Herd Hierarchy: Commanders enter list as Seahawks, Packers slide

National Football League

Published Oct. 1, 2024 5:06 p.m. ET

The Washington Commanders sit atop the NFC East standings at 3-1, a surprise to just about everyone — except, perhaps, Colin Cowherd.

Yet the early-season excellence of Washington’s offense behind historic performances from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels cannot be ignored, which is why the Commanders have now made their way into the Herd Heirarchy heading into Week 5.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens have surged after two impressive wins following an 0-2 start, while the New York Jets tumbled out of the rankings an ugly loss to the Denver Broncos. The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers also gained ground on the Kansas City Chiefs after huge wins last week.

Check out Cowherd’s latest rankings below!

Herd Hierarchy Week 5

10. Seattle Seahawks (3-1, Last week 5)

Super Bowl odds: +4000

Cowherd’s thoughts: “I thought Seattle, missing their four best defensive, linemen looked great. Geno Smith, that dude throws a beautiful ball [and] is totally in tune with DK Metcalf. I like their running backs. I’m sorry, Geno leads the NFL in passing yards [and is] second in completion percentage. [Running back] Kenneth Walker, I was blown away. Seattle didn’t have their four best defensive linemen against the best O-line in the league. You knew they wouldn’t make stops. I thought Geno was exceptional on a Monday night on the road.”

Herd Hierarchy: Vikings reach Top 3, Commanders leap into Colin’s Top 10 of Week 5

9. Houston Texans (3-1, LW unranked)

Super Bowl odds: +1500

Cowherd’s thoughts: “Texans’ only loss came on the road to the Vikings. They got housed, didn’t have Joe Mixon, but they’re a top eight offense, top five defense, and I love C.J. Stroud. Joe Mixon is coming back. C.J. Stroud is a young quarterback. Did you see Caleb Williams this week when he got a run game with D’Andre Swift? Oh, Caleb looked pretty good. As good as C.J. Stroud is, and he’s got his weapons like Nico Collins, young quarterbacks especially – they need their running backs.”

8. Green Bay Packers (2-2, LW 4)

Super Bowl odds: +2500

Cowherd’s thoughts: “The Packers, it’s weird — they’re 0-2 with Jordan Love and 2-0 without him. They do lead the NFL in big plays. I like all their structure. Jordan Love hasn’t taken a lot of snaps because of the injury, and he’s just not quite ready to go. [In the] second half [against the Vikings], the offense looked better than the first half. They lead the NFL in takeaways. Green Bay is a feisty, aggressive defense, which is what their fans have been complaining about for years — ‘How come the defense can’t be as good as the offense?’ I still think Green Bay is an ascending team. It is a young team with a quarterback that comes in rusty. They’re going to be just fine.”

7. Washington Commanders (3-1, LW unranked)

Super Bowl odds: +5000

Cowherd’s thoughts: “I don’t know what to do with the Commanders, but they’re breaking every single NFL record offensively. Jayden Daniels, we thought was going to be like Lamar Jackson lite — is he, or is he just Lamar Jackson? I mean, kid’s incredible. He has five total touchdowns and six incompletions over the last two games. I do think [with] the Kliff Kingsbury [offensive coordinator] hire – and we predicted this – we thought Washington would be a playoff team. I think all flushing out the bad vibes, the bad owner, bringing an entirely new organization in owner-down, for the first time in a decade everything is good vibes and positivity. I don’t know where it lands. I don’t know when the regression is coming. But I thought Arizona was one of the better sides of the week, and they blew them out in Arizona.”

6. Detroit Lions (3-1, LW 6)

Super Bowl odds: +1000

Cowherd’s thoughts: “Jared Goff, once again, is the strength of a team and nobody wants to acknowledge it. In the last two weeks, he’s completing 88% of his throws. They’ve got an over-the-top receiver [Jameson Williams]. They have Amon-Ra St. Brown. They have two backs I like [and] a great offensive line. Don’t trust Dan Campbell in situational football. But here’s the reality with Detroit — it is hard not to be a good team when you have a dominating running game and a dominating O-line and a very capable Super Bowl quarterback. They’re just going to win a lot of games, they’re going to mash a lot of people, and it’s not always going to be pretty.”

