How one sportsbook came up with its Washington-Michigan CFP title game spread
Midway through the fourth quarter of Monday night’s College Football Playoff semifinal between Texas and Washington, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas hung Michigan as a 3.5-point favorite over the Huskies in the national title game.
It was a back-and-forth number crunch that started after the Wolverines bested Alabama at the Rose Bowl, which solidified half of the two-team championship showdown set for the following Monday at Houston’s NRG Stadium.
Even with the Longhorns still alive, the SuperBook opened for business.
Why wait?
If Texas rallies and wins, you refund the bets and move on.
“You have the one team set, so then you get in your mind what that team would be against the two remaining teams,” SuperBook vice president of risk management Jeff Sherman told FOX Sports. “You start batting numbers around during the [second semifinal] as it’s going on to see what makes sense.
“When we opened up, Washington led Texas by 13 points. If it didn’t get tight at the end and Washington would’ve won by double digits, I think the market would’ve settled around 3.5. But things got scary at the end.
“That susceptibility pushed the market up a point.”
Sharps bet Michigan -3.5 and -4 out of the chute at Sherman’s shop, and now almost every American sportsbook is dealing Michigan -4.5 with a total of Over/Under 55.5 combined points.
Truth be told, SuperBook’s lookahead number on Michigan-UW was -7, but yesterday’s price is not today’s price.
Adjustments must be made.
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Especially after Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. rifled left-handed missiles down the field with ease. The Heisman Trophy runner-up finished with 430 passing yards, most of which came in the first three quarters, and the Huskies‘ talented receiving corps balled out, too.
Meanwhile, Michigan’s defense sacked Jalen Milroe six times and held Alabama’s offense under 300 total yards for the first time this season. It might’ve been a rout if Michigan didn’t muff a punt in the first half.
So much for the Wolverines being soft.
“It should be a well-wagered game with split action,” Sherman forecasted. “We’ll write more public money than we’ll write sharp. The public will bet what they’ve last seen. I expect Washington moneyline to be a popular ticket after Penix’s performance against Texas.”
With 4.5 essentially a middle ground between two key football numbers, I thought it was a fair question to ask if the market was more likely to move to Michigan -3 or -6.
“Neither,” Sherman cracked with a laugh. “I think it’s more likely to go down, but the lowest point would be 3.5 if it ever got there. If it got to 6, we’re talking about resistance showing on the Huskies and their high-flying offense.
“I think Michigan -4.5 holds steady till gameday.”
Of course, everything will change if a respected bettor or group enters the chat. The SuperBook has a stable of winning bettors that are closely monitored behind the counter. Think of it like a push notification when the right ones strike.
“If it happens, we’ll respect that bet, move it accordingly and basically book toward the new number,” Sherman explained. “Even if we have more money from the public, we would book based on one of those wagers.”
“We’ll try and be on that side.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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