Is the NFL’s running back discussion about to change again?

National Football League

Updated Mar. 6, 2023 8:59 p.m. EST

Beauty truly is in the eye of the beholder — or the ball carrier, in this instance.

It feels like we’re due for a referendum on the value of running backs every few years or so. Dating back over the last decade, we’ve seen it bounce from a devalued position to a hot commodity and back again.

Sitting here on the cusp of a new league year, it’s hard to feel like backs are winning the fight right now. Several of the league’s highest-paid running backs are possible cap casualties, while others have uncertain futures. Packers Pro Bowler Aaron Jones has already agreed to a pay cut earlier this offseason, while Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette has been informed of his imminent release. One of the juicier bits of gossip coming out of the NFL Scouting Combine is that Tennessee is willing to trade Derrick Henry.

But with all of that said, all it takes is one team to decide the price is right. Speaking of trades, San Francisco recently dealt four draft picks for Christian McCaffrey, huge contract and all, in a trade that helped the 49ers reach the NFC Championship Game. Two of 2022’s Pro Bowlers, Miles Sanders and Saquon Barkley, look likely to hit big paydays in free agency in just one week’s time. And two franchises have already made sizable short-term investments in the position, with Las Vegas tagging Josh Jacobs and Dallas tagging Tony Pollard at the hefty rate of $10.09 million.

Honestly, no team better encapsulates the current running back landscape better than Pollard’s.

The Cowboys clearly aren’t blind to the effect Pollard had on their offense in 2022. Shouldering the biggest workload of his career, Pollard finished third in the NFL in yards per carry and fifth in explosive runs en route to his first 1,000-yard season and his first Pro Bowl bid. Considering the Cowboys‘ struggles to find reliable playmakers on offense, it’s understandable that they’d pay top dollar to keep him in the fold. That they’d do so even after Pollard sprained his ankle and broke his leg in the season-ending loss to San Francisco underscores the idea.

At the same time, the Cowboys can trace a good deal of their current financial problems to a different running back contract. It hasn’t yet been four years since they signed Ezekiel Elliott to a six-year, $90 million extension. In fact, since they re-signed Elliott well before his rookie contract expired, the three-time Pro Bowler has actually only played two of those six extra years.

As good as they might have felt about it back in 2019, the situation looks untenable heading into 2023. Despite averaging a career-worst 3.8 yards per carry last year, Elliott’s salary cap hit of $16.7 million is the largest in the league among running backs and the fifth-largest on his own team, trailing only the likes of Dak Prescott, DeMarcus Lawrence, Zack Martin and Tyron Smith.

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It’s a strange thought, but the Cowboys are likely going to pay Pollard $10.09 million while simultaneously either coercing Elliott into a massive pay cut or releasing him outright. To take it a step further, how ironic would it be if they ironed out a long-term extension with Pollard while coping with the consequences of Elliott’s?

That’s not likely to manifest anytime soon. The deadline to sign a tagged player for the long term isn’t until July 15, which provides plenty of time for negotiation.

Still, there’s all the potential in the world for a running back resurgence, even as situations like Elliott’s remind us of the pitfalls. Jacobs has every right to demand top dollar from the Raiders, having just won the rushing title at the age of 24. Fresh off a 1,300-yard, 10-touchdown season, Barkley’s earning potential will also be a central storyline of the new league year.

Then, there’s the newest crop of talent. As our own Ralph Vacchiano recently detailed, NFL teams have been averse to using big-time draft picks on recent years. But if ever there was a running back talent to buck that trend and get himself drafted highly, it’s Texas standout Bijan Robinson. And even if Robinson were to slip a bit in the draft order, it doesn’t have to hurt his long-term prospects — as Jacobs, formerly the No. 24 overall pick in the draft, can attest.

Robinson will have his chance to be the next flash point in the discussion. Because, again, we’re bound to rehash the subject at least once every few years. Until then, we’re about to get the latest read on how much the NFL likes or dislikes its ball carriers. One way or another, this batch of results looks likely to be particularly eye-opening.

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

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