NASCAR playoff rankings: Is Kyle Larson the clear championship favorite?
The second round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will be filled with unpredictability.
Kansas Speedway has been one of the most dicey of the 1.5-mile tracks, Talladega is possibly the most unpredictable racing of any track and the Charlotte road course configuration has had some tweaks that has teams wondering how they will handle a couple of the new turns.
For the 12 drivers who advanced to the second round, it will be a nerve-wracking affair. They already have survived one round and now it’s on to the next.
NASCAR’s version of the playoffs — where those outside the playoffs still compete each week as well — runs over the final 10 races of the season. The first three rounds consist of three races, and the four winless drivers in the round lowest in points are eliminated, setting up four drivers who are eligible for the title in the season finale at Phoenix with the driver who finishes the best (they don’t get stage points) crowned the champion.
In each round, the advancing drivers’ point totals are reset (2000 in the first round, 3000 in the quarterfinal round, 4000 in the semifinal round, 5000 for the championship) with the playoff points they earned during the season added to their total except for the championship race.
The tracks:
- Opening round: Atlanta (winner-Joey Logano), Watkins Glen (winner-Chris Buescher, not a playoff driver), Bristol (winner-Kyle Larson). Advanced: Logano, Larson, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez. Eliminated from playoff contention: Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Harrison Burton.
- Quarterfinal round: Kansas (1.5-mile oval), Talladega (2.66-mile superspeedway), Charlotte (road course).
- Semifinal round: Las Vegas (1.5-mile oval), Homestead (1.5-mile oval), Martinsville (0.526-mile oval).
- Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval).
Here’s my playoff rankings based on best shot to win the title to the worst shot. Last week’s rankings went 1-to-16 but with the field now whittled to 12, it is just those 12 drivers.
1. Christopher Bell (Last Week: 1)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Position: 2nd, +24 on the playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 6th
Bell is coming off a solid opening round of the playoffs and now this will be the tough round for him. Neither Kansas nor Talladega are great tracks for him, but he does have a win on the Charlotte road course. The good thing for Bell is he has a 24-point cushion entering this round, so he can probably top-10 his way into the semifinal round.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)
2. Kyle Larson (LW: 3)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: 1st, +39 on the playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 1st
Larson carries momentum into this round after the win at Bristol and now heads to a place where he has two victories, including in the spring. He also was fourth at Kansas a year ago. The key for Larson is to run well enough at Kansas (preferably win) and have enough of a cushion that if he wrecks at Talladega, he’s still in decent shape entering Charlotte, where he has one career victory.
Prediction: Champion (no change)
3. Chase Elliott (LW: 6)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: 7th, +6 on the playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 3rd
Elliott has won at each of the three tracks in this round, and the second place at Bristol should make him feel like maybe his team has found a little bit more of a groove. That could be quite dangerous for the competition.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
4. Ryan Blaney (LW: 4)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Position: 5th, +11 on playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 12th
Blaney was solid at Bristol with a sixth but this next round could be a struggle. He has back-to-back 12th-place finishes at Kansas. He does have three career wins at Talladega and won the inaugural Charlotte road course race several years ago. But to count on more strong performances at Talladega and Charlotte — where calamity can happen more often than at other tracks — puts the pressure on him to have a good Kansas race.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (change from making the Championship 4)
5. Tyler Reddick (LW: 2)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota
Position: 3rd, +20 on playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 20th
Reddick won the regular-season title and then had a lackluster opening round of the playoffs. But since he won the regular-season title, he didn’t need that much luster and comfortably advanced. He won at Kansas a year ago and Talladega in the spring this year, so that should give him the confidence he needs to build even a bigger cushion going into the Charlotte road course. And he’s a good road course racer if he doesn’t build on that cushion. While he hasn’t done anything to get noticed the last three weeks, he’s still a driver to beat.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)
6. Denny Hamlin (LW: 7)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Position: 6th, +7 on the playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 5th
Hamlin made it out of the first round and now might feel a little more relaxed. He has four career wins at Kansas and two career victories at Talladega. He does have just one top-5 finish in six starts on the Charlotte road course. He won’t be able to rely on making up six points on the road course as he did this past weekend in the elimination race at Bristol, so the next weekend is key to gain points and then Talladega can’t be a repeat of his conservative Atlanta plan.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (change from eliminated in quarterfinal round)
7. William Byron (LW: 5)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: 4th, +14 on the playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 23rd
Byron has never won at any of the tracks in this round and has just a combined six top-5 finishes across the three tracks. And he, in a way, limps into the playoffs with a 17th-place finish at Bristol. His adequate-but-not-stellar summer has continued into the playoffs. He needs to find that mojo back before it is too late.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
8. Alex Bowman (LW: 8)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet
Position: 11th, -7 on the playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 7th
Bowman had two top-10s in the opening round but more importantly, he scored points in each of the six stages. If he does that in this round, he’ll advance. The last time he was at Kansas, he finished seventh. The last time he was at Talladega, he finished fifth. The last time he was at the Charlotte road course, he finished eighth. If he repeats those numbers, he’ll find himself in the semifinal round.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (change from eliminated in quarterfinal round)
9. Joey Logano (LW: 9)
Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Position: 8th, +4 on the playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 34th
Logano has had two weeks of breathing easy after winning Atlanta and now it’s back to reality. He’ll need to run better overall than where he has been running. Or win again. The latter might be more likely. He’s certainly done it before.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round
10. Austin Cindric (LW: 11)
Team Penske No. 2 Ford
Position: 9th, -4 on the playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 37th
Cindric has no top-10s at Kansas in his career, two top-10s at Talladega and none at the Charlotte road course. That wouldn’t give anyone much confidence. But Cindric has shown the ability to step up when it counts so don’t count him out (even though the prediction on the next line does).
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)
11. Daniel Suarez (LW: 12)
Trackhouse Racing No. 99 Chevrolet
Position: 10th, -6 on the playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 27th
Suarez has no top-5s in his career at the tracks in this round. So if that makes some folks not-too-optimistic about Suarez, that’s understandable. He’ll likely need some career days to advance. After Bristol, it’s hard to see that happening, but he does have the full focus of his organization.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)
12. Chase Briscoe (LW: 15)
Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford
Position: 12th, -7 on the playoff cutoff
May 2024 Kansas Finish: 21st
Briscoe says it should be time for people to stop doubting him and his team. He has one top-5 in his career at the tracks in this round. But this is a team with nothing to lose and can roll the dice. So there’s no doubt that he could advance. Just doubt that he will.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (change from eliminated in first round)
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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