NFL, College Football betting action report: ‘We’re gonna be rooting for Miami’

National Football League

Updated Jan. 4, 2024 11:33 a.m. ET

For oddsmakers and bettors, the last week of the NFL regular season is night and day from every previous week. Teams with nothing to play for. Teams with everything to play for. Sometimes in the same game. And the same goes for player motivations in the NFL Week 18 odds market.

“It’s basically an information week, like preseason games,” professional bettor Randy McKay said, while citing one element he’s looking into: “Will a team rise up for what will be a coach’s last game?”

Could McKay be talking about, oh, I don’t know — Bill Belichick?

Read on and find out, as oddsmakers and sharp bettors help dive into this week’s NFL and college football betting nuggets.

The Last Shall Be First

The final game of the NFL regular season is unquestionably the marquee matchup of Week 18. The surging Buffalo Bills travel to face the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night, with the winner claiming the AFC East and No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs.

So both teams have plenty to play for. In fact, Buffalo is in the playoffs with a win, and could be out — depending on tiebreakers — with a loss. The Bills are 3-point road favorites.

“Right now, ticket count on the spread is about even. There’s more money on the Bills, though,” said Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook.

At midweek, multiple sportsbooks seem to be in that same position, generally with more tickets and money on Buffalo. DraftKings is reporting 55% of spread bets/65% of spread money on the Bills, who are also taking a modest majority of moneyline action — to just win the game, regardless of final margin.

The Bills are on a four-game win streak, while the Dolphins are coming off a humiliating 56-19 loss at Baltimore. Miami is also dinged up on both sides of the ball, particularly with key offensive players. Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) and Jaylen Waddle (ankle) both sat against Baltimore.

And Tyreek Hill not only has an ankle issue, but also had to deal with his house catching on fire Wednesday. Thankfully, there were no injuries.

“I feel like we’re gonna be rooting for Miami. The moneyline parlays will add up on Buffalo, so I expect to need the Dolphins at kickoff Sunday night,” Degnon said.

Bills (-3) favored to beat Dolphins in Week 18 & win AFC East

NFL Sharp Side

Now, about that comment alluding to Bill Belichick: McKay is indeed on New England this week. The Patriots are 1.5-point home favorites against the New York Jets. But McKay is eschewing the point spread.

“I did play some New England moneyline -135,” he said, while lamenting the lack of better betting opportunities in Week 18. “The last week used to be great. Back in the day, the NFL didn’t match up the scenarios/kickoff times. So there used to be nice correlation for parlays and moneyline parlays.

“Now, it’s an information-based week, either trying to get ahead of odds moves or waiting to see which ones moved too much.”

In that waiting-to-see category, McKay might make a move on the Dallas Cowboys–Washington Commanders game, a 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday matchup on FOX and the FOX Sports app. Midweek, the Cowboys are 13-point favorites.

If this number gets to 14 or more, though, in what might be Commanders coach Ron Rivera’s last game, McKay will be on Washington. Not just because of his Week 18 coaching theory but also based on him liking the Commanders getting two touchdowns and the prospect of foul weather keeping things close.

As of late Wednesday night, the D.C. forecast for the weekend calls for rain and snow Saturday. There’s not much chance for precipitation Sunday, but during the game, temperatures will likely be in the 30s, with light winds of 5-10 mph.

Can Michigan’s defense stop Washington’s passing game to win the National Championship?

Back To School

The College Football Playoff championship game takes place Monday night in Houston. As of Wednesday night, No. 1 Michigan is a consensus 4.5-point favorite against No. 2 Washington.

College football betting expert Paul Stone often looks at the standard markets of the point spread, moneyline or totals. But in this instance, he’s locked in on a player prop: Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy Over 21.5 rushing yards.

Stone noted that McCarthy isn’t called upon to run the ball in the Wolverines’ offense. But the QB has 601 career rushing yards, averaging almost 4 yards per carry. Stone expects Jim Harbaugh & Co. to lean into McCarthy at least a little in the run game, since it’s such a high-stakes showdown.

“McCarthy is athletic and a capable runner,” Stone said. “When you’re playing for the gold ball, there’s no tomorrow. So I expect both teams to pull out all the stops. I look for Michigan to call McCarthy’s number at least a couple of times on designed runs. He’ll pick up some yards on scrambles, as well.”

NFL Rocks on FOX

FOX and the FOX Sports App host a couple games with playoff implications this week, including: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers, with Tampa controlling its playoff destiny; and Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders, with Dallas a big favorite to clinch the NFC East.

Bucs-Panthers kicks off at 1 p.m. ET Sunday, the same time as Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints. The Bucs, Falcons and Saints all still have a shot at the postseason. But the Bucs have the simplest path: win and they’re in.

Tampa opened -5.5 on the road at The SuperBook. On Wednesday night, the line dipped a full point to Bucs -4.5. However, Degnon said that’s not indicative of action on this NFC South contest.

“It’s one-way traffic on the Bucs — straight bets, parlays, moneyline parlays,” he said. “The public is getting involved. It’s all Bucs money, and I don’t see that changing.”

Cowboys-Commanders opened at Dallas -13.5 and is down a notch to -13 at The SuperBook. With the Cowboys such big favorites, bettors aren’t really enthused by this 4:25 p.m. ET matchup yet.

“There are more tickets and money on the Cowboys, straight bets and parlays. It’s nothing too significant, though,” Degnon said.

Degnon also touched on Eagles–Giants and Texans–Colts, along with Falcons-Saints, in which both teams need to win and get some help to make the playoffs.

Eagles at Giants: Philadelphia opened -6 and is down to -5 at The SuperBook. “We actually have more tickets and money on the Giants. It surprises me a little bit. The Eagles haven’t looked great lately. But I think betting could change by kickoff. I could see the Eagles being a popular parlay play.”
Texans-Colts: Indianapolis opened -1, but the line is at Houston -1 late Wednesday night, for a Saturday night game in Indy. “We have more tickets and money on the Texans. I could see the public leaning Texans, but I don’t think it’s gonna be lopsided. It’s not gonna be one-way traffic, but we’ll be rooting for the Colts.”
Falcons-Saints: This line has seen notable movement, with the Saints dropping from -5 to -3 (-120) at home. “It’s about 3/1 ticket count in favor of the Falcons, and a lot more money on the Falcons, too. We took some respected play at +4.5 and +3.5.”

Cowboys hold 3rd best SB odds, Ravens & 49ers round out top 3

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Some of the biggest bets of the college football season went up in smoke in the CFP semifinals. And the biggest one to tumble was the last of the bunch: Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale’s $1 million wager on Texas +270 to win the national championship, placed on Dec. 29.

Texas made a spirited comeback late against Washington in the Sugar Bowl, Monday’s second semifinal, but fell short 37-31. So Mattress Mack’s shot at a $2.7 million win is gone.

Additionally, a BetMGM customer wagered $205,500 in the preseason on Alabama +600 to win the title. That represented a potential $1.233 million win. But the Crimson Tide lost to Michigan 27-20 in overtime in the Rose Bowl, the opening semifinal.

However, a Caesars Sports customer is alive and kicking with a $50,000 Michigan +850 bet to win it all, in Monday’s title game vs. Washington. If the Wolverines get the job done, the bettor will profit $425,000, for a $475,000 total payout.

On the opposite sideline, in September, a BetMGM customer put down a much more modest $4,000 on Washington to win the title. But the bettor did so at odds of +2000. So if the Huskies hoist the trophy, that customer will profit a tidy $80,000, for an $84,000 total payout.

As for the semifinals themselves, Caesars reported a $150,000 bet on Michigan moneyline -125 vs. Alabama. The bettor profited $120,000, for a $270,000 total payout.

Beyond the above bets on the CFP championship, there’s not much else to report on Washington-Michigan or NFL Week 18. But most certainly, plenty of high-dollar plays will roll in over the weekend.

Feel free to enjoy those wagers vicariously — or root against them, if that’s your thing — while keeping it reasonable yourself. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the big football betting weekend!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas