Klatt: What to expect in Penn State-Illinois, Colorado State-Colorado and more

College Football

Published Sep. 15, 2023 2:19 p.m. ET

Week 3 of the college football season is upon us, and while this might not be the best slate of games, there are still several matchups I’m looking forward to.

I’ll be on the call for Saturday’s “Big Noon Kickoff” game between No. 7 Penn State and Illinois, so I won’t give a pick in my preview of that game. But I have picks for other notable games this weekend.

Here is a look at what to expect in four big-time games on Saturday.

No. 7 Penn State at Illinois (Noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app)

This Penn State team is one I’ve really liked since the preseason, and the Nittany Lions have looked really good so far at 2-0.

Drew Allar has been sharp so far this season. His talent has wowed me since I watched him during pregame warmups ahead of his first college game last year. He is sturdy, big, has a strong arm, but he’s also smooth with it. He’s not just out there throwing it recklessly, which is why I really believe in this Penn State team this season.

Will Drew Allar lead Penn State to a win over Illinois?

Beyond Allar, Penn State has run the ball well this season. James Franklin’s team is averaging about 135 rushing yards per game and five total touchdowns between its top-two running backs – Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton – which is impressive because this isn’t an offense that really features the run game.

Defensively, Penn State has elite players at every level. Chop Robinson and Abdul Carter have been great for the Nittany Lions at defensive end and linebacker, respectively. At corner, Kalen King might not have the intangibles that Joey Porter Jr. had in terms of his length and overall speed, but technically speaking, King’s an exceptional corner.

Illinois, meanwhile, has struggled. It’s just not a program that can recoup and reload quickly after it lost so much from its team last season, which includes former defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, who is now the head coach at Purdue. He was remarkable at Illinois with that defense, which had three players selected in the first 66 picks of the NFL Draft.

Isaiah Williams is their top threat on the offensive side of the ball, and QB Luke Altmyer has done some good things so far, but if you watched the Kansas game, this is an Illinois team that was handled.

Penn State being 14.5-point favorites on the road in this matchup makes sense to me.

Colorado State at No. 18 Colorado(10 p.m. ET)

This is a big in-state rivalry, but these two teams couldn’t be any more different at the moment.

Colorado State is not a good football team. It got absolutely housed in its Week 1 loss to Washington State, falling 50-24 at home. Granted, that is a very good Washington State team, but Colorado is certainly closer to that Washington State team in talent than it is to Colorado State. So, you can imagine where I think this game is headed.

Colorado State is starting Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi at quarterback, and he was the team’s backup entering the season, playing in mop-up duty for an injured Clay Millen. In addition, Colorado State doesn’t really have the speed to match up with Colorado on the outside.

Will Coach Prime and the Buffs stay undefeated vs. Colorado State?

Sure, Colorado can’t bank on the quarterback botching three snaps again, and the Buffs need to clean up their offensive line play. But do we really think Colorado State’s defensive front is as good as Nebraska‘s?

I detailed last week how well Shedeur Sanders plays when he has a clean pocket. He leads the nation in passing with 451.5 yards per game, and Colorado’s offense has already gotten big performances from Travis Hunter, Jimmy Horn, Dylan Edwards and Xavier Weaver. I expect Colorado’s offense to go off and for it to cover the 22.5-point spread on Saturday, especially as this team felt it should’ve beaten Nebraska by more than a score of 36-14 last week.

Western Kentucky at No. 6 Ohio State(4 p.m. ET FOX on FOX and the FOX Sports app)

You might be wondering, “Why is Joel taking time to discuss this game?”

Well, on paper, it looks like the 27.5-point spread is favoring Ohio State too much. There’s the narrative that Ohio State hasn’t been good enough offensively this season and its offensive line can certainly play better, which I detailed on my podcast after watching the film.

However, this is the first game that Kyle McCord will play after being named the full-time starter, meaning he’ll get all of the reps in practice this week and all of the reps during the game. Ryan Day coaches quarterbacks as well as anyone in the game, and with McCord having him in his back pocket, I expect Day to make the necessary corrections.

In fact, McCord helped get things going for Ohio State’s offense against Youngstown State last week. He established a connection with Marvin Harrison Jr., who recorded seven receptions for 160 yards and two touchdowns.

Will the Big Ten dominate in Week 3?

Western Kentucky can throw it all over the country. The Hilltoppers were second in passing last season and are in the top 15 in passing and scoring so far this season, which some might argue would make it more likely they cover the 27.5-point spread.

However, Day is going to desperately want to get his offense back on track with the Notre Dame matchup coming next week. He’s going to want to give McCord all the confidence in the world as they prepare to head to South Bend, though I think this is a bounce-back spot for the Buckeyes more than it is a look-ahead game.

I believe it’s gonna be pedal down for the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe on Saturday.

No. 8 Washington at Michigan State(5 p.m. ET)

This matchup looked a lot more enticing in the preseason, but recent developments surrounding Mel Tucker have obviously overshadowed this game.

Putting that aside, for now, I really like Washington as it heads to East Lansing. Michael Penix hasn’t done anything to make me change my stance that he’s a bonafide Heisman candidate. He has also owned the Spartans in his college career. Dating back to his days at Indiana, Penix has thrown for 1,014 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions in three games against Michigan State.

Penix’s wide receiver duo of Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan will likely help him own Sparty for the fourth time in his career. The duo has combined for 15 receptions and 227 receiving yards per game this season, scoring five total touchdowns as the Huskies have the clear advantage on the outside.

Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker has been suspended

Michigan State, meanwhile, is dealing with a messy situation right now as Harlon Barnett steps in for Tucker and Mark Dantonio returns to help on the sideline. But this is just not a very good Michigan State team, either, and that’s been clear for the better part of the last year.

Noah Kim has put up solid stats at quarterback for Michigan State so far, throwing for 285 yards per game and five touchdowns. But this is a much bigger step up in competition compared to what he’s seen in the first two games, in which Michigan State defeated Central Michigan and Richmond.

We all saw what Washington did to Michigan State last season, winning 39-28 in Seattle. I’ve seen nothing that suggests a better result for Michigan State this time around. That 16.5-point line is too small for Washington.

No. 15 Kansas State at Missouri(Noon ET)

Kansas State is only favored by 4.5 against Missouri. Does someone know something that I don’t? Everything seems to suggest that Kansas State is going to beat Missouri by multiple possessions.

First off, Kansas State won this matchup last year, 40-12. It wasn’t close. And just like we seem to do every year, all of us are overlooking Kansas State. This team is really good, and nobody wants to talk about it. This team won the Big 12 a year ago and beat TCU, and Michigan didn’t.

Since Will Howard became the starting QB at Kansas State, he is 6-1, with his only loss coming against a Bryce Young-led Alabama team. And now, they are facing a team in Missouri that does have a talented, former five-star recruit in Luther Burden, but I don’t think that will be enough. Last week, against Middle Tennessee, Missouri was held to just 2.4 yards per carry.

Will No. 15 Kansas State win on the road against Missouri?

On defense, Kansas State has eight sacks in two games and have only allowed one touchdown, which came last weekend in a 42-13 win over Troy.

Kansas State is going to win this game by multiple possessions … not a doubt in my mind.

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Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him on Twitter at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.