just an 11% chance to make the playoffs.

Atlanta’s offense struggled Sunday, mustering only 204 yards of total offense and committing the game’s only two turnovers. The Falcons had the ball at the Panthers’ 18 with 7:35 left, in position to extend their lead, when quarterback Desmond Ridder was intercepted by Panthers safety Xavier Woods — another in a long season of red-zone turnovers.

Carolina followed with a 17-play, 90-yard drive to end the game, converting three first downs to set up Pineiro’s kick. Ridder wasn’t the only prominent Falcons player with a costly turnover. Rookie running back Bijan Robinson lost a fumble in the third quarter at the Atlanta 24, setting up a short field for a Panthers field goal. Robinson finished with just 14 yards on eight touches and the Falcons gave their late carries to Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson.

The Falcons had been 46-3 in their history when holding their opponent without a touchdown. The last time they lost such a game was in 1997, losing 9-6 to the Panthers. NFL teams holding opponents without a touchdown were 32-3 this season before Sunday’s games, and 142-11 since the start of 2019, winning 93% of the time.

Would a late-season collapse put coach Arthur Smith’s job in jeopardy? The Falcons finished 7-10 in Smith’s first two seasons, and are still in good position to match or exceed that record this year. It’s unknown how the team would handle his future if the Falcons miss the playoffs for the sixth straight season.

“There’s consequences when you lose, so these are natural questions, right?” Smith said during the postgame news conference. “So it’s NFL 101. The job is to win games.”

Just eight days ago, the Falcons were atop the NFC South standings with a 3-0 division record, but back-to-back losses to the Bucs and Panthers now have them in third place.

The NFC South is bunched closely enough that Atlanta could be back into a share of first place by Christmas. If the Saints lose Thursday against the Rams and the Bucs lose to the Jaguars next Sunday, the Falcons can be tied for the lead by beating the Colts. It’s still possible the division comes down to the final weekend, when the Bucs play at the Panthers and the Saints host the Falcons.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.