Jacob deGrom’s absence would be felt most in playoffs for surging Rangers

Major League Baseball

DeGrom’s wide-ranging injury history was part of the reason the Mets didn’t match the Rangers’ lucrative five-year offer. The Mets, the club that drafted deGrom in the ninth round of the 2010 draft before he spent nine highly decorated but injury-filled seasons in Queens, knew they were letting a generational talent walk away. But the injuries, the injuries, the injuries.

The Rangers’ colossal risk on a hefty contract for deGrom backfired this week. The team had hoped to get him back by the end of June, but after further examining the inflammation in his right elbow, it was clear he needed another ligament surgery that will keep him off the mound for the next 12-18 months.

Where does that leave the Rangers, a soaring club that has won 22 of their last 29 games?

As usual, deGrom was brilliant when he was briefly on the mound this year. His 6-0 record, 2.67 ERA and 45 strikeouts across 30.1 innings and six starts helped stabilize Texas at the onset of this promising season. That level of excellence provided the groundwork for the 40-20 Rangers’ ability to leapfrog over the reigning world-champion Astros for first place in the AL West, with the second-best record in baseball just behind the Tampa Bay Rays, to boot.

Yes, the Rangers have been just fine in the six weeks since deGrom first landed on the injured list. But that doesn’t necessarily mean his loss will be easily conquered.

Texas enters its 61st game of the year with the second-best starting pitching ERA (3.19) in baseball. And since April 29, the day after deGrom went on the IL, the Rangers’ rotation sports the best ERA (2.84) and the most innings pitched (209) in MLB, as well as the fifth-best FIP (3.93) in the league.

Nathan Eovaldi, making his own case for baseball’s top pitcher of 2023, has been a significant reason the rotation has been able to stay steady without deGrom. It will be interesting to see how the 33-year-old’s special start (8-2, 2.34 ERA) evolves over the course of the season. Jon Gray, who has also enjoyed a solid start to the year, has been a big part of Texas’ early success. While Gray’s 2.51 ERA across 11 outings is impressive, his xERA of 4.39 tells us he may be getting lucky.

Then there’s the matter of the Rangers offense, a surging unit that flaunts the second-best wRC+ (124) and WAR (14.8) in MLB — again, second only to the Rays. Texas has outscored its opponents by 155 runs, the highest mark in MLB, and it’s not particularly close; the Rays are second at +132. The last squad to outscore its opponents by such a wide margin over a campaign’s first 60 games was the 1939 Yankees (+168).

Bruce Bochy, the Rangers’ first-year skipper who previously led the Giants to three world championships, has obviously been pleased with his lineup’s potency. But the 68-year-old expressed caution, understanding it’s too early in the season to make sweeping statements.

“That’s going to be tough to sustain, let’s be honest here,” Bochy told reporters this week of his red-hot offense.

And that’s exactly what deGrom’s role was supposed to be. When things are tough to sustain, deGrom (when healthy) is an anchor for his team, one capable of making the sky seem like the limit. When things get rocky, deGrom (when healthy) is capable of providing the 102 mph strength that can steady the ship. We saw it in his back-to-back Cy Young seasons in 2018-19, serving as the club ace while posting a 2.05 ERA over 421 innings in that two-year span. We saw it as recently as last postseason, when deGrom’s six-inning, eight-strikeout start against the Padres in Game 2 of an NL wild-card series gave the Mets their first playoff win since 2015.