NASCAR playoff rankings: Who is in good shape after Atlanta, who should worry?

NASCAR Cup Series

Updated Sep. 9, 2024 12:32 p.m. ET

HAMPTON, Ga. — Sorry Joey Logano fans, just because the two-time Cup champion won the NASCAR Cup Series playoff opener Sunday night at Atlanta Motor Speedway doesn’t mean that he is now the championship favorite.

In some years, that might be the case. It would signify riding the momentum of the regular season into the postseason.

But Logano, who finished the regular season 15th in the standings, didn’t have much momentum coming into the playoffs. Just too much inconsistency in his results to view him as a major player.

Now he could be a player as he already has advanced to the quarterfinal round.

NASCAR’s version of the playoffs — where those outside the playoffs still compete each week as well — runs over the final 10 races of the season. The first three rounds consist of three races and the four winless drivers in the round who are lowest in points are eliminated, setting up four drivers who are eligible for the title in the season finale at Phoenix with the driver who finishes the best (they don’t get stage points) crowned the champion.

In each round, the advancing drivers’ point totals are reset (2000 in the first round, 3000 in the quarterfinal round, 4000 in the semifinal round, 5000 for the championship) with the playoff points they earned during the season added to their total except for the championship race.

The tracks:

Opening round: Atlanta (winner: Joey Logano), Watkins Glen (road course), Bristol (0.533-mile concrete oval).
Quarterfinal round: Kansas (1.5-mile oval), Talladega (2.66-mile superspeedway), Charlotte (road course).
Semifinal round: Las Vegas (1.5-mile oval), Homestead (1.5-mile oval), Martinsville (0.526-mile oval).
Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval).

Here are my playoff rankings based on best shot to win the title to the worst shot:

1. Christopher Bell (Last Week: 2)

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota

Position: 3rd, +40 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 3rd

Bell takes the top spot in these rankings because Kyle Larson’s wreck puts Larson in a position where if he has another bad day, he possibly won’t advance out of this round. Bell has momentum with a fourth-place finish at Atlanta — his third consecutive top-10 finish — and now his crew chief Adam Stevens (surgery to both knees) has returned to the track. Everything is going well for the driver who won at Phoenix in the spring.

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)

2. Kyle Larson (LW: 1)

Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet

Position: 10th, +15 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 26th

His crash at Atlanta puts him in a position where he can’t afford another bad day in this round. Good thing for Larson is he has many more good days than bad days, and if he performs as he should the next two weeks, he advances to the next round. Despite the crash where his car snapped loose on him, Larson is the type of driver who doesn’t get fazed by such things. He has two wins at Watkins Glen and 11 top-10s in 16 starts at Bristol. He should be fine. Should.

Prediction: Champion (no change)

3. Tyler Reddick (LW: 3)

23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota

Position: 4th, +33 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 8th

A no-drama sixth-place finish at Atlanta for Reddick was a fine result in a round that is pretty much don’t beat yourself for anyone who entered with a significant amount of playoff points. Now he heads to Watkins Glen as a driver who is strong on road courses with three wins on them in his career. He remains the most consistently strong driver this year.

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)

4. Ryan Blaney (LW: 4)

Team Penske No. 12 Ford

Position: 2nd, +45 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 9th

Blaney nearly won Atlanta with a torn-up race car. That shows you just how good Blaney and his team are as they defend their Cup title. They think they can overcome anything. And they can. Watkins Glen isn’t his best track and he has two career top-5s at Bristol but avoiding a potential disaster at Atlanta is a good sign that there are good things to come.

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (change from being eliminated in semifinal round)

5. William Byron (LW: 6)

Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet

Position: 5th, +33 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 1st

Byron finished ninth at Atlanta, doing what he had to do to remain comfortable going into the next two races. He is the defending race-winner at Watkins Glen, and he has two career top-5s at Bristol. Would like to see a little more of the swagger from this team that it had in the first 10 races of the year, but there’s still a long way to go in the playoffs.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)

6. Denny Hamlin (LW: 5)

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota

Position: 14th, +2 points on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 2nd

Hamlin tried to roll the dice at Atlanta and hang out near the back in hopes of earning 20 points (a 17th-place finish) by missing wrecks. He ended up 24th to earn just 13 points as he was in a last-lap wreck. It’s strange to see this team play a defensive strategy rather than an offensive one. The good news? He has nine top-10s at Watkins Glen and won at Bristol in the spring. He could afford to play defense at Atlanta even though it bit him. At least that’s the way it looks at the moment.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (change from making it championship 4)

7. Chase Elliott (LW: 8)

Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet

Position: 8th, +24 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 32nd

An eighth-place finish for Elliott at Atlanta was a solid day for a driver who challenged for the regular-season title but has just one victory this year. For the first round, rattling off top-10s will allow him to advance. Atlanta was the key to that as he has two career wins at Watkins Glen and eight top-10s in his career at Bristol. He should feel good.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)

8. Alex Bowman (LW: 10)

Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet

Position: 6th, +27 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 23rd

Bowman had a huge day at Atlanta with a 48-point result as he went from being tied on the bubble to 27 points ahead of the cutoff. Watkins Glen is not his best track but he has four top-10s in his career at Bristol. If he can hold serve next week, he shouldn’t have to sweat too much to advance.

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)

9. Joey Logano (LW: 12)

Team Penske No. 22 Ford

Position: Advanced to Round of 12 with Atlanta victory

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 10th

The Atlanta victory was huge for Logano, who was 22nd at Bristol in the spring and couldn’t rely on a result there if he had to make it happen (he got in a wreck there last year to get knocked out of the playoffs). Now he can go to Watkins Glen and Bristol without worries. The team’s consistency would still create questions but now the team can focus on Kansas to open the quarterfinal round (Round of 12).

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)

10. Brad Keselowski (LW: 7)

RFK Racing No. 6 Ford

Position: 13th, -1 from the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 15th

After a 19th-place finish at Atlanta, which followed a 14th-place finish at Darlington, is the season slipping away from Keselowski? It sure feels like it. Now he can get his mojo back — he has four career top-5s at Watkins Glen and three career wins at Bristol. But he needs to turn things around in a hurry.

Prediction: Eliminated in first round (change from eliminated in quarterfinal round)

11. Austin Cindric (LW: 13)

Team Penske No. 2 Ford

Position: 7th, +27 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 16th

Cindric earned 19 stage points and 46 overall in his 10th-place finish at Atlanta. That will be enough to get him to the next round. At least it should. He has no career top-10s at Bristol or Watkins Glen, but he has shown enough strength on road courses in his career that he can earn enough points next week to feel comfortable with an average day at Bristol.

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (change from being eliminated in first round)

12. Martin Truex Jr. (LW: 9)

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota

Position: 15th, -19 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 6th

After being collected in a wreck through no fault of his own, Truex’s final full season continues to reel. He hasn’t finished top-20 in his last six races. I’m not saying he’s done for one reason — nothing seems to bother Truex too much. He needs a good race next week as he only has five top-10s in 34 starts at Bristol.

Prediction: Eliminated in opening round (no change)

13. Ty Gibbs (LW: 11)

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54 Toyota

Position: 12th, +1 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 5th

Gibbs lost valuable points (and a potential win) late at Atlanta, but the fact he ran well throughout much of the race is a sign that he can perform under the pressure of the Cup playoffs. There’s more pressure to come. He does have one top-5 at The Glen and one at Bristol (he has led 239 laps at Bristol) so he should have confidence he can continue to get the job done.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)

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14. Daniel Suarez (LW: 14)

Trackhouse Racing No. 99 Chevrolet

Position: 9th, +22 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 22nd

Suarez was among the big points gainers at Atlanta and his second-place finish gives him the buffer he needs to now control his own destiny. He has three career top-5s at the Glen and two top-10s at Bristol. If he can get some stage points in both those races and respectable finishes, he should advance.

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)

15. Chase Briscoe (LW: 15)

Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford

Position: 16th, -21 on the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 35th

Having nowhere to go in slamming into Kyle Larson during the first stage at Atlanta, Briscoe pretty much faces a must-win situation in either of the last two races. The good news is he won the last must-win situation at Darlington and performs well when his back is against the wall. The thing is, neither the Glen nor Bristol are tracks in his wheelhouse as far as potential wins. Top-10s? Yes. But that probably won’t be enough.

Prediction: Eliminated in opening round (no change)

16. Harrison Burton (LW: 16)

Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford

Position: 14th, -16 from the cutoff

2023-Watkins Glen Finish: 33rd

Considering his win at Daytona propelled him into the playoffs, the prevailing theory was that Buton needed to win another drafting race to advance. He didn’t, got caught up in a wreck in the final lap and now goes to two tracks where his average finish is 25th or worse. Uphill climb for sure.

Prediction: Eliminated in opening round (no change)

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.