5. Buffalo Bills (3-1, LW 2)

Super Bowl odds: +900

Cowherd’s thoughts: “They’re getting some of their linebackers who were injured back. They were a mess this past week, and they ran into a buzz saw. It’s called Lamar Jackson. He does that at home a lot. He blew out the Niners and the Lions last year, and Miami. I’m not selling my Buffalo stock. I think they have offensive balance between [Dalton] Kincaid and James Cook. The rookie receiver [Keon Coleman] looks special to me. I think Buffalo is going to be fine. They’ve been a roller coaster for years. All Kansas City games look the same. Buffalo doesn’t. Buffalo’s a little Dallas Cowboy s. They’re a little Mike Tyson, knockout or unraveling. That’s kind of their DNA. I still think they’re good.”

4. San Francisco 49ers (2-2, LW 10)

Super Bowl odds: +650

Cowherd’s thoughts: “So now they’re getting their guys back: Deebo [Samuel] and [George] Kittle. They don’t have Christian McCaffrey, but the reality is, they lead the NFL in time of possession. It’s still [Kyle] Shanahan, [Brock] Purdy, Deebo, Kittle, [Brandon] Aiyuk, [Jauan] Jennings. Come on! When this team is healthy, with or without Christian McCaffrey, it’s a really good football team. And again, Fred Warner is playing linebacker at a level we have not seen for a long, long time.”

3. Baltimore Ravens (2-2, LW 8)

Super Bowl odds: +800

Cowherd’s thoughts: “I’ll never sell my Ravens stock. They look like the fastest team in the league. If Kansas City’s got the fastest defense, they have the fastest offense. And, [Lamar Jackson] may never beat Patrick Mahomes, [but he has the] No. 1 total offense with Derrick Henry now. No. 1 rushing offense. They’re not very good on the back end — everybody’s got a flaw when you start paying your quarterback huge money. … I like Kyle Hamilton. Maybe they have a cornerback issue, but I’m not selling my stock. Derrick Henry leads the league in rushing with Lamar. Buffalo literally looked like they were waving the flag Monday night, like they had zero answers. Nine [offensive] yards per play.”

2. Minnesota Vikings (4-0, LW 3)

Super Bowl odds: +1400

Cowherd’s thoughts: “I don’t think it’s a fluke. I didn’t buy into the Saints. I’m not sure if I bought into the Jets after they beat New England. I buy into this team. Everything works. Their defensive coordinator [Brian Flores] is excellent. Their special teams are consistent. Their offense is amazing. They have the tall Sean McVay as a coach. They’re not only 4-0, they’re 4-0 against the spread. They’re beating people badly. [Sam] Darnold leads the NFL in touchdown passes, passer rating — and the defense leads the NFL in sacks. It’s not a star-studded defense — it’s not Kansas City, where you can see it completely disrupting people, and it’s the same two or three guys, Chris Jones every week wreaking havoc — it’s not that. But it’s good, and it’s exceptionally coached.”

1. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, LW 1)

Super Bowl odds: +500

Cowherd’s thoughts: “Mahomes is 18-14 when trailing by 10 or more points. That’s a silly stat. The other thing that we have to acknowledge [is] Rashee Rice had become a really, really elite receiver, and you cross your fingers, but [his injury is] trouble. Xavier Worthy is not a volume guy, but he is an over-the-top guy. Are they going to be, at the trade deadline, in the market for a receiver? I’m not quite sure. They won last year without Worthy. They didn’t even have an over-the-top receiver. Again, their structure is so good, but Mahomes has five picks and four have been ugly. I just kind of trust them. Every game looks the same. I’ve said this for two weeks — they look like [2010s] New England. Very good defensively, great coach [and] amazing quarterback.”

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