NFL betting action report: ‘We’ll be rooting for the Dolphins on Saturday night’

National Football League

Published Jan. 11, 2024 1:21 p.m. ET

Yes, everyone is talking about the likely frigid weather and plummeting total in the Pittsburgh Steelers–Buffalo Bills game.

Or the even worse, well-below-zero weather anticipated for the Miami Dolphins–Kansas City Chiefs clash.

Or the storied rivalry renewed between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. And that’s definitely an intriguing contest Sunday afternoon on FOX and FOX Sports app.

But Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook, pointed to a matchup he thinks beats all those for interest in the Super Wild Card Weekend odds market.

“I would say Rams at Lions is fun. The Lions finally get to host a playoff game, and they have to face Matt Stafford, who played in Detroit forever,” Degnon said.

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors help dive into that Los Angeles-Detroit Sunday night showdown and more in this week’s NFL betting nuggets.

Line Movement Belies Betting

Detroit opened -3 (-120) on Sunday night at The SuperBook and moved to -3.5 (even) Monday. At midweek, the Lions are again -3, with Degnon noting sharp play on the Rams +3.5. And overall, L.A. is the more popular play thus far.

“Ticket count is about 2/1 in favor of the Rams, and there’s a lot more money on the Rams to this point, on straight bets and parlays,” Degnon said, though he anticipates a shifting of gears as Sunday night nears. “I could see the public coming in on the Lions closer to kickoff. But right now, we’re definitely rooting for the Rams.”

Rams-Lions has the highest total of any game on the wild card oddsboard. The SuperBook opened and remains at 51.5.

“Tickets and money are all on the Over. That’s not surprising in a game like this,” Degnon said.

Both teams are coming in hot on Overs, as well: The Over is 6-1 in Los Angeles’ last seven games and 7-2 in Detroit’s last nine games.

Nick Wright’s Tiers: Wild Card Edition

NFL Sharp Side

Professional bettor Randy McKay is involved in the Rams-Lions tilt, which kicks off at 8 p.m. ET Sunday. He got in on the Lions -3.

“I feel this number is cheap. It should’ve been around the 4.5 range, but the market and the modules like the Rams,” McKay said. “The Lions are a different team at home. Will the young Rams be able to come into a hostile environment and cover the number?”

McKay doesn’t think so. And he knows of what he speaks.

In DraftKings Sportsbook’s High-Roller NFL Pick ‘Em Pool, McKay was an investor in the first-place entrant, which won $50,000. McKay also had two top-50 entries — 14th and 48th — in the Circa Sports Circa Million V NFL picks contest, cashing twice among a total of 5,274 entries.

In the Steelers-Bills matchup at 1 p.m. ET Sunday, McKay is on the double-digit road underdog. He’s taking Pittsburgh +10, despite the absence of star linebacker T.J. Watt (knee).

“The T.J. Watt injury is tough for this Steelers team, and we have seen this line go up,” McKay said. “I believe it has gone up too high, and the weather — including very gusty winds — will help the underdog keep it close. And maybe the Steelers have a shot against the Bills, who come off a tough Sunday night win at Miami.”

McKay also crafted a two-team moneyline parlay of Chiefs-to-Cowboys, at +105.

“Dallas is a dominant team at home, and we have another young team in Green Bay, which got hot late to make the playoffs,” McKay said. “Kansas City is another weather situation. It’s supposed to be freezing in K.C., with high wind gusts. Miami is banged up on defense, as well. The Dolphins will look like fish out of water in Kansas City.”

Chiefs facing all the pressure against the Dolphins?

Hail to the Chiefs

Kansas City probably won’t love Saturday night’s predicted sub-zero wind chill — but Miami will love it a whole lot less, one can presume. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs as 3.5-point home favorites, and the line is up to -4.5 for the defending Super Bowl champions.

“There are more tickets and more money on the Chiefs, on straight bets, on the moneyline, in parlays across the board,” Degnon said. “We’ll be rooting for the Dolphins on Saturday night.”

Weather impacted this total, too, though not nearly to the degree of the Steelers-Bills total. The Dolphins-Chiefs opening total was 45, and it quickly dropped to 43 at The SuperBook on Sunday night. But it’s since rebounded to 44.5.

“We took sharp money on Over 43.5,” Degnon said. “There are more tickets on the Under, but more money on the Over.”

Pittsburgh-Buffalo had an opening total of 40.5 and is down to 35.5.

“We still need the Under, actually. We have more tickets and money on the Over,” Degnon said, before addressing spread/moneyline concerns. “The Bills are more heavily involved in parlays, spread and moneyline. But in terms of straight bets on the spread, there are more tickets and money on the Steelers.

“The best-case scenario would be a Steelers outright win, to kill all the parlays and teasers. People are looking at the Bills as free money in a parlay.”

Buffalo opened as a 10-point favorite and went to -9.5 a couple times early in the week, but has been steady at -10 since Monday night.

Degnon also addressed the bookends to this weekend’s Wild Card odds market: Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans on Saturday, and Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.

Browns vs. Texans: Cleveland opened -1.5 on the road and sped to -2.5. “Ticket count is about 2/1 on the Browns, but we actually have more money on the Texans. We took some sharp money early in the week on Texans +2.5 (even). I think we’ll see the public more so be on the Browns.” Kickoff is at 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday.
Eagles at Buccaneers: Philly moved from -2 to -2.5 Sunday night at The SuperBook, then advanced to -3 Tuesday. “Ticket count is close, but there’s more money on the Eagles, in straight bets and parlays. This won’t necessarily be one-way action, but I think we’ll end up rooting for the Bucs.” Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET Monday.

Bills double-digit favorites over Steelers on Super Wild Card Weekend

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There hasn’t been much in the way of major wagers yet for Super Wild Card Weekend. But there are some notable Super Bowl futures wagers getting more interesting as the playoffs begin.

That includes a bet at Caesars Sports that was made way back on the opening Sunday of the NFL season. A bettor put $100,000 on Cowboys +1600 to lift the Lombardi Trophy. If Dallas goes the distance, that bettor profits a hefty $1.6 million, for a $1.7 million total payout.

A savvy DraftKings Sportsbook customer hit the Buffalo Bills at one of their lower points in the Super Bowl odds market. On Dec. 8, the bettor put $7,360 on Buffalo +4000, for a potential profit of $294,400 and total payout of $301,760. Buffalo is now the +650 third choice at DraftKings, behind only San Francisco (+220) and Baltimore (+310).

Speaking of Baltimore, the Ravens drew a $10,000 play at +1600 in October at DraftKings. That represents potential profit of $160,000, for a $170,000 total payout.

Of course, there are several flier tickets, as well, on the Browns, Steelers, Packers etc. But the biggest flier of all at DK is a $10,935 bet on Texans +7000 to win it all, made in mid-November. If C.J. Stroud and Houston do the pretty much unthinkable, that customer would win $765,450, for a $776,385 total payout.

Here’s hoping all of you at least have, oh, maybe a $20 or $50 or $100 futures bet still live as the playoffs start.

Enjoy Super Wild Card Weekend!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas