NFL betting action report: ‘Hard to believe we made that much money’

National Football League

Published Jan. 8, 2024 11:57 a.m. ET

As the late window of Sunday NFL games wound down, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews looked over the roster of games, assessing how the day went behind the counter.

“It’s hard to believe we made that much money,” Andrews said.

That’s because, while it was a good day, the wins didn’t seem to offset the losses by much, at first blush. But those victories came in just the right spots.

Andrews and other oddsmakers from Las Vegas and across the country chimed in to break down the NFL Week 18 odds market, as the regular season came to a close.

Seeing the Futures

The key for Andrews and other bookmakers, as well, was blowing up futures and season-win-total tickets. And no futures ticket got blown up worse than the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South.

Trevor Lawrence & Co. were a popular preseason play to win the division. When the Jags were 8-3 through 12 weeks, and among Super Bowl contenders, it seemed a foregone conclusion that they’d win the AFC South.

But Jacksonville went just 1-5 in its last six games to finish 9-8. On Sunday, the Jaguars — needing a win to clinch the division and go to the playoffs — lost at Tennessee 28-20. In doing so, not only did the Jags hand the division to the upstart Houston Texans but they also failed to make the playoffs.

“The Titans were really good for us,” Andrews said. “It was good for division futures and for Jacksonville’s season win total. Same thing for the Falcons. The Saints were good for us.”

New Orleans punished Atlanta 48-17, giving the Falcons an 8-9 record. That record was short of their Over/Under season win total of 8.5. Preseason, and Atlanta was a darling of sharp bettors to hit the Over on its win total. Jacksonville’s season win total was 9.5.

John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, echoed Andrews’ sentiments on Jacksonville.

“The Jaguars losing was good for our division futures position,” Murray said. “And the Texans winning [the AFC South] was very good.”

Houston topped Indianapolis 23-19 in Week 18 to finish 10-7 and claim the division crown.

CJ Stroud, Texans clinch playoff berth vs. Gardner Minshew, Colts

Jag-Knife

Yes, the Jaguars felt the agony of defeat in Week 18. So too did a couple of bettors.

Back in April, a BetMGM customer put a hefty $55,000 on Jacksonville -150 to win the AFC South. If the Jags won the division title, the bettor would’ve profited $36,666.67, for a total payout of $91,666.67.

If Jacksonville had won just two of its last six games, then that bettor gets a really nice cash-out.

Then there’s the harrowing betting tale of a DraftKings Sportsbook customer who put together a stellar seven-leg parlay ticket on May 20:

Brooks Koepka +1000 to win the PGA Championship
Denver Nuggets -115 to win the NBA Finals
Vegas Golden Knights +175 to win the Stanley Cup
Detroit Lions +130 to win the NFC North
Kansas City Chiefs -165 to win the AFC West
San Francisco 49ers -150 to win the NFC West
Jacksonville Jaguars -150 to win the AFC South

By the end of NFL Week 17, six of the seven legs on this ticket were in. All that remained was Jacksonville winning the AFC South. If the Jags had gotten there, the bettor would’ve turned $500 into a whopping profit of $290,150.

So pour one out for that ticket and that bettor.

Touchdown Takedown

Prior to the New York Jets–New England Patriots clash in a snowstorm, BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini commented on the ever-plunging total, which got down to 28.5.

“Jets-Patriots has a crazy low total. We’re getting a lot of No TDs bets,” Cipollini said.

For more than 58 minutes in the Jets-Pats tilt, neither team could find the end zone. But as is often the case in foul-weather games, a fluky play eventually pops up. In this case, it was Jets running back Breece Hall snapping off a 50-yard TD run with 1:47 remaining.

The jaunt came on a second-and-seven play, with New York up 9-3. So once Hall got the first down, he could’ve slid down, and the Jets likely could’ve run out the clock. Instead, he took it to the house and that provided a notable win for the house.

“It was like the fourth favorite for first TD scorer,” Cipollini said of the No TD option. “I’ve never seen that.”

Yours truly was among those betting on no touchdown scored, at +1740, meaning a $100 bet would win $1,740 for a total payout of $1,840. But Hall made that point moot.

Paying the Bills

The regular season ended with Sunday night’s Buffalo Bills–Miami Dolphins showdown, with the winner taking the AFC East crown and the conference’s No. 2 seed. It was easily the most attractive matchup on the NFL Week 18 oddsboard.

With Josh Allen and the Bills on a roll and the Dolphins banged up, the public was definitely backing Buffalo. So most oddsmakers were in agreement that Miami was the need, perhaps even to make the weekend a winner behind the counter. That was the case at TwinSpires Sportsbook.

“Our weekend comes down to tonight’s game. We need Miami, especially in the futures market,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said pregame. “We saw multiple five-figure wagers on the Bills to win the AFC East earlier in the year. A Miami win makes our weekend.”

But the Dolphins weren’t up to the task. Buffalo trailed 14-7 at halftime, then rallied for a 21-14 victory as a 2.5-point road favorite. So the public betting masses ended the regular season by cashing tickets.

Josh Allen’s Bills overcome the Dolphins, clinch AFC East

Back To School

College Football Playoff odds take center stage Monday, with the championship game on tap in Houston. No. 1 Michigan takes on No. 2 Washington, with the Wolverines a consensus 4.5-point favorites. At South Point, however, Michigan is -5.

“Right now, we’re in a really good position,” Andrews said Sunday night. “They’re betting the ‘dog on the moneyline and the favorite on the point spread. So it’s a little like a Super Bowl.

“A Michigan win and a Washington cover would be perfect right now. But a lot can happen between now and kickoff. And I’m sure it will.”

Said kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Speaking of College Football Playoff Championship Game odds, the biggest reported bet was revealed over the weekend. A Caesars Sports customer put $200,000 on Michigan moneyline -195. If the Wolverines win, then the bettor profits $102,564, for a total payout of $302,564.

No surprise, Caesars also saw some major-wager activity in the NFL Week 18 odds market. Among the big plays:

$120,000 Bills -2.5 (-120) at Dolphins. Bettor profits $100,000, for a $220,000 total payout.
$110,000 Patriots -1.5 vs. Jets. Yeah, this did not go well, as noted above.
$70,000 Texans -2 at Colts. Bettor profits $63,636, for a $133,636 total payout.

Undoubtedly, there will be more high-roller dollars feeding into the CFP title matchup. BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said as much over the weekend.

As for your own wagers, as always, keep them reasonable, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Enjoy the title game!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